4:45 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (25th February)

WOLVERHAMPTON 4.45 Div I 

This is a poor apprentice jockeys handicap for horses rated 55 and below, I did my analysis on this race and wasn't sure if I was going to have a bet or not, I had marked Okaldi as a possible lay if of value to do so, as its not been in good form and may be better over further, I only have 3 horses with a recorded speed figure rating, Peachey Carnehan 3/1 who might set the pace to the race and is my 3rd top rated but only 1lb behind Royal Heart who sits in 2nd top spot but my top rated is KNOCKABOUT QUEEN 10/1 out of the Michael Harrington stable and is usually held up for a late run, I was originally going to back this one along with Peachey Carnehan who might get an easy lead and then prove hard to catch and I might still have a covering bet on the front running 3rd top rated just in case it does get a soft lead and holds on for the win. 

Knockabout Queen 22/1 9th -1pt 

Lay bet Okaldi +1pt

Total 0pt 

WOLVERHAMPTON 5.15 Div II 

This 2nd division isn't any better but according to the early tissue prices Twentysharesofgrey 11/8 is forecast to be the 6/4 favourite I'm not sure if this horse either needs a longer distance or if this surface isn't its favoured one but has won over this course over a longer distance so it might be the former, and I think it might have been flattered when winning last time out at Southwell in a relatively slow run race where it was able to track the leaders but I think the early pace might be a bit quicker in this race which will perhaps see it staying on at the finish but maybe too late for the win but in its defense this race wont take much winning but at the price I think its worth laying. My top rated is Barrington 7/2 who is also still a maiden after 29 previous AW races but is the only known front running type in the field so could go well and the trainer has a 17% win ratio in apprentice jockey races, GLORIOUS CHARMER 4/1 is my 2nd top rated but hasn't won on the AW from 21 previous attempts but this one is also trained by Michael Harrington who has a 20% win ratio in apprentice jockey races, I think the stable has set out to win this race and now it is split into 2 divisions will the trainer have one winner or win both divisions, i will certainly back both of the Michael Harrington horses expecting at least one of them to win but also have a covering bet on the 2 I think will lead in each division of the race. PS this is a race for apprentice jockeys who can carry their whips but are not allowed to use them which makes these races even harder to analyse properly, I do keep a fair amount of data about individual horses but I haven't got a clue which horses will run to their best without the use of the whip so any stakes have to be kept fairly low and I guess they might be races to leave alone, that's up to you.

Glorious Charmer 5/1 1st +5pts

Lay bet Twentysharesofgrey +1pt 

Total +6pt

Total on the day 6pts

Lay bets must be priced in single figures at SP or no bet  

2:45 Lingfield Racing Tips (4th February)

LINGFIELD 2.45 

This is one of those lowly stakes races and to make things worse there isn't any known front running types in the race, I think that Cool Spirit 9/2 is better over a shorter distance and might be worth laying if the price is right but that will be hoping the early pace is fast enough to ensure it doesn't last home, I could also lay *Million Reasons 11/4 who is forecast to be the favourite here won last time out in a slow run race so may have been flattered and Ocean Eyes 7/2 who was 2nd that day is weighted to reverse the form in this race, Perfect Symphony 10/1 is another that looks better over a shorter distance and might be worth taking on with a lay bet, as for winning this race I will be backing 2 horses, KNOCKABOUT QUEEN 9/2 who is my top rated on just recent, 2021/22 c/d speed figures and is usually held up for a late run so will be hoping the early pace is strong enough for the leaders to be tiring as this one starts to run on, the same applies to my other bet INDEPENDENCE DAY 4/1 as this one is also a hold up type and this ones best time comes from 2020 but did record a time last year at Newcastle to show it has still got enough to win this race if on song. 

*NR

Independence Day 8/1 3rd -1pt

Knockabout Queen 9/2 6th -1pt

Lay bets Cool Spirit  -2.25pts

Total -4.25pts

NEWCASTLE 4.45 

Only 6 runners with only Blazing Hot 3/1 been known to lead before although this one is versatile with its racing tactics and doesn't have to lead but could attempt to do so here and could be dangerous if allowed a soft lead, I will look to lay Ubaahha 12/1 if its a single figure price at the off, Ginato 15/2 has a good speed figure but is still a maiden on the AW surfaces after 11 attempts plus its been over 80 days since the stable last had a winner which is off-putting and the jockey is 0-7 for the stable, my money will be riding on DEEVIOUS BEAU 5/2 who has the best Southwell rating and 2nd top on this surface at Wolverhampton and it has good jockey stats making me think connections are expecting a big run here but is a bit shorter in price than I was expecting but hey ho a winners a winner. 

Deevious Beau 9/2 3rd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

NEWCASTLE 5.45 

The early pace in this race could be set by Mokaman and/or Fine Wine 8/1 although I think the latter may prefer the Polytrack surface and is one I will look to lay if its a single figure price at the off, others I will be looking to lay for various reasons are Sugar Baby 3/1, Lazyitus 8/1 and One Hart 6/1, if TATHMEEN 9/1 reproduces its best time from last year it would be winning this race with a bit in hand and it recorded an even better rating from 2020 so will be carrying some of my money but I will also be backing THE THIN BLUE LINE 7/2 who recorded a good rating from Southwell, this is its debut over this c/d but if repeating its best Southwell speed figure it would have a very good chance, (I have sort of contradicted myself saying both horses could win this race it is down to the fact that with Southwell having the new Tapeta surface installed 2 months ago it is still hard to compare those ratings against the Newcastle and Wolverhampton ratings).

Tathmeen 9/1 3rd -1pt 

The Thin Blue Line 7/2 7th -1pt 

Lay bet Sugar baby +1pt 

Total -1pt

Total on the day -6.25pts

1:33 Lingfield Racing Tips (2nd November)

LINGFIELD 1.33 Div I

Not the best of races even for this low class affair, the early pace may be set by We’re Reunited but this one hasn't any course and distance form to its name and it would need to improve on its best time recorded at Wolverhampton and it could be a danger if allowed an easy lead, Sands Of Time would maybe struggle to stay the distance if there is a fast early pace but who knows whats going in this race, I expect Queen Of Burgundy will be the favourite after winning last time out over 7 furlongs but its best time over this distance needs improving on to win this race but a win can rejuvenate a horse, I might well have put GREY GALLEON 9/1 who is my top rated on just 2021 c/d times, forward as my sole selection in this race but for the fact that its still a maiden on artificial surfaces from 18 attempts which is a bit off putting but does have a positive looking jockey booking so i will take a bit of insurance and also back COME ON GIRL 7/1 who is actually rated 1lb higher using this ones best time from 2020 here. 

Come On Girl 7/1 3rd -1pt 

Grey Galleon 9/1 6th -1pt 

Total -2pts

LINGFIELD 2.03 Div II

This 2nd division isn't any better and in depth looks worse plus there isn't any known front running types amongst them, Sir Hector is my 3rd top rated but the trainer is 0-9 in the last 2 weeks and has a poorish 8% win ratio at this course and the jockey is 0-3 for the stable, Clashaniska comes out 2nd best but this ones trainer is 0-13 in the last 2 weeks and is 2-90 at this course, my top rated is KNOCKABOUT QUEEN 11/1 (EW) but this trainer is 0-5 in the last 2 weeks but does have a 18% win ratio at this course and I hope it might be worth a small each way punt. 

Knockabout Queen 16/1 8th -2pts 

Total -2pts

LINGFIELD 2.33 

A 9 runner 5 furlong dash with 2 front running types, I'm not sure if I can find anything of value to lay in this race although Koropick 7/1 will have to improve on its best AW speed figure which was recorded on the tapeta surface at Newcastle but in its defence it hasn't run on this surface before, my top 2 ratings are the front runners so the one that could prosper if they go off too fast and fade is Arzaak so this one could at least be worth an each way interest, Howzak won last time out at Chelmsford in a rating that makes it my top rated on overall figures by 2lbs and this is its debut on this surface, I expect it will be the favourite and maybe a worthy one as well but i think the value call is going with THEGREYVTRAIN 11/1 (EW) who might be 2nd top rated overall it is top rated on just c/d times and for a front runner it has the plum stall 1 draw and as usual at a double figure price it has to be an each way wager. 

Thegreyvtrain 11/1 7th -2pts 

Total -2pts  

NEWCASTLE 6.00 Div I

I can see a couple of known front runners in this 1st division and I'm hoping my top rated selection can lead all the way while Ustath will make sure the early pace is a true one, I will look to lay Mr Trevor 4/1 if a single figure price as I think this distance is either too far for it or the surface isn't ideal or as usual maybe both and I could also add One Last Hug 11/2 for exactly the same reasons,, SLEIGHT 9/2 finished 3rd last time out in a time that's good enough to be top on just c/d times but might require a degree of luck from stall 7 for a hold up type of horse, I have got CHAMPAGNE SUPERNOVA 5/1 rated a few spots higher using its best time from Lingfield while its best time on this surface at Wolverhampton would be good enough for 2nd top spot and I am hoping this is the one that will set the pace to the race but I think i have to back both of them to cover the angles. 

Champagne Supernova 5/1 5th -1pt 

Sleight 11/2 6th -1pt 

Lay bets: Mr Trevor +1pt, One Last Hug +1pt 

Total 0pts

NEWCASTLE 6.30 Div II 

A 13 runner race where just over half the field, 7, look to have virtually no chance on what they have shown so far and all of them are forecast to be double figure prices but warning 4 of them are 3yo’s, Arnold 6/1 could struggle to stay this trip if there's a fast early pace, Absolute Dream 5/1 has been known to lead but needs to improve time wise, Dylans Lad is my 4th top rated just 2lbs below Lucky Beggar in 3rd top spot, the top weight Kodi Gold hasn't made the frame in its 5 AW races but its best time on turf would make it my 2nd top rated, my money will be riding on ROCKLEY POINT 25/1 (EW) who lately has been held up in its races but is much better when its taken to the front from the off and the apprentice jockey who led on it earlier this year when finishing 2nd is back on board today and I am hoping that means they will attempt to lead all the way in this race and at such a big price I have to go with a small each way punt.

Rockley Point 25/1 Unp -2pts 

Total -2pts 

Total on the day -8pts

4:55 Pontefract Racing Tips (4th August)

PONTEFRACT 4.55 

A 7 runner race with one known front runner in Stay Smart and could go well with an easy lead, apart from Runninwild the rest have bits of form that are closely rated on my figures and I cannot say much about any of them, I will be backing CANFORD BAY 5/1 who can be held up for a late run or track the leaders and then stay on the stronger at the finish but it has poor trainer/jockey stats which worries me so any stakes will be kept on the low side.

Canford Bay 3rd -1pt  

Total -1pt 

YARMOUTH 5.15 

This is a class 6 race and its very hard to analyse to much of a conclusion, I'm not sure I could put up any lays with any confidence so I think the way to go in this race is with dutching 3 horses, CAZEVA PRINCESS 13/2 is one of the 2 known front running types in the race and comes out 2nd top rated using just 2021 times over this distance but the jockeys 0-3 record isn't great, KNOCKABOUT QUEEN 7/2 is the one that comes out top rated on just 2021 times but the jockeys 0-12 record for the stable doesn't fill me with confidence, top rated using a 2020 time is LINCOLN RED 5/1 but this one has poor trainer 0-10 record with their older horses and the jockey is 1-28 so my stakes will be kept low.

Knockabout Queen 7/1 5th -1pt 

Lincoln Red 11/1 6th -1pt 

Cazeva Princess 12/1 7th -1pt 

Total -3pts 

PONTEFRACT 5.30 

In this race I will look to lay Dream Together who prefers good to firm going but I doubt that will happen here and even if it does it would still need to improve time wise to win this race, the bottom weight Mr Orange comes out 3rd best on my figures but has been in poor form recently, OBEE JO 8/1 is my top rated using just 2021 times and has good trainer/jockey stats and with the jockeys 5lb claim it moves to top spot, my original top rated was/is *HIGHLY SPRUNG 4/1 who will try to lead all the way and it might get to the front on its own looking at the make-up of this race and with an easy lead it could prove very hard to catch and I will back them both to cover the angles. 

*NR

Obee Jo 8/1 3rd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

YARMOUTH 8.15 

An 8 runner race where 5 of them have been known to lead before so the question is, will they go off too fast and fade nearing the finish? I hope not, but if all 5 of the front runners do fade then Clashaniska 5/1 could be the one to prosper but I hope not and I will back two horses one that's top rated on 2021 times, SHESADABBER 6/1, and HAVEONEYERSELF 10/3 who is top rated using a time recorded over this course and distance in 2020 and this one has a decent jockey record on this stables older horses. 

2:25 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (23rd August)

WOLVERHAMPTON 2.25 

In this race I have marked half of the 10 runners with a negative against their name and I dont expect any of them, Capla Spirit-maybe the wrong surface, Bernies Boy-may need further, Port Noir-maybe better over a longer trip, Broughton Excels-also might not like this surface plus hasnt shown much recently and Carla Koala-a 11 runner maiden with poor form, to win this race but then I can only narrow it down to one main bet and 2 covering bets, DARK SIDE DREAM 13/2 could be the one to set the pace but its best time from 2019 only makes it my 2nd top rated and its c/d run this year when finishing 2nd was a slow run affair but if allowed an easy lead could lead all the way, KNOCKABOUT QUEEN 10/1 is top rated using 2019 times and one that will be staying on at the finish but just incase these 2 are not at their best yet this year I will also back the one with the highest speed figure from just 2020 times and that is the 3yo WADE'S MAGIC 9/4 who usually races midfield and then stays on strongly at the finish but i have to admit the price is way way shorter than I would have expected but i dont really have any option in this race other than to dutch all 3 selections.

Wade's Dream 9/4 2nd (-1pt)
Dark Side Dream 15/2 3rd (-1pt) 
Knockabout Queen 10/1 8th (-1pt)

Total on the day -3pts