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Monday, 7 February 2022

5:00 Southwell Racing Tips (8th February)

SOUTHWELL 5.00 

TELL’EM NOWT 11/2 has been in cracking form but all of those runs have been over a longer distance and I cannot see why they have dropped in down in trip to run here and I think it might get outpaced and then stay on but maybe too late for the win so maybe worth a lay at the price. 

MAPLE JACK 9/1 has only relatively slow times over this course and distance recently and hasn't run over this distance at either Newcastle or Wolverhampton I would look to lay it but I expect it will be one of the outsiders in this race. 

NUBOUGH 7/1 is actually my top rated using Tapeta speed figures from the two other courses, it hasn't run here since the surface was changed and the stable isn't in good form as its 37 days since they last had a winner but could make the frame so maybe an each way wager. 

MOONRAKER 40/1 comes out as my fourth top rated on just recent course and distance runs has only slow times at the other two Tapeta courses so I would like to lay it but I don't think it will be of any value to lay.

SCALE FORCE 13/2 comes out as my second top rated horse using both recent course and distance speed figures and the ratings from the other two Tapeta courses, the jockey booking looks mediocre but still it may make the frame. 

GOWANLAD 20/1 hasn't any form at this course on the new Tapeta surface and its best rating from Newcastle last year wouldn't put it in my top four ratings so may struggle in this race but I expect it will be one of the outsiders in the race. 

JEAN'S MAITE 3/1 a front running type but luckily over this straight five furlong course its stall 10 draw isn't going to hamper its chances, its only got slow times from Wolverhampton and Newcastle but does come out top rated on recent course and distance races. 

RED WALLS 6/1 is the third and final known front running type but its course and distance speed figure was quite slow and also has slow times at both of the other two courses that use this Tapeta surface and could be one to lay. 

SNOW BERRY 12/1 usually likes to track the leaders but its form on an artificial surface is quite poor and its best times on turf are also on the low side so I think it will struggle in this race but i think the price will reflect its chances of winning. 

GOSSIP 25/1 hasn't been in the best of form recently and its best course and distance time is relatively slow and sits outside my top four rated horses and I think it will be one of the rank outsiders in this race. 

QAARAAT 18/1 hasn't been in the best of form lately but did record a decent time over this course and distance but most of its best form comes in lower class races and seems to have gone downhill the last season or so but could possibly make the frame. 

SUMMARY: With three known front running types this race should be run at a true pace from the off, I will look to lay Tell’em Nowt 11/2 and Red Walls 6/1 for reasons given in the write-up above, Qaaraat 18/1 is an enigma and can run a decent race whenever in the right mood but maybe not enough to win this race but could make the frame, Nubough 7/1 is another that could make the frame but my money will be riding on JEAN'S MAITE 3/1 who is a front running type and if getting to the front in this race it could prove very hard to catch and the jockey does have a decent 18% win ratio riding for today's stable, I was hoping for a bit bigger price, nine to two or five to one, but a winners a winner and it does have a good chance of leading all the way in this race.

Jean's Maite 3/1 1st +3pts

Lay bets Tell'em Nowt +1pt, Maple Jack +1pt

Total on the day +5pts

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