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Wednesday, 9 February 2022

6:00 Newcastle Racing Tips (10th February)

NEWCASTLE 6.00 

A field of ten take part here with three of them being known as front running types so it should be a true run race, Nellie French 14/1 and Qaaraat 8/1 have good speed figures if I use their best ratings from 2020 but both have been well below that level since that year and I think the betting will reflect that, Eeh Bah Gum 9/2 hasn't any recent course and distance form to its name but I would have to go back to 2019 to find this ones best rating so may be worth taking on with a lay bet, Joshua R has only slow times from its two course and distance runs but the surface has been running slow of late so cannot be discarded, I will be backing BERNARD SPEIRPOINT 4/1 who is a possible pacesetter and is top rated using recent Southwell ratings and this will be its debut on this course and maybe the straight course will suit it better, my other bet will be on STROXX 7/1 who is still a maiden after 15 races but has a good rating over this course and distance from last year and could be the one to prosper if the leaders fade nearing the finish, I was hoping for an each way price with this horse and it might drift enough to be worth doing each way. 

Bernard Speirpoint 4/1 4th -1pt 
Stroxx 13/2 5th -1pt 

Lay bet Eeh Bah Gum +1pt 

Total -1pt

NEWCASTLE 6.30 

Only 6 runners for this class 3 race which is disappointing as is the fact that there's no known front runners in the race and to be honest I think more than half the field are more than capable of winning this race, Asadjumeirah has only run over this c/d when the going has been slow so I'm not really sure what it can achieve if the going is standard but I couldn't say it cant win this race, I did have to go back to 2020 to find Rathbone’s best rating but I expect it will be an outsider in this race but would be worth laying if its a single figure price,if sticking to the proven then I think the winner will come from any of Aberama Gold, top on Southwell ratings, Astro Jakk, top using a 2020 speed figure and Ballyare who is top rated on c/d rating from 2021/22, so maybe this race is best left alone. 

NEWCASTLE 7.00 

There is just one known front runner in this race but it is my top rated so I will be hoping that STORM OVER 11/1 (EW) can lead from start to finish and get back to winning ways as its my top rated using a c/d speed figure recorded in 2021, admittedly it hasn't been in the best of form lately but it is the best horse in this race taking on inferior beasts, it does well at this course and maybe the switch back to this course, its last run here was February last year, will rejuvenate it and this is its best chance to lead for some time now but the trainer hasn't had a winner from 24 runners in the last 91 days which tempers my stakes while I hope all 8 runners take part so I can back it each way, Tarnholm 16/1 may be better when racing over a longer distance so maybe worth laying, but not at the price, as will Rabeh 15/2 but this one probably needs to drop down in distance, on my ratings Deevious Beau 4/1, Oriental Lilly 10/3 and Due A Win 11/2 will be battling for the minor places.

Storm Over 14/1 6th -2pts 

Total -2pt 

Total on the day -3pts

Lay bets must be single-figure odds. 

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