3:30 Southwell Racing Tips (8th January)

SOUTHWELL 3.30 

TRUSTY RUSTY 5/2 is a course and distance winner but is only my 3rd best and is also below the rating required to win this using its best Wolverhampton rating so not for me here, maybe a lay at the price. 

ANGLE LAND 4/1 is one of 3 known front running types and is my top rated using Tapeta ratings from elsewhere but its best course and distance rating is relatively low so not sure what to expect from it, one I couldn't back or lay. 

JEAN'S MAITE another possible pacesetter and is my top rated on course and distance ratings but only just and 2nd top on ratings from elsewhere on Tapeta. 

AMOR DE MI VIDA 16/1 hasn't a course and distance rating and would need to improve a good few spots time wise on its best Wolverhampton rating. 

PEPPER STREAK 6/1 the 3rd front running type and my 2nd top rated on course and distance ratings but only 5th best on Tapeta ratings from elsewhere and has poor trainer/jockey stats. 

MISS BELLADONNA 8/1 would need to improve time wise on its Southwell rating and its 5 distance runs at Wolverhampton were all quite poor so not for me here. 

SNOW BERRY 25/1 has had 1 run at all 3 Tapeta courses and time wise it would need to improve quite a few spots and I will look to lay it if a single figure price. 

CONCLUSION: With 3 known front running types in this 5 furlong dash it should be a fast run race and my top 3 rated horses are the 3 front running types and the rest may struggle to get in contention here. Pepper Streak is my 3rd top rated but has poor trainer, 1-25, and jockey 0-16, stats, which puts me off. Angle Land the trainer has a 6% win ratio with its older horses and the jockey is 0-3 when riding for the stable which leaves me with JEAN'S MAITE 9/2 who is my top rated on course and distance ratings and the trainer has a 17% win ratio at this course while the jockeys strike rate when riding for the stable is 19% which makes me think this is the more likely winner of this race.

Jean's Maite 9/2 4th -1pt

Lay bet Trusty Rusty +1pt

Total on the day 0pts

1:10 Southwell Racing Tips (20th December)

SOUTHWELL 1.10 

A 5 furlong class 5 dash with 10 runners and half, 5, of them have been known to lead before and my top 3 ratings are all front running types. I will look to lay Yimou 15/2 as its a better horse over a longer distance, Twilight Madness stall 5, is going for the hattrick here and is my 3rd top rated horse using just course and distance ratings, Never Dark in stall 2 comes out in 2nd top spot but if JEAN'S MAITE 5/1 can reproduce its last rating when leading all the way last time out then it would follow up here and has been found a good opportunity to do just that. 

Jean's Maite 4/1 4th -1pt 

Total -1pt

SOUTHWELL 4.30 Div I

As to be expected not a great class 6 sprint but there is a couple of front runners which always helps, Breach 7/1 who is a hold up type of horse is out in stall 11 so it will need a degree of luck when coming to challenge and if its a single figure price, as forecast on the tissue prices, then I would look to lay it. I'm hoping that PORTELET BAY 20/1 who is my top rated on Tapeta ratings from elsewhere can lead here and if doing so it ought to be hard to catch, its form has as usual been erratic but its a horse that can win without any prior indication which also applies to THE COLA KID 25/1 and this one is my top rated on course and distance ratings and at the prices I have to go with 2 each way bets. 

The Cola Kid 25/1 6th -1pt 

Portelet Bay 40/1 8th -1pt 

Total -2pts

NEWCASTLE 4.45

A poor turnout of just 7 runners for this class 4 sprint, Westmorlan 2/1 seems better over shorter distances and Barney's Boy 9/1 seems better on the Polytrack surface so will look to lay both of them, Spartan Fighter 25/1 could set the pace but has been in poor form lately but if allowed an easy lead it could go well but i think its in the race to help the chances of its stablemate BELLAGIO MAN 4/1 who seems to like a fast pace to aim at but i will be backing both stablemates but the former mainly as a covering bet and a small profit if it can hang on for the win. 

Bellagio Man 41 2nd -1pt 

Lay bets Westorian 7/2 -3.5pts, Barney's Boy +1pt

Total -3.5pts

SOUTHWELL 5.00 Div II

In this 2nd division we once again have 2 known front running types, as for any lays I an looking at both Solar Prophet 4/1 and Giselles Izzy 7/2 who both race as though a longer distance would suit them better so they should be staying on at the finish but hopefully too late to win this race. Tathmeen is my 2nd top rated on Tapeta ratings from elsewhere while Hilary's Boy is my 2nd top rated on just course and distance ratings so either could run well. Top rated on course and distance times is DELLA MARE 7/2 who usually likes to track the leaders and has the prime stall 1 draw so could stay on strong nearing the finish while the front running LANCASHIRE LIFE 22/1 is my top rated from other Tapeta ratings, if getting to the front it could lead all the way and I will back the 2 horses that come top in my 2 lists the former with a win bet and an each way bet on the double figure priced horde. 

Della Mare 6/1 -1pt 

Lancashire Life 80/1 -1pt 

Lay bets Gislles Izzy -8pts, Solar Prophet +1pt

Total -9pts

NEWCASTLE 5.45 

Another 7 runner race but this time there is a couple of front runners amongst them and of the pair Ornate could do best as its my 3rd top rated but this 9yo does seem to be on the decline but I expect it will be an outsider in this race. I will look to lay Motawaazy 11/2 who is 0-5 on an artificial surface and races as though further would suit it better, Indian Sounds will be trying to stay on at the finish but maybe too late for the win, BENEFICIARY 9/4 is my top rated on Southwell ratings and also on ratings from either here or Wolverhampton and can either be held up for a late run or track the leaders and in a small field like this I would hope it races close to the front to prevent anything getting first run on it and then it might not be able to catch it but the jockey has a decent strike rate for the stable so lets hope he adds to it here.

Beneficiary 9/4 5th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day - 16.5pts

5:00 Southwell Racing Tips (8th February)

SOUTHWELL 5.00 

TELL’EM NOWT 11/2 has been in cracking form but all of those runs have been over a longer distance and I cannot see why they have dropped in down in trip to run here and I think it might get outpaced and then stay on but maybe too late for the win so maybe worth a lay at the price. 

MAPLE JACK 9/1 has only relatively slow times over this course and distance recently and hasn't run over this distance at either Newcastle or Wolverhampton I would look to lay it but I expect it will be one of the outsiders in this race. 

NUBOUGH 7/1 is actually my top rated using Tapeta speed figures from the two other courses, it hasn't run here since the surface was changed and the stable isn't in good form as its 37 days since they last had a winner but could make the frame so maybe an each way wager. 

MOONRAKER 40/1 comes out as my fourth top rated on just recent course and distance runs has only slow times at the other two Tapeta courses so I would like to lay it but I don't think it will be of any value to lay.

SCALE FORCE 13/2 comes out as my second top rated horse using both recent course and distance speed figures and the ratings from the other two Tapeta courses, the jockey booking looks mediocre but still it may make the frame. 

GOWANLAD 20/1 hasn't any form at this course on the new Tapeta surface and its best rating from Newcastle last year wouldn't put it in my top four ratings so may struggle in this race but I expect it will be one of the outsiders in the race. 

JEAN'S MAITE 3/1 a front running type but luckily over this straight five furlong course its stall 10 draw isn't going to hamper its chances, its only got slow times from Wolverhampton and Newcastle but does come out top rated on recent course and distance races. 

RED WALLS 6/1 is the third and final known front running type but its course and distance speed figure was quite slow and also has slow times at both of the other two courses that use this Tapeta surface and could be one to lay. 

SNOW BERRY 12/1 usually likes to track the leaders but its form on an artificial surface is quite poor and its best times on turf are also on the low side so I think it will struggle in this race but i think the price will reflect its chances of winning. 

GOSSIP 25/1 hasn't been in the best of form recently and its best course and distance time is relatively slow and sits outside my top four rated horses and I think it will be one of the rank outsiders in this race. 

QAARAAT 18/1 hasn't been in the best of form lately but did record a decent time over this course and distance but most of its best form comes in lower class races and seems to have gone downhill the last season or so but could possibly make the frame. 

SUMMARY: With three known front running types this race should be run at a true pace from the off, I will look to lay Tell’em Nowt 11/2 and Red Walls 6/1 for reasons given in the write-up above, Qaaraat 18/1 is an enigma and can run a decent race whenever in the right mood but maybe not enough to win this race but could make the frame, Nubough 7/1 is another that could make the frame but my money will be riding on JEAN'S MAITE 3/1 who is a front running type and if getting to the front in this race it could prove very hard to catch and the jockey does have a decent 18% win ratio riding for today's stable, I was hoping for a bit bigger price, nine to two or five to one, but a winners a winner and it does have a good chance of leading all the way in this race.

Jean's Maite 3/1 1st +3pts

Lay bets Tell'em Nowt +1pt, Maple Jack +1pt

Total on the day +5pts