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Tuesday 15 February 2022

7:00 Kempton Racing Tips (16th February)


I was going to write something about each horse but there's nothing much to say about lots of the runners in this low grade stakes race, there's only 5lbs between them on official handicap ratings so in theory Ocean Eyes 7/1 or Della Ware 2/1 should win this race the former only comes out 7th best on my figures so might be worth laying as might the latter who is still a maiden after 19 races, I will also look to lay Jack Ryan 6/1 who may need further to show its best form while Final Verse 10/1 looks to prefer the Tapeta surface but as usual they are only lays if they are a single figure price at the off, Farewell Kiss 20/1 hasn't been in form lately but does come out in 3rd top spot using a Chelmsford 2020 speed figure but maybe that's too long ago to be of importance for this race, Seeking Perfection is one of two known front running types in this race and being my 2nd top rated using a speed figure in 2021 from Newcastle but in its only 2 runs on Polytrack, both over this course and distance, it produced very little of note so maybe this isn't its favoured surface and is now a NON-RUNNER so now Indian Affair 7/1 could set the pace to the race but the times of its last 2 runs when making the frame were slow run affairs and I'm doubtful this 12yo can improve on its best recent efforts to win this race but could do enough from the front to make the frame once again, so I am left once again with INDEPENDENCE DAY 7/2 who is well weighted on its best form and has finished 3rd on its last 2 starts and has been found an opportunity to get back to winning ways in this race but the trainer is 1-55 at this course in the last five years is off-putting, it has won once before and I think it will win again so lets hope its in this race. 

Independence Day 11/1 1st +11pts 

Lay bets Della Ware +1pt, Jack Ryan +1pt, Final Verse +1pt

Total +14pts 


Only 4 runners for this class 2 race and 3 of them have been known to lead before so it should be a fast run race but its also a strange race, Papa Stour has a fast time from Chelmsford in 2021 which would put it in 2nd top spot while its course and distance time is only good enough for 3rd best but the jockey has a 21% win ratio on the stables older horses, Mohareb is 3rd top using a Lingfield time recorded in 2020 but this one only has average trainer/jockey stats and hasn't ran here before, May Sonic comes out bottom on my figures over this course and distance but has a speed figure from Chelmsford in 2021 which makes it my top rated but which figures do I use for this race, Royal Pleasure looks like being the favourite but I have a feeling it might need further to show its best as its time over this distance is only good enough for 3rd top spot, so everything is a bit topsy turvy in this race where I think the best way to make a profit might be to lay the favourite, that's if Royal Pleasure is the favourite, and hope it doesn't pick up the front runners in time to win this race. Royal Pleasure is now a non runner so i will be leaving this race alone as the 3 runners all like to lead and it could be a battle to gain control and the race might end up as a messy affair.

Total on the day 14pts

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