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Wednesday 16 February 2022

5:00 Chelmsford Racing Tips (17th February)


A class 6 apprentice jockeys race with 4 runners that have been known to lead before so it should be a true run race, I will look to lay Porfin 8/1 and *Portelet Bay 17/2 who usually stay on at the business end of their races but time wise I am not sure they can pick up the leaders, there is a few others that could be on my lay list but I think they will all be double figure prices so hence not of value to lay, its hard with these apprentice jockey races as usually there's nothing or very little stats to use to try and see whether it looks as though there connections will be trying or not, my stakes in these races are always kept lower than usual but I will be backing two horses in this race, firstly there's AMASOVA 5/1 who is my top rated using 2021/22 course and distance speed figures and is second top rated on my overall figures just behind AUTUMN TRAIL 16/1 (EW) and at the price this has to be an each way wager, they are both horses that like to race to the fore in their races and as long as they don't go heel for leather from the off and fade badly they have the ratings to hold the rest at bay to get back to winning ways. 


Amasova 11/2 3rd -1pt 
Autumn Trail 16/1 7th -2pts 

Lay bet Porfin +1pt 

Total -2pts


The top three in the handicap are the natural front running types in this race and I Am A Dreamer 14/1 is rated slightly higher plus it has the stall one draw so it could go best of the trio and could even hold on to make the frame and might be worth an each way interest at the price and as I think it might even be better when racing over further its stamina shouldn't run out even if they do go off a shade too fast in the early stages of the race, Thaki 9/1 is forecast to be the second favourite in this race but I would be more interested in laying it as I think it needs further to show its best form but is double what the early tissue prices forecast .As for the winner I am looking at the John Butler stable as he has two horses entered in this race, INAAM 6/1 who finished second on its last run and MARTINEO 4/1 won last time out and either of them could win this race, they are both being ridden by apprentices but Martineo’s jockey is 0-4 for the stable while the jockey on Inaam has a poorish 6% win ratio for the stable which worries me a bit so my stakes wont be at full strength but whichever one is trying, it could be both, will need a bit of luck in running but this race being a class 5 affair wont take that much winning and I will be backing both of them because if I go with my gut and in some ways my stats and relied on just one of them I am sure to get it wrong so better something than nothing.

Martineo 12/1 9th -1pt 
Inaam 20/1 Unp -1pt  

Lay bet Thaki +1pt

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -3pts

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