7:00 Kempton Racing Tips (16th February)

KEMPTON 7.00 

I was going to write something about each horse but there's nothing much to say about lots of the runners in this low grade stakes race, there's only 5lbs between them on official handicap ratings so in theory Ocean Eyes 7/1 or Della Ware 2/1 should win this race the former only comes out 7th best on my figures so might be worth laying as might the latter who is still a maiden after 19 races, I will also look to lay Jack Ryan 6/1 who may need further to show its best form while Final Verse 10/1 looks to prefer the Tapeta surface but as usual they are only lays if they are a single figure price at the off, Farewell Kiss 20/1 hasn't been in form lately but does come out in 3rd top spot using a Chelmsford 2020 speed figure but maybe that's too long ago to be of importance for this race, Seeking Perfection is one of two known front running types in this race and being my 2nd top rated using a speed figure in 2021 from Newcastle but in its only 2 runs on Polytrack, both over this course and distance, it produced very little of note so maybe this isn't its favoured surface and is now a NON-RUNNER so now Indian Affair 7/1 could set the pace to the race but the times of its last 2 runs when making the frame were slow run affairs and I'm doubtful this 12yo can improve on its best recent efforts to win this race but could do enough from the front to make the frame once again, so I am left once again with INDEPENDENCE DAY 7/2 who is well weighted on its best form and has finished 3rd on its last 2 starts and has been found an opportunity to get back to winning ways in this race but the trainer is 1-55 at this course in the last five years is off-putting, it has won once before and I think it will win again so lets hope its in this race. 

Independence Day 11/1 1st +11pts 

Lay bets Della Ware +1pt, Jack Ryan +1pt, Final Verse +1pt

Total +14pts 

KEMPTON 7.30 

Only 4 runners for this class 2 race and 3 of them have been known to lead before so it should be a fast run race but its also a strange race, Papa Stour has a fast time from Chelmsford in 2021 which would put it in 2nd top spot while its course and distance time is only good enough for 3rd best but the jockey has a 21% win ratio on the stables older horses, Mohareb is 3rd top using a Lingfield time recorded in 2020 but this one only has average trainer/jockey stats and hasn't ran here before, May Sonic comes out bottom on my figures over this course and distance but has a speed figure from Chelmsford in 2021 which makes it my top rated but which figures do I use for this race, Royal Pleasure looks like being the favourite but I have a feeling it might need further to show its best as its time over this distance is only good enough for 3rd top spot, so everything is a bit topsy turvy in this race where I think the best way to make a profit might be to lay the favourite, that's if Royal Pleasure is the favourite, and hope it doesn't pick up the front runners in time to win this race. Royal Pleasure is now a non runner so i will be leaving this race alone as the 3 runners all like to lead and it could be a battle to gain control and the race might end up as a messy affair.

Total on the day 14pts

12:30 Southwell Racing Tips (11th February)

SOUTHWELL 12.30 

There's 3 known front running types in this 9 runner race and it just might be won from the front, I will look to lay Toptime 8/1 who looks a better prospect when racing over further as its poor speed figure at this course shows, another one to lay is Brandy Station who hasn't shown anything worthwhile time wise for quite a while now including when finishing 3rd over this c/d last time out, Miss Seafire 9/1 and Brazen Arrow 4/1 could go well but the former is still a maiden after 8 runs and the latter's best rating comes from back in 2020, COOL SPIRIT 5/2 is my top rated on recent c/d speed figures and could try to lead all the way in this race and could do so but its jockey stats are relatively poor at 7% win ratio so maybe not one to back on its own, BLUELLA 22/1 at the bottom of the handicap is well weighted on its best form both at this course on recent runs and its best from Wolverhampton in 2021 so I will be backing it each way at the price but I will have to back them both to cover the angles. 

Bluella 22/1 3rd +3.4pts 

Cool Spirit 7/1 9th -1pt 

Lay bets Toptime +1pt 

Total +4.4pts

SOUTHWELL 1.00 

Lets start with something to lay in this 12 runner low class stakes race where they all carry the same weight, Louis Treize 5/1 will be trying to stay on at the finish but maybe a bit too late to win this race and isn't in my top 4 ratings but could make the frame if others falter and Captain Ryan 7/1 might not be able to lead and may then struggle so another for the lay list and finally Rhubarb 6/1 who usually stays on at the finish but again maybe too late to get up for the win, as for the winner I will be backing 2 horses, firstly BLACKCURRENT 5/2 who is a known front runner and could prove hard to catch for most of the field as it is my joint top rated on recent times at both Wolverhampton and Newcastle in 2021/22 and has good trainer/jockey stats it is also top rated on recent c/d times, I do have *LORNA COLE 11/2 with a higher rating from 2020 at Wolverhampton and has good trainer stats and usually stays on strongly at the finish over this distance so the 2 bets to cover the angles. 

Blackcurrent 5/2 5th -1pt 

Lay bet Louis Treize -3.5pts

Total -4.5pts

SOUTHWELL 4.25 

This is a poor poor race even for another low class stakes race, Dirchill could be the one to set the pace but has only poor form in its recent exertions and I think it will be an outsider, I'm not sure I could lay anything with any certainty as this race will not take much winning although I doubt Knockabout Queen 15/2 who is a hold up type can reach the front in time to win this race, INDEPENDENCE DAY 8/1 (EW) has a rating from Newcastle last year that would make it 8lb’s clear on my ratings and it did run ok last time out when finishing 3rd and has been found a good opportunity to get back to winning ways but my stakes wont be at full tilt because consistency isn't a keyword at this level and its trainer/jockey stats are nothing to write home about and stall 11 isn't ideal but if in the right mood could win this race cosily so I will be backing it and an each way price would be a bonus.

Independence Day 14/1 3rd +1.8pts 

Total +1.8pts

Total on the day +1.7pts

2:45 Lingfield Racing Tips (4th February)

LINGFIELD 2.45 

This is one of those lowly stakes races and to make things worse there isn't any known front running types in the race, I think that Cool Spirit 9/2 is better over a shorter distance and might be worth laying if the price is right but that will be hoping the early pace is fast enough to ensure it doesn't last home, I could also lay *Million Reasons 11/4 who is forecast to be the favourite here won last time out in a slow run race so may have been flattered and Ocean Eyes 7/2 who was 2nd that day is weighted to reverse the form in this race, Perfect Symphony 10/1 is another that looks better over a shorter distance and might be worth taking on with a lay bet, as for winning this race I will be backing 2 horses, KNOCKABOUT QUEEN 9/2 who is my top rated on just recent, 2021/22 c/d speed figures and is usually held up for a late run so will be hoping the early pace is strong enough for the leaders to be tiring as this one starts to run on, the same applies to my other bet INDEPENDENCE DAY 4/1 as this one is also a hold up type and this ones best time comes from 2020 but did record a time last year at Newcastle to show it has still got enough to win this race if on song. 

*NR

Independence Day 8/1 3rd -1pt

Knockabout Queen 9/2 6th -1pt

Lay bets Cool Spirit  -2.25pts

Total -4.25pts

NEWCASTLE 4.45 

Only 6 runners with only Blazing Hot 3/1 been known to lead before although this one is versatile with its racing tactics and doesn't have to lead but could attempt to do so here and could be dangerous if allowed a soft lead, I will look to lay Ubaahha 12/1 if its a single figure price at the off, Ginato 15/2 has a good speed figure but is still a maiden on the AW surfaces after 11 attempts plus its been over 80 days since the stable last had a winner which is off-putting and the jockey is 0-7 for the stable, my money will be riding on DEEVIOUS BEAU 5/2 who has the best Southwell rating and 2nd top on this surface at Wolverhampton and it has good jockey stats making me think connections are expecting a big run here but is a bit shorter in price than I was expecting but hey ho a winners a winner. 

Deevious Beau 9/2 3rd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

NEWCASTLE 5.45 

The early pace in this race could be set by Mokaman and/or Fine Wine 8/1 although I think the latter may prefer the Polytrack surface and is one I will look to lay if its a single figure price at the off, others I will be looking to lay for various reasons are Sugar Baby 3/1, Lazyitus 8/1 and One Hart 6/1, if TATHMEEN 9/1 reproduces its best time from last year it would be winning this race with a bit in hand and it recorded an even better rating from 2020 so will be carrying some of my money but I will also be backing THE THIN BLUE LINE 7/2 who recorded a good rating from Southwell, this is its debut over this c/d but if repeating its best Southwell speed figure it would have a very good chance, (I have sort of contradicted myself saying both horses could win this race it is down to the fact that with Southwell having the new Tapeta surface installed 2 months ago it is still hard to compare those ratings against the Newcastle and Wolverhampton ratings).

Tathmeen 9/1 3rd -1pt 

The Thin Blue Line 7/2 7th -1pt 

Lay bet Sugar baby +1pt 

Total -1pt

Total on the day -6.25pts

1:29 Chelmsford Racing Tips (9th January)

CHELMSFORD 1.29 

Only 6 runners but there is 2, Merhoob and Spirit Of May, known front runners in the field Merhood has the higher speed figure for 2020 but Spirit Of May has the higher rating overall and that figure is good enough for 2nd top spot so could be dangerous if allowed an easy lead but my money will be riding on my top rated EXCELLENT GEORGE 9/2 who can be held up or track the leaders and in this small filed should be able to get a good position from which to attack nearing the finish. 

Excellent George 5/1 3rd (-1pt)

Total: -1pt

CHELMSFORD 2.04 

Again only 6 runners and it is fairly close between my top 4 rated beasts, the pace could be set by Bernie's Boy but wont be allowed to dictate in this field and would need to improve time wise to win if others ran to their best, Storm Melody and Album are my joint 3rd top rated and the latter won last time out so is in good form, Daysaq sits in 2nd top spot but is a hold up type so this race might not be run to suit its style and the jockeys 0-11 record for the stable is off-putting, so i will be backing SIR HECTOR 4/1 who is my top rated and this course will suit it better than last time at Wolverhampton when 3rd behind Album, but there is only 3lbs between my top four so my stake will be kept on the low side. 

Sir Hector 4/1 3rd (-1pt)

Total -1pt

LINGFIELD 3.25 

This isn't a race to be betting too heavily in, I will look to lay (Zulu Zander 13/2) as long as it stays at a single figure price, Flowers Of Venus could be the pacesetter but maybe not good enough to hold on for the win and I think this run might be for fitness after being off for awhile, Kindly 10/1 has a time from 2016 that would make it my 3rd top rated and hasn't had many recent c/d runs so it could possible make the frame if repeating its best and it is an each way price, COME ON GIRL 4/1 won last time out and is my top rated on just recent (2020+2021) c/d times and the horse is two wins from 2 runs over this c/d but is only 3rd best overall, MAMILLIUS 9/2 comes out 2nd best on overall figures and that is using a 2019 c/d time but had only one run over this c/d in 2020, top spot goes to INVINCIBLE LARNE 3/1 but this ones time came from Chelmsford and hasn't run over this c/d before, i will look to dutch the three of them, they are the first 3 in the betting but hey ho you can still make a profit by dutching. 

Mamillius 9/2 1st (+4.5pts)  + f/c 14.80 + t/c 57.60 (Betfair SP 4.2)

Invincible Larne 3/1 2nd (-1pt)

Come On Girl 4/1 3rd (-1pt)

Lay bets: Zulu Zander +1pt

Total: +3.5pts 

CHELMSFORD 4.45 

I was going to leave this race alone as there is quite a few lightly raced sorts, the trainer Chelsea Banham has three entries in the race, At Your Service won last time out at Wolverhampton in a decent time but its c/d times have been 10lb below that mark, Kits Allanah is only a 4yo but hasn't shown much so far but the 3rd runner INDEPENDENCE DAY 8/1 who is usually held up for a late run has a time from 2020 that makes it my top rated and if repeating that time it would win a shade cosily, so I'm hoping the betting goes in favour of the stables other runner and I get a decent price to hopefully have an each way wager.

Independence Day 8/1 5th (-2pts)

Total: -2pts

Total on the day: -0.5pts

4:15 Southwell Racing Tips (8th December)

SOUTHWELL 4.15 

Only 9 runners but a very hard race to analyse, there are a couple of known front runners so that's not the problem, I will look to lay (Scale Force + Pull Harder Con) if a single figure price, the early pace maybe forced by Samovar and/or Turanga Leela but the latter hasn't any form on this course but I am hoping from stall 2 that the former can get to the front and control of the rail and then could prove hard to catch for most of the field, Album has the stall 1 draw and likes to track the leaders so is ideally drawn it has a good time from Chelmsford but would need to improve a couple of pounds for the switch to this surface to win the race, I will be putting my trust and money on MOVEONUP 16/1 who is usually held up for a late run and this race looks likely to be run to suit its racing style and the apprentice jockey booking looks a positive move and their 7lb allowance takes it to the top of my ratings and at the price available it has to be given as an each way punt. 

Moveonup 15/1 Unp (-2pts)

Lay bets: Scale Force +1pt, Pull Harder Coin +1pt

Total: 0pt

SOUTHWELL  5.45

A poor turnout of 6 runners for this claimer, the bottom pair look to be out of their depth and will be the 2 outsiders, Thrave has the potential to go onto better things and could try to set the pace but i still prefer the proven, Requinted Dawn is my 3rd top rated and usually tracks the leaders, YOUNG JOHN 5/4 is my 2nd top rated on just 2020 c/d times but its best time from 2019 moves it to top spot and this front runner from stall 2 could set the pace and control the rails but just in case it cannot repeat its best from last year i will also back PUCHITA 7/2 who is my top rated on just 2020 times. 

Young John 5/4 2nd (-1pt)

Puchita 4/1 4th (-1pt)

Total: -2pts

SOUTHWELL  7.15 

A full complement of 14 for this race for amateur jockeys which always means my stakes wont be at full strength, Requited Dawn could set the pace, usually stall 12 wouldn't be great but should be ok in the make-up of this race although with amateur jockeys normal racing tactics for each horse could go out the window it could prove troublesome, I will go with dutching 3 horses in the race, INDEPENDENCE DAY 16/1 (EW) has a fast time from Chelmsford which would make it my top rated but it hasn't raced on this surface before but luckily the price allows for a bit of insurance as it can be done as an each way wager, LETMESTOPYOUTHERE 10/1 (EW) is my joint top rated on c/d times but that time was recorded in 2019 and hasn't had a recent c/d run but the jockey booking might be a positive as they have a 17% win ratio for the stable and the trainer has an 18% win rate at the course but it does drop to 14% with their older horses so it has to be an each way bet at the price, top rated on just 2020 c/d times is GORGEOUS GENERAL 11/2 and this ones trainer has an overall win ratio of 18% at this course it jumps up to 26% with their older horses.

Letmestopyouthere 12/1 (+2pts) 

Gorgeous General 10/1 4th (-1pt)

Independence Day 25/1 6th (-2pts) 

Total: -1pt

Total on the day: -3pts

4:50 Newcastle Racing Tips & Lay Bets (19th November)

NEWCASTLE 4.50 5f 

A full house of 14 runners with 3 known front runners in amongst them, I will look to lay Orvar, as long as its a single figure price, who hasn't been in form lately and not shown much time wise since 2018, all of these could run big races here, Watchable, El Hombre and Get Boosting, Venturous won last time out and being in form could run well again here and could make the frame, Big Les and Exalted Angel could be the 2 that set the early pace, I will be taking a bit of a punt on the 3yo BIRKENHEAD 17/2 (EW) who has only run here once before without showing much but its best time from Wolverhampton would put it in the mix while the apprentice jockeys 5lb claim moves it into top spot and it will hopefully be an decent each way price. 

Birkenhead 10/1 7th (-2pts)

Total: -2pts

CHELMSFORD 5.30 6f 

A ten runner affair and at class 2 is the highest rated sprint of the day, the 3yo Aberama Gold is forecast to be the favourite but I am not convinced this course will suit it so worth laying, there's 4 known front running types in the race and my top 2 ratings are in that group, Katheefa could go well if reproducing its best 2019 time, Lipsink could be a bit of a hidden danger, while Poets Dance may do best of those coming from off the pace, Spirit Of May has got stall 2 which could help its cause but I'm siding with NIGEL NOTT 5/1 who could be ok from stall 8 in the make-up of this race and if getting to the front ought to prove to be a hard nut to crack and I think the jockey booking looks a positive. 

Nigel Nott 5/1 2nd -1pt

Total: -1pt

CHELMSFORD 6.00 6f Div II

This class 6 race is a bit patchy time wise with only 6 of the 14 runners have a recorded speed figure, I'm looking to lay (Daddy's Diva + Krazy Paving) if in single figure prices anything bigger and the value would be lost, I've got joint 2nd top rated horses in Vincenzo Coccotti who is a hold up type and will be staying on at the finish, the other is Rockesbury (non runner) who is one of 2 known front running types in the race and if getting to the front could be hard to catch but i do have one horse rated 2lbs higher so if *INDEPENDENCE DAY 12/1 (EW)

gets a clear run it could pick up the leader and at the price has to be an each way wager. 

*NR

Lay bets: Daddy's Diva +1pt, Krazy Paving +1pt

Total: +2pts

CHELMSFORD 6.30 6f Div II

In this 2nd division there's 7 with recorded speed figures but very little is over this c/d and or recent, I've got joint 3rd top rated horses in Isabella Ruby and *AT YOUR SERVICE 13/2 and the latter is top rated on just 2020 times so has to be respected and will be carrying my money, Illustrious Spirit is 2nd top rated using a Lingfield time from earlier this year but hasn't been in good form lately, with no known pacesetter in the race my stakes wont be at full strength. 

*NR

CHELMSFORD 7.00 5f 

Only a class 5 but a hard race to analyse to a conclusion in fact I will be dutching 3 horses, INVINCIBLE LARNE 5/2 is the favourite and could try to lead but from stall 8 but with 3 others that might try the same tactic it might get taken wide on the bend, it is my top rated using a Kempton time but this will be its debut at this course but if getting a run and taking to the track it could win but there is two 3yo’s in the race that could cause it some trouble nearing the finish who are both rated exactly equal so I will be backing both REASSURE 4/1 and ZULU ZANDER 14/1 just in case the top weight doesn't handle the course or the draw.

Reassure 7/1 1st (+7pts Betfair SP 10.14)

Zulu Zander 40/1 4th (-1pt)

Invincible Larne 5/2 6th (-1pt)

Total: +5pts

Total on the day +4pts