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Friday, 18 February 2022

7:00 Newcastle Racing Tips (19th February)

NEWCASTLE 7.00 

KNOCKABOUT QUEEN comes out 5th top on its 2022 c/d speedfigure and 4th top using its best 2020 rating and could make the frame here. 

WON LOVE won last time out in a slow run affair where it was allowed to set a sedate early pace so the result may have flattered it but wont be allowed that luxury here and one I will take on with a lay bet. 

EDESSANN has only poor form on both of the artificial surfaces and I expect the price to reflect that with it being one of the outsiders in this race. 

FARHSICAL has had 2 run over this course and distance but it hasn't registered a rating in either race and will be another outsider. 

HIGHLAND REEL this one has poor form over this distance on the All-Weather surfaces and that's mainly because I think it needs a longer distance to show its best form so another outsider. 

JEMS BOND is just outside my top four using my speed figures, it usually tries to stay on nearing the finish and may be better when racing over a longer distance and maybe be worth laying if a single figure price at the off. 

PENOMBRE is still a maiden after having had 12 races, 6 of them being on an AW track and the trainer has had 27 runners in the last 51 days without having had a winner and one I will take on if of value to do so. 

QAARAAT this horse is a rule unto itself it could run well or could run badly is my 2nd top rated so would make the frame if doing its best.

ROCKLEY POINT hasn't shown any worthwhile form lately but its best figure from either 2021 or 2020 would be good enough to win this race and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch.

SLEIGHT will be trying to stay on nearing the finish and being my 3rd top rated it could run into a place so might be worth an each way interest. 

TARHELM hasn't shown much worthwhile form for quite awhile now, I expect it to be an outsider and would be a surprise if it got back to winning ways in this race. 

WICKLOW WARRIOR is only just outside my top four ratings in this race but is another that's not been in good form lately and likely to e an outsider. 

SUMMARY: This class 6 stakes race wont take much winning so any stakes are automatically kept low, I will look to lay Penombre 6/1 and Won Love 7/2 if they are value to lay, Qaaraat 11/1, Sleight 11/1 and Knockabout Queen 3/1 could make the frame so maybe worth an each way interest if a bit enough price, I will be taking a risky punt on ROCKLEY POINT 40/1 (EW) who has been known to lead before and with no other known front running types in this race I hope that's the tactics they deploy and if doing so could lead all the way but an each way bet will give a bit of insurance if it does lead and gets caught but I think with this horse its either hit or miss and I personally will stick with a win bet. 

Rockley Point 80/1 9th -2pts

Lay bets Jems Bond -3.2pts, Won Love +1pt, Penombre +1pt

Total -3.2pts

NEWCASTLE 7.30 

GOOD EARTH doesn't feature in my top four ratings but will be trying to stay on at the finish but maybe too late for the win but it could possibly make the frame.

ONE HART has average looking trainer/jockey stats but is another that might need further to show its best but this one I will look to lay if a single figure price. 

KHABIB is one of the two known front runners in this race but time wise its not in my top four ratings using a Wolverhampton speed figure.

SAVALAS hasn't shown much time wise since 2020 , its best in 2021 only just registers on my figures but its 2020 rating would put it in 2nd top spot on overall figures but it think it will be an outsider on recent form.

ANNIE ROSE sits a bit outside my top four ratings but it was recorded here this year which is always a positive it stays on as though further would suit it better and might be worth laying.

TANTASTIC this one sits just outside my top four rated horses and has a poor 1-15 record on the artificial surfaces so not for me.

MUTABAAHY this one also sits just outside my top four rated horses and another one that might be better suited to a longer distance but I expect it to be an outsider.

TATHMEEN is my fourth top rated horse using a time from way back in 2019 and its had five slow times over this course and distance since that year so maybe one to lay if of value.

SAM'S CALL hasn't any distance form on an artificial surface and it best form on turf is too low to register and likely to be a double figure price. 

TANASOQ this one is my top rated using a course and distance it record last year and its fourth place finish last time out hinted at a return to form might be imminent. 

MOKAMANN is the other known front running type and is my third top rated and could go well with an easy lead although its still a maiden after 11 attempts on the AW courses and hasn't shown much lately and likely to be an outsider.

SUMMARY:

The early pace looks likely to be set by Mokaman 25/1 and or Khabib 16/1 but doubt either can stay there for the victory as they have both been out of form but I think they will be double figure prices, I will look to lay One Hart 6/1 if a single figure price, there might be an addition to this list,namely Sam's Call , when I've seen some betting, Savalas 16/1 is my second top rated horse in this race and could go well if it avoids early trouble being drawn in between the 2 likely pacesetters in stall 3, my money will be riding on TANASOQ 8/1 who hinted at a return to form on its last run and a repeat of its best speed figure from last year would see it winning a shade cosily.

Tanasoq 12/1 Unp -1pt 

Lay bets One Hart +1pt, Tathmeen +1pt

Total +1pt 

Total on the day -2.2pts

Lay bets must be 9/1 and less sp. 

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