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Thursday, 17 February 2022

6:45 Southwell Racing Tips (18th February)

SOUTHWELL 6.45 

IF YOU DARE 2/1 is one that could set the pace to this race and with only 6 runners the draw should have very little if any effect, it has good trainer/jockey stats and comes out top rated on course and distance times since the change of surface.

BERGERAC 5/1 is usually a hold up type and recorded a good speed figure on its only AW distance run, enough to make it my top rated using that Wolverhampton time and it should have a good target to aim at in this race.

TIPPERARY TIGER 11/4 has good trainer/jockey stats but only comes out 3rd best on Tapeta times from elsewhere but its speed figure for this course and distance leaves it with a bit to find so maybe one to lay at the price. 

DAVE DEXTER 16/1 its 40 runners and 103 days since this stable last won a race and I think this horse needs a longer distance to show its best form and I wouldn't be surprised if its the outsider in this race. 

FINE WINE 15/2 the trainer is 1-30 for the last 2 weeks so not in the best of form and over this distance it hasn't got a recorded rating as it doesn't stay the sixth furlong in a fast run race and I will look to lay it with the make-up of this race looking likely to be fast from the off. 

TEMPLE BRUER 4/1 the jockey is 0-15 for the stable, its 61 days since the stable last had a winner from 29 runners during that time and their record is 1-27 with their older horses here, the horse is 0-9 on AW tracks although it has been placed in 4 of them so maybe another one to lay. 

SUMMARY: Typical its the only older horse sprint for the day from 2 meetings and its a class 3 race so we end up with 6 runners at least there is some known front running types amongst them. Firstly I will look to lay Fine Wine as I think there will be a fast early pace and that will stretch this ones stamina to breaking point, I would also lay Dave Dexter if its a single figure price, which I doubt while the poor trainer/jockey stats put me off the chances of Temple Bruer,Tipperary Jack needs to improve a bit time wise but does have good trainer/jockey stats but I doubt it can win this race if the other two run to their best, i think the early pace will be set by IF YOU DARE 2/1 who is my top rated on just course and distance times and ought to prove hard to catch, I haven't managed so far found a link between times on this new surface and the other 2 Tapeta suraced courses so I therefore cannot discard BERGERAC 5/1 who is my top rated on those 2 other courses and usually runs on at the finish so this race might be run to suit it but the jockeys 1-15 record is a little off-putting but I will have to go with the two bets to cover both of the angles of a front runner type and a finishing type.

Abandoned due to storm Eunice. 

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