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Monday, 28 February 2022

7:30 Newcastle Racing Tips (1st March)

NEWCASTLE 7.30 

ONE HART usually stays on nearing the finish but I'm doubtful it will get there soon enough to win this race and might have been flattered last time out when finishing 3rd so maybe worth a lay bet. 

ATHOLLBLAIR BOY this one usually likes to track the leaders and if I go back to 2019 its rating would be good enough to win here but has been a bit below that level since then but could make the frame. 

TRUE MASON is the most likely pacesetter to this race but time wise it would need to improve a good few spots to win this race and may need this run for fitness like it does usually after a break from racing. 

ROYAL ADVICE is my joint top rated using a 2021 c/d rating but there is only 2lbs between my top 3 ratings so all must have a winning chance but it 2 recent runs have been poor and that's enough to put me off this ones chances. 

SOMEWHERE SECRET is versatile when it comes to racing tactics and has been known to lead before but time wise it would need to improve and I'm not sure it could lead even if it wanted to in this race. 

GINATO is my 3rd top rated on course and distance times from 2021/22 and top rated using recent speed figures from Southwell and has a good jockey stats, it usually races in midfield before staying on strongly at the finish. 

MERRY SECRET has relatively slow times over this course and distance and that is maybe due to it looking likely to appreciate a longer distance. 

TATHMEEN is my other joint top rated and a versatile type when it comes to racing tactics and if deciding to go from the front it could prove hard to catch but its already had 7 races this year and has been running fairly consistently but without winning and maybe this 7yo is going downhill slightly form wise with age. 

RABAT races as though a longer distance would suit it better but i think it will be an outsider and a bit of a surprise if it was to win this race.

GLOBAL VISION has won on this course over seven furlongs and may get a bit outpaced over this distance and will a surprise winner if winning this race and i think the betting will have it as a double figure chance. 

THE COLA KID hasn't been in the best of form recently and looking at past form it may be a better prospect when racing on the Polytrack surface and i expect a rank outsider in this race.

GIORGIO VASARI this is another that looks a better horse when racing on the faster.
Polytrack surface and has been in dire form recently and another i suspect will be a rank outsider. 

SUMMARY: I will definitely look to lay True Mason 6/1 if its a single figure price as it needs to improve time wise and looks more than likely to need this race for fitness after having a 126 day break since its last run, One Hart will also be one that I might look to lay if its fancied in the betting as another that needs to improve time wise and maybe that's because a longer trip might suit it better, Tathmeen and Somewhere Secret could run well if reproducing their best but i have reasons why I think they might not win this race but could be each way prospects but my money will be riding on GINATO 11/2 who has run reasonably well in its four runs this year and has been found a decent chance to get back to winning ways and the switch to today's jockey makes me think that connections are expecting a big run from it.

Ginato 11/2 2nd -1pt 

Lay bets One Hart +1pt, True Mason +1pt 

Total on the day +1pt 

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