2:15 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (29th April)

WOLVERHAMPTON 2.15 

With 9 runners and 1 known front runner it might be an ok race to bet/lay in, for the lays I am looking at Gustav Graves 9/4 and *Capla Spirit 6/1 who both might find the trip too far for them with a good early gallop while Gherkin 3/1 might prefer the Polytrack surface, I've got Decision Maker 16/1 as my 2nd top rated and hasn't been at its best in its latest races but could make the frame if bouncing back to form while I will be backing RED ALERT 12/1 (EW) who is my top rated and does like a decent pace to aim at so this race could be run to suit it and hopefully an each way wager will play dividends. 

*NR

Red Alert 14/1 8th -2pts

Lay bets Gustav Graves +1pt 

Total -1pt 

GOODWOOD 2.40 

A class 2 race with 10 runners and 2 known front runners so it should be a true run affair, as for lays Fine Wine 8/1 may prefer some cut in the ground and has poor trainer stats while Tone The Barone 6/1 may not want to be on the firm side of good, Lihou can produce good ratings but in lower class races but could possibly make the frame, Atlantis Boy could go well and will be trying to run on at the finish, I will be hoping LIVE IN THE MOMENT 11/1 who has a rating from Doncaster last year that makes it my top rated but the trainers 0-14 record at this track is a bit off putting and means my stake will be kept low. 

Live In The Moment 11/1 Unp -1pt 

Lay bet Fine Wine +1pt 

Total 0pts 

GOODWOOD 3.50 

A 10 runner class 3 race with 3 horses that could set the pace to the race, Many A Star 7/1 would be a danger if it was good to firm going but may better in slightly lower class races so I doubt it will be winning this race, I'm not sure if I could lay Crimson Sand 11/2 but it does seem a better prospect on an artificial surface, The Lamplighter and Count Otto will both be trying to stay on at the finish and could possibly make the frame, I will be backing BOWMAN 22/1 (EW) who is dropped in class from its recent runs and jockey is 1-4 for the stable so hope its an omen and that connections are expecting it to get back to winning ways in this race and at the price I can go with an each way wager as a form of insurance. 

Bowman 28/1 8th -2pts

Total -2pts  

NEWCASTLE 7.55

I hope all 8 runners take part in case anything crops up as an each way bet, Tathmeen has been known to lead before but only when nothing else wants to but it doesn't usually win at this level but could make the frame, Spice Store may need a longer trip to show its best and hasn't made the frame in any of its 5 races so will be a lay if a single figure price, Redzone and Athollblair Boy are my 3rd and 2nd top rated and either could make the frame, my money will be riding on GINATO 4/1 but hasn't won from 16 races on the AW tracks but has made the frame in 9 of those races and as it has won on turf it is capable of winning so hoping it breaks its AW duck in this race. 

Ginato 11/2 6th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

NEWCASTLE 8.30

I'm not sure I can find anything of value to lay in this race but the betting will be the deciding factor, the early pace will be set by either Another Angel and/or Swiss Connection and if the former can repeat its best 2020 rating it could easily make the frame as it would sit in 2nd top spot, I will be placing my faith in BLACKCURRENT 6/1 who has good trainer 28% and jockey 21% stats with their older horses, it finished 2nd last time out and can go one better in this race.

Blackcurrent 6.1 4th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -5pts

3:30 Southwell Racing Tips (10th March)

SOUTHWELL 3.30 Div I 

Too many races to write up about every horse in every race, this is a stakes race with just 3 horses rated 50 and one of them FOSSOS 16/1 is the only known front running type in the race and if getting to the front could have everything its own way and that is always dangerous, it hasn't been in form lately but this race wont take much winning, I will look to lay Arzaak who can find the distance too far in a true run race with a decently fast early pace, I will also back GIANT STEPS 12/1 (EW) who has recorded a decent time over this c/d but its still a maiden after 19 runs and the trainer is 0-25 at this course but the jockey does well for the stable, now I've seen the betting I will be having 2 each way bets in this race. 

Giant Steps 20/1 5th -2pt 

Fossos 20/1 6th -2pt

Lay bet Arzaak +1pt 

Total -3pts

SOUTHWELL 4.05 Div II

This division isn't much better and again there is 3 runners that are rated highest on 50 and one of them Chocco Star is one I will look to lay as it usually needs a run after a break for fitness although it is my 2nd top rated using a time from Wolverhampton last year and has only won once from 18 AW races, the front running type Seeking Perfection is top rated using a 2021 Newcastle speed figure but has been way out of form lately, my money will be riding on the other front running type in the shape of INDIAN AFFAIR 14/1 and the trainer has a decent 21% strike rate at this course. 

Indian Affair 33/1 5th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

SOUTHWELL 4.39 

 A class 3 race this doesn't look too great, Fine Wine 8/1 could be the one to set the pace but is up in class and may get outclassed but could be dangerous if allowed a soft lead but is only 4th best on my figures, the bottom weight Atlyah 10/3 is also likely to be outclassed at this level and one I will look to lay, the top weight Begerac has only 1 run over this distance on this surface at Wolverhampton and recorded a good speed figure but it usually runs well after a break and could make the frame here but hasn't ever won after a break so maybe a place only bet on the exchanges for this one, my money will be riding on SECOND COLLECTION 6/1 just hoping its not 2nd places its collecting, it recorded a decent rating on its sole run this year at Wolverhampton and if able to reproduce its best time from 2019 it would get back to winning ways. 

Second Collection 15/2 8th -1pt 

Lay bet Atiyah +1pt 

Total 0pts

NEWCASTLE 6.30 

There might be 12 runners but none of them are what I would call natural front running types which might hinder some of the runners, Merry Spirit 11/2 might be worth laying as I think it needs further to show its best form and this race might not be run to suit it, Mostallim has the best time from those that have run at Southwell on the newish Tapeta surface but hasn't shown much on the surface elsewhere, Desert Lime could go well again here as it looks to complete its hat trick and its hard to know what its done time wise as the surface has been running slower than normal, I cannot work out how GINATO 11/2 hasn't won any of its 14 AW races although it has made the frame in half of them and was unlucky when finishing 2nd behind Desert Lime where it didn't get a clear run when trying to make its move towards the front and the jockey does have a decent 25% win ratio for the stable. 

Ginato 11/2 2nd -1pt 

Lay bet Merry Secret +1pt 

Total 0pts

NEWCASTLE 7.30 

There's 5 known front running types in this 12 runner race but I think they might be setting the race up for something coming from off the pace, Blackcurrant, Joshua R and Ubaaha could go well from the front and could even make the frame but which one/s I'm not really sure, Porfin 6/1 might need further to show its best and could be worth laying, meanwhile I will be backing TANASOQ 11/2 who usually tracks the leaders and then stays on strongly at the finish and in the make-up of this race it could get a good tow into the race from stall 11 and get a good early position from which to attack nearing the finish.

Tanasoq 11/1 5th -1pt 

Lay bet Porfin +1pt 

Total 0pts

Total on the day -4pts

7:30 Newcastle Racing Tips (1st March)

NEWCASTLE 7.30 

ONE HART usually stays on nearing the finish but I'm doubtful it will get there soon enough to win this race and might have been flattered last time out when finishing 3rd so maybe worth a lay bet. 

ATHOLLBLAIR BOY this one usually likes to track the leaders and if I go back to 2019 its rating would be good enough to win here but has been a bit below that level since then but could make the frame. 

TRUE MASON is the most likely pacesetter to this race but time wise it would need to improve a good few spots to win this race and may need this run for fitness like it does usually after a break from racing. 

ROYAL ADVICE is my joint top rated using a 2021 c/d rating but there is only 2lbs between my top 3 ratings so all must have a winning chance but it 2 recent runs have been poor and that's enough to put me off this ones chances. 

SOMEWHERE SECRET is versatile when it comes to racing tactics and has been known to lead before but time wise it would need to improve and I'm not sure it could lead even if it wanted to in this race. 

GINATO is my 3rd top rated on course and distance times from 2021/22 and top rated using recent speed figures from Southwell and has a good jockey stats, it usually races in midfield before staying on strongly at the finish. 

MERRY SECRET has relatively slow times over this course and distance and that is maybe due to it looking likely to appreciate a longer distance. 

TATHMEEN is my other joint top rated and a versatile type when it comes to racing tactics and if deciding to go from the front it could prove hard to catch but its already had 7 races this year and has been running fairly consistently but without winning and maybe this 7yo is going downhill slightly form wise with age. 

RABAT races as though a longer distance would suit it better but i think it will be an outsider and a bit of a surprise if it was to win this race.

GLOBAL VISION has won on this course over seven furlongs and may get a bit outpaced over this distance and will a surprise winner if winning this race and i think the betting will have it as a double figure chance. 

THE COLA KID hasn't been in the best of form recently and looking at past form it may be a better prospect when racing on the Polytrack surface and i expect a rank outsider in this race.

GIORGIO VASARI this is another that looks a better horse when racing on the faster.

Polytrack surface and has been in dire form recently and another i suspect will be a rank outsider. 

SUMMARY: I will definitely look to lay True Mason 6/1 if its a single figure price as it needs to improve time wise and looks more than likely to need this race for fitness after having a 126 day break since its last run, One Hart will also be one that I might look to lay if its fancied in the betting as another that needs to improve time wise and maybe that's because a longer trip might suit it better, Tathmeen and Somewhere Secret could run well if reproducing their best but i have reasons why I think they might not win this race but could be each way prospects but my money will be riding on GINATO 11/2 who has run reasonably well in its four runs this year and has been found a decent chance to get back to winning ways and the switch to today's jockey makes me think that connections are expecting a big run from it.

Ginato 11/2 2nd -1pt 

Lay bets One Hart +1pt, True Mason +1pt 

Total on the day +1pt 

3:00 Nottingham Racing Tips (29th September)

NOTTINGHAM 3.00 

For a class 2 race this one doesn't thrill me, at least there is some early types in the race so I shouldn't complain as it should be a true run affair, the top weight Lezardeux 9/2 might be worth taking on with a lay bet as it can struggle to stay this distance at times and this race might emphasise its lack of stamina for the sixth furlong with 3 known front runners in the race, Jordan Electrics 25/1 is my 3rd top rated might do best of those running to the fore here and might be worth an each way interest at the price, my 2nd top rated is Second Collection 12/1 who did its best at Chester and this course is nothing like that one so I'm not sure if it can reproduce its best time here my money will be riding on WORLD OF WINDHOVEN 12/1 who won two runs ago at Yarmouth where it produced a fast time, fast enough to make it my top rated, its next run was at Newmarket where it finished sixth of six and the trainer reported that the horse didn't like the undulations on that course so its now switched back to a more level flat course so this time wont have any excuses and the trainer is in good form with 4 winners from 11 runners in the last two weeks. 

World Of Windhoven 12/1 9th -1pt 

Lay bet: Lezardeux +1pt 

Total 0pts  

CATTERICK 4.20 Div II

The 1st division of this race has 8 of the 11 runners either being a 3yo or a 4yo and there wasn't enough data to analyse the race, this division isn't great but I might have found a nugget amongst the dirt, looking at the tissue prices the bottom 5 in the handicap will be big prices so will not be of value to lay and I have negatives against everyone of them but I would maybe lay Qaaraat 7/1 and Jakacan 8/1 if they stay in single figure prices but I think they will drift out before the off, I could look to lay Dan De Light 8/1 who looks better over a shorter distance but I have to admit there's no known front running types in this race so maybe a lay isn't a good idea but if that's so then Emjaytwentythree 9/2 may be worth a lay as it might need further and is still a maiden after 13 runs but to lay either might be foolish in fact to lay anything might be downright stupid, Mr Trevor 4/1 is my 3rd top rated using a time from this year at Redcar but wont be an each way price but STRONSAY 9/1 might well be one to consider for and each way bet, admittedly it hasn't been in form lately but its best time from 2020 at Hamilton would actually make it my top rated but the jockeys 0-22 record for the stable and the stables 0-33 at this course do put me off but it might be worth a small investment, which leaves me with GINATO 2/1 who is my 2nd top rated but I expect this one will be the favourite but 1 win from 13 runs doesn't fill me with confidence but does seem the safest option in this race.

Ginato 2/1 1st +2pts

Stronsay 12/1 4th -2pts 

Total 0pts 

Total on the day 0pts