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Wednesday, 9 March 2022

3:30 Southwell Racing Tips (10th March)

SOUTHWELL 3.30 Div I 

Too many races to write up about every horse in every race, this is a stakes race with just 3 horses rated 50 and one of them FOSSOS 16/1 is the only known front running type in the race and if getting to the front could have everything its own way and that is always dangerous, it hasn't been in form lately but this race wont take much winning, I will look to lay Arzaak who can find the distance too far in a true run race with a decently fast early pace, I will also back GIANT STEPS 12/1 (EW) who has recorded a decent time over this c/d but its still a maiden after 19 runs and the trainer is 0-25 at this course but the jockey does well for the stable, now I've seen the betting I will be having 2 each way bets in this race. 

Giant Steps 20/1 5th -2pt 
Fossos 20/1 6th -2pt

Lay bet Arzaak +1pt 

Total -3pts

SOUTHWELL 4.05 Div II

This division isn't much better and again there is 3 runners that are rated highest on 50 and one of them Chocco Star is one I will look to lay as it usually needs a run after a break for fitness although it is my 2nd top rated using a time from Wolverhampton last year and has only won once from 18 AW races, the front running type Seeking Perfection is top rated using a 2021 Newcastle speed figure but has been way out of form lately, my money will be riding on the other front running type in the shape of INDIAN AFFAIR 14/1 and the trainer has a decent 21% strike rate at this course. 

Indian Affair 33/1 5th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

SOUTHWELL 4.39 

 A class 3 race this doesn't look too great, Fine Wine 8/1 could be the one to set the pace but is up in class and may get outclassed but could be dangerous if allowed a soft lead but is only 4th best on my figures, the bottom weight Atlyah 10/3 is also likely to be outclassed at this level and one I will look to lay, the top weight Begerac has only 1 run over this distance on this surface at Wolverhampton and recorded a good speed figure but it usually runs well after a break and could make the frame here but hasn't ever won after a break so maybe a place only bet on the exchanges for this one, my money will be riding on SECOND COLLECTION 6/1 just hoping its not 2nd places its collecting, it recorded a decent rating on its sole run this year at Wolverhampton and if able to reproduce its best time from 2019 it would get back to winning ways. 

Second Collection 15/2 8th -1pt 

Lay bet Atiyah +1pt 

Total 0pts


NEWCASTLE 6.30 

There might be 12 runners but none of them are what I would call natural front running types which might hinder some of the runners, Merry Spirit 11/2 might be worth laying as I think it needs further to show its best form and this race might not be run to suit it, Mostallim has the best time from those that have run at Southwell on the newish Tapeta surface but hasn't shown much on the surface elsewhere, Desert Lime could go well again here as it looks to complete its hat trick and its hard to know what its done time wise as the surface has been running slower than normal, I cannot work out how GINATO 11/2 hasn't won any of its 14 AW races although it has made the frame in half of them and was unlucky when finishing 2nd behind Desert Lime where it didn't get a clear run when trying to make its move towards the front and the jockey does have a decent 25% win ratio for the stable. 

Ginato 11/2 2nd -1pt 

Lay bet Merry Secret +1pt 

Total 0pts

NEWCASTLE 7.30 

There's 5 known front running types in this 12 runner race but I think they might be setting the race up for something coming from off the pace, Blackcurrant, Joshua R and Ubaaha could go well from the front and could even make the frame but which one/s I'm not really sure, Porfin 6/1 might need further to show its best and could be worth laying, meanwhile I will be backing TANASOQ 11/2 who usually tracks the leaders and then stays on strongly at the finish and in the make-up of this race it could get a good tow into the race from stall 11 and get a good early position from which to attack nearing the finish.

Tanasoq 11/1 5th -1pt 

Lay bet Porfin +1pt 

Total 0pts

Total on the day -4pts

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