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Saturday, 16 April 2022

4:17 Southwell Racing Tips (17th April)

SOUTHWELL 4.17 

A full house of 14 runners with a couple of known front running types which is always a bonus when trying to analyse a race, as for any lays I think Silent Flame 12/1 who may need this run for fitness and has poor trainer 1-29 stats is the only one that will be of value to lay unless your happy laying double figure priced horses, Captain Vallo 8/1 is my top rated using a time recorded at Newcastle but is another that looks as though it might need this run for fitness but I doubt it will be a single figure price but if it stays in single figures I will look to lay it, my money will be riding on BURROW'S SEESIDE 6/1 who won for me last time out and has been found a good opportunity to follow up here and the jockey does have a good 25% win ratio on the stables older horses. 

Burrow's Seaside 6/1 9th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

SOUTHWELL 4.52 

This isn't the greatest of races even for a class 6 affair but once again there should be a decent early pace, I am not sure if I can find anything worthwhile to lay although Della Mare 9/2, one of the 2 known front runners in the field, will need to improve time wise using Wolverhampton and Newcastle ratings although its not as far off the top on just recent course and distance times but these ratings are still from a limited amount of data, to win this race but I am not sure I could lay it just in case it gets an easy lead but I doubt that will happen as I think DIRCHILL 8/1 could set the pace to this race and is my top rated on just recent course and distance times and has good jockey stats as he has a 24% win ratio for the stable while i have got JACK RYAN 4/1 as my top rated using Tapeta ratings at the other two courses and has good trainer stats 29% win ratio and decent jockey stats 15% win ratio and I will be backing them both to cover the angles of both sets of ratings and running styles.

Jack Ryan 9/2 2nd -1pt 
Dirchill 14/1 8th -1pt 

Total -2pt 

Total on the day -3pts

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