4:17 Southwell Racing Tips (17th April)

SOUTHWELL 4.17 

A full house of 14 runners with a couple of known front running types which is always a bonus when trying to analyse a race, as for any lays I think Silent Flame 12/1 who may need this run for fitness and has poor trainer 1-29 stats is the only one that will be of value to lay unless your happy laying double figure priced horses, Captain Vallo 8/1 is my top rated using a time recorded at Newcastle but is another that looks as though it might need this run for fitness but I doubt it will be a single figure price but if it stays in single figures I will look to lay it, my money will be riding on BURROW'S SEESIDE 6/1 who won for me last time out and has been found a good opportunity to follow up here and the jockey does have a good 25% win ratio on the stables older horses. 

Burrow's Seaside 6/1 9th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

SOUTHWELL 4.52 

This isn't the greatest of races even for a class 6 affair but once again there should be a decent early pace, I am not sure if I can find anything worthwhile to lay although Della Mare 9/2, one of the 2 known front runners in the field, will need to improve time wise using Wolverhampton and Newcastle ratings although its not as far off the top on just recent course and distance times but these ratings are still from a limited amount of data, to win this race but I am not sure I could lay it just in case it gets an easy lead but I doubt that will happen as I think DIRCHILL 8/1 could set the pace to this race and is my top rated on just recent course and distance times and has good jockey stats as he has a 24% win ratio for the stable while i have got JACK RYAN 4/1 as my top rated using Tapeta ratings at the other two courses and has good trainer stats 29% win ratio and decent jockey stats 15% win ratio and I will be backing them both to cover the angles of both sets of ratings and running styles.

Jack Ryan 9/2 2nd -1pt 

Dirchill 14/1 8th -1pt 

Total -2pt 

Total on the day -3pts

7:00 Southwell Racing Tips (15th March)

SOUTHWELL 7.00 

A typical class 6 sprint over 5 furlongs with just 2 known front running types amongst the 12 runners, firstly I will look to lay Lesha 4/1 who seems a better prospect when racing on the Polytrack surface anything else that I could lay I expect will be double figure prices and represent no value to lay, as for the winner Equally Fast hasn't shown much time wise since 2020 but being a possible pacesetter it could do enough to make the frame although I doubt it can win this race so maybe worth looking to lay if a single figure price nearing the off, Raabeh would have a good chance if able to reproduce its best time from 2020 but last years best figure was way below that level and its time when winning over this c/d 2 runs ago was in a relatively slow run race and it might not pick up the leaders in this race, Scale Force comes from the Gay Kellaway stable and is my top rated using its time recorded at Wolverhampton this year and usually stays on strongly over this distance but it has a stablemate running, MOVEONUP who is the other front running type in the race and comes out top rated using my recent c/d speed figures which it recorded when winning from the front 2 runs ago and missed the kick last time out so that can be forgiven and if leading here it could prove hard to catch but I might have a smaller covering bet on its stablemate just in case that's the one that's trying out or the two of them. 

Moveonup 14/1 8th -1pt 

Lay bets Lesha +1pt

Total 0pts 

NEWCASTLE 7.45 

A 6 runner race, Badri might need this run for fitness after being off for over 530 days, Ben Macdul might find the distance too far with a fast early pace which looks likely here, Jungle Speed one of the 2 known front running types in this race might prefer the Polytrack surface and might be outclassed at this class 4 level and the same applies to Ginato who has been running well but is put up in class here without winning, I think that Ghathanfar 9/2 could be the one to do for the forecast as its usually stays on strongly at the finish but I doubt it will catch up with the one that I think will set the pace to this race and I can see SPARTAN FIGHTER 2/1 completing its hat trick. 

Spartan Fighter 11/4 4th -1pt 

Total -1pt

SOUTHWELL 8.30 

Quite a competitive class 5 race with 12 runners and 2 known front running types, I always mention front running types because without them you are not guaranteed a strong early gallop and then it becomes a 2 furlong dash and anything can happen, Igotatext 6/1 is one of the possible pacesetters but I don't think this surface sees it at its best and so much so I will look to lay it, I will also look to lay Sarah's Verse 9/1 and Capla Spirit 6/1 as they both look better over shorter distances, then the other way round I could look to lay Burj Malinka as it might prefer a longer distance to show its best that's if they are single figure prices, Steelriver 12/1 is always capable of running well but has disappointed on its last 3 runs but is top rated on just recent c/d times but that is from the very limited amount of data I had to work with, Tributo 12/1 could be the one to set the pace to the race and then it could do enough to make the frame, Vivency 20/1 and Water Of Leith 5/1 both have ratings that could see them be there at the business end of this race but my money will be riding on BURROW'S SEESIDE 5/1 who has made the frame in all four of its races this year and has a chance here to go even better and get back to winning ways.

Burrow's Seeside 5/1 1st +5pts

Lay bets Igotatext +1pt, Capla Spirit +1pt, Burj Malinka +1pt

Total 8pts 

Total on the day +7pts

2:30 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (22nd December)

WOLVERHAMPTON 2.30 

In this 5 furlong dash I can see 5 horses that like or can lead and with a bit of luck this race could be won from the front as long as they don't go off too fast and fade badly approaching the finish, maybe Araifjan 7/1 might be worth taking on with a lay bet as it usually runs better over a longer distance, Red Walls comes out 3rd top and is a possible pacesetter but is drawn in stall 10 of the 11 runners, Savalas coming out of stall 6 comes out 2nd top on my figures and it is another one that has been known to lead before while my top rated is ROYDMOOR 9/2 who won for me last time out and has been found a good opportunity to follow up here as long as stall 9 doesn't prove to be its downfall but time wise I think it should be fast enough away to gain a good early prominent position and if reproducing its best rating it would follow up here with a few spots in hand. 

WOLVERHAMPTON 3.00 

For a class 4 affair this isn't the greatest of races, I can only suggest a couple that might be worth taking an each way punt on, TRIGGERED 20/1 (EW) comes out top using a time it recorded at Newcastle in 2020 but hasn't any form over this course while the jockey has an overall win ratio of 20% for the stable but it does drop to 13% on the stables older horses, PORTELET BAY 10/1 (EW) who comes out 2nd best on overall figures but is top rated on just 2021 course and distance times and the jockey has a decent 18% win ratio on the stables 3yo’s. 

SOUTHWELL 7.30 

I will look to lay Porterinthejungle 6/1 who may need a longer distance to show its true merit and this race might not be run to suit it with just one natural front running type in the race and that horse is better over 5 furlongs so I'm not sure if there will be a fast early pace while if there is a decent early pace then Capla Spirit 6/1 may struggle to stay the distance, Royal Advice and Tathmeen are my joint 3rd top rated so could make the frame, I've got BURROW'S SEESIDE 8/1 (EW) as my 2nd top rated and this one usually races in midfield before staying on at the finish but it will need to bounce back to form to win this race, my top rated is STORM OVER 33/1 (EW) another who will need to return to form, both are capable on their day and hopefully a couple of each way wagers will pay dividends.

Lay bets only if single-figure odds at sp.

5:45 Newcastle Racing Tips & Lay Bets (30th October)

NEWCASTLE 5.45 

This class five, five-furlong dash has a couple of known front running types but one of them the 3yo Dandizette would need to improve time-wise to win this race, I will look to lay (Nibras Again + Wades Magic) if, in single figure prices at the off, there is plenty of runners, War Whisper, Klopp Nubough, Big Lachie, Royal Brave, Superiority, Burtonwood and Brandy Station that could be staying on at the finish and battle amongst them to fill the frame, so there might be a chance of some each-way bets depending on their prices but my money will be riding on the back of SLOWMO 9/1 who is my top rated and also the other known front runner in the race so if getting to the front could prove hard to catch. 

Slowmo 9/1 9th (-1pt)

Lay bets: Nibras Again -16pts, Wades Magic +1pt

Total: -16pts 

NEWCASTLE 8.15 

In this race I will look to lay (Reely Bonnie + Cloudea + *Be Proud) as long as they are in single figure prices otherwise they are not of much value, I can see 3 horses that like to lead, Captain Jameson but i have a feeling this one might not like this surface, Look Out Louis who hasn't run on the AW before but has won at the distance on turf so could be a danger, Lezardieux who comes out 2nd top overall if it can reproduce its best speed figure from Wolverhampton so could go well from the front, Oriental Lilly is my 3rd top-rated but only 1lb below 2nd top spot, the horse at the bottom of the handicap is BURROW'S SEESIDE 11/2 who won last time out in a class 6 and this improving 3yo should be able to cope with this rise in class and will be the one I shall be backing.

Burrow's Seeside 11/2 (+5.5pts) (Betfair SP 2.3)

Lay bets: Reely Bonnie +1pt, Cloudia +1pt

Total: +7.5pts

Total on the day: -8.5pts