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Tuesday, 3 May 2022

7:30 Kempton Racing Tips (4th May)

KEMPTON 7.30 

LIGHT LILLY 2/1 this one might set the pace to this race so could be dangerous if allowed an easy lead, I think a longer distance would suit it better so i'm not convinced this race will be run to suit it and if it leads and sets a slower pace it might not be able to bring its stamina into play so maybe worth the risk to lay it at the price. 

JOY CHOI 8/1 is making its debut on an artificial surface so I'm not sure what to expect but on turf it seemed to prefer some cut in the ground so it might be better suited to the Tapeta surface but I'm not sure if I could lay it at the price. 

CAMACHESS 4/1 hasn't shown much in its 3 runs over this course and distance but it has a rating which it recorded in 2021 at Lingfield that would make it my top rated and it has decent trainer stats and even better jockey stats making me think connections are expecting it to go well here. 

LIBERTY BAY 9/1 has won over this course and distance before and its best ratings are all around the same level so it would need to improve time wise to win this race but I expect it to be an outsider so its up to your risk levels if you are prepared to lay it or not. 

*TRIDEVL 22/1 has had four runs and has shown nothing worthwhile from any of them so I expect it to be the rank outsider in the betting but a lay if of value to do so. 

HEERS SADIE 8/1 has won on turf before but is 0-5 on an All-Weather surface but has made the frame in two of those five runs and its best times on turf haven't been good enough to register on my graphs so maybe worth laying. 

RAINBOW MIRAGE 4/1 is my top rated on recent, 2021/22, ratings and second top on my overall figures so should go well here as it is a course and distance winner, it has decent trainer stats but has much better jockey stats so it looks another where connections are expecting a big run. 

AMAZING AMAYA 8/1 hasn't any form at this course and the distance which might be too short for it on this fast surface and seems a much better prospect when racing on the Tapeta surface so maybe another one to lay if of value nearer the off time. 

SUMMARY: The top weight Light Lilly could set the pace to this race but I think its prospects would be better on the Tapeta surface and hasn't shown much in its two runs over this distance on this Polytrack surface, the betting will decide whether I post any lays for this race while as for the winner I will be backing CAMACHESS 4/1 who comes out top on overall figures if I use its rating from 2020 at Lingfield and it can reproduce that rating here while RAINBOW MIRAGE 4/1 is my top rated on more recent ratings and this one is figure was recorded over this course and distance and with both having positive jockey bookings they look as if both are expected to go very well here but I might split my stakes 60/40 in favour of Rainbow Mirage.

*NR

Rainbow Mirage 11/2 1st 2.2pts + EX £22.40
Camachess 4/1 2nd -0.6pts 

Lay bets Light Lily +1pt, Heers Sadie +1pt

Total on the day +3.6pts 

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