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Monday, 1 August 2022

7:50 Kempton Racing Tips (2nd August)

KEMPTON 7.50 

This is quite a complex race with form lines and speed figures from varying courses and from the 2 different surfaces, Prop Forward 9/4 is one of two that have been known to lead and it has a decent rating on the Tapeta surface at Wolverhampton and an even better one from Southwell but it hasn't run on this Polytrack surface before so not sure what to expect from it so not a bet or a lay and dampens my confidence in backing anything against it, Mohareb is the other that might lead but would need to improve time wise to hold on for the win, Nationwide is my top rated using a Tapeta rating but its win over this course and distance was a slow run affair but that's not enough proof to lay this one or back it, Strong Power is my 3rd top rated using a 2022 rating at Chelmsford, my top rated using only Polytrack speed figures is AYR HARBOUR 8/1 (EW) who likes to track the leaders and hopefully it will be an each way price but if not then this race is maybe best left alone. 

Ayr Harbour 9/1 2nd +0.8pts 

Total +0.8pts

CHELMSFORD 8.10 

This is a very poor stakes race where most of them haven't shown much worthwhile form lately, Twilight Bay 7/1 is still a maiden after 10 races and today's distance might be too far for it with a fast early gallop, Gossamer Silk 5/1 has a rating on Tapeta but nothing on this Polytrack surface, I think Company Minx 4/1 might be worth laying on this surface as it doesn't seem to suit it, Super Julius might be better when dropped back in distance but with no known front runners in this race it could become a messy tactical affair but I am hoping there is at least a decent early gallop and then i will have a small bet on BRAZEN ARROW 6/1 (EW) who is the only one who has registered on my figures over this distance and surface so might be worth an each way interest. 

Brazen Arrow 6/1 5th -1pt 

Lay bet Company Minx -3pts 

Total -4pts 

KEMPTON 8.20 

There is a couple of known front running types in this race which hopefully makes things easier to analyse, Silver Dollar 11/4 may need further to show its best form so could be worth laying and the same applies to Starter For Ten 15/2, Beauen Arrows 7/1 has won over today's course and distance but that was a slow run affair and might have been flattered by that result and maybe worth taking on here, Cool Spirit 28/1 one of the possible pacesetters comes out 3rd top on my figures so could be an each way punt if bouncing back to form, NUBOUGH (EW) 12/1 comes out in 2nd top spot and usually tracks the leaders before staying on at the finish, SIR RODNEYREDBLOOD 12/1 (EW) is my top rated and also the other front running type in the race and if getting to the front could prove hard to catch but is an inconsistent type so i will go with a front runner and a finishing type to cover the angles and at the prices it has to be two each way wagers.

Nubough 18/1 2nd +2.6pts
Sir Rodneyredblood 4th 16/1 -2pts 

Lay bet Silver Dollar +1pts 

Total +1.6pts 

Total on the day  -1.6pts

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