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Tuesday, 2 August 2022

2:30 Newcastle Racing Tips (3rd August)

NEWCASTLE 2.30 

What a waste of time most of my hard work has been, there are 7 sprints today but after doing everything for each race I'm down to just 2. I'm not sure what will set the pace to this race but it could be TATHMEEN 10/1 and if it can then reproduce its best time from 2020 it would become my 2nd top rated and this is a drop in class so could lead all the way and will be carrying some of my money, I'm not sure if Slainte Minath 4/1 likes this surface as its one run here was a poor effort, as it won last time out on soft ground at Ayr it might be a shorter price than its chance merits and may be worth taking a risk and laying it, Lincoln Pride 9/2 may need further but as its only a 3yo I'm not 100% sure enough to actually lay it, unless its a short price, Zamjar 20/1 and Billy Wedge 9/1 have bits of form and could possibly make the frame but I will take a punt and back ARNOLD 13/2 who has never won on an artificial surface from 11 attempts but has made the frame in 6 of them and could break that duck here but the jockeys 0-28 record for the stable is a bit off-putting so I will go with backing the 2 horses to cover the angles. 

Arnold 13/2 2nd -1pt 
Tathmeen 10/1 7th -1pt 

Lay bet Slainte Minath +1pt 

Total -1pt

PONTEFRACT 4.50 

If i knew what was going to set the pace and more importantly how strong a pace, it would make my analysis very much easier, the 3yo Sherdil has won twice over this distance at Beverley but they were both slow run affairs so not sure what it can do with a fast early pace but this race could be run to suit it, Ballintoy Harbour 18/1 and Soul Seeker 9/1 are both capable of winning this race on a going day but both have been way out of form recently so I couldn't back them and I think they will be too big a price to lay, Rhythm 12/1 and Melody King 4/1 are joint 3rd top rated on more recent form and could make the frame, Lost My Sock 5/1 usually stays on at the finish so maybe this race wont be run to suit but is my 2nd top rated, I will be backing VAN GERWEN 16/1 (EW) who usually likes to track the leaders and then stay on the stronger at the finish, it has good trainer/jockey stats and its best rating was recorded this year at Ripon and a repeat would see it back in the winners enclosure and at the price means it can be backed each way.

Van Gerwen 16/1 2nd +2.2pts 

Lay bet Soul Seeker -6.5pts 

Total -4.3pts 

Total on the day -5.3pts

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