8:15 Southwell Racing Tips (17th February)

SOUTHWELL 8.15 

A full house of fourteen in this class six sprint with four known front running types amongst them and this race could well be won from the front as my two top rated horses both like to lead. I will look to lay both *Privilege and Marwari if a single figure price as they can struggle to stay this distance when there's a fast early pace whilst Magicinthemaking races as though further suits it better so is added to my list of possible lays. Jack Ryan who can be held up or track the leaders is my fourth top rated horse and could get a good tow into the race being drawn in stall nine with two known fast starters in the two stalls just on its inside and it is only one pound behind Giselles Izzy who sits in third top spot and this one usually likes to race in midfield before trying to stay on at the finish. BRAZEN ARROW 12/1 is my top rated using a Wolverhampton rating from last year but the stable hasn't had a winner for nearly one hundred and fifty days although they have only had forty five runners during that time spell, it does have the coveted stall one draw which is a bonus and would probably have been my sole bet in this race if the stable had been in better form so I will also be backing BIG IMPACT 25/1 who is my second top rated using a course and distance rating recorded last year but its been nearly fifty days since this stable had a winner but I'm hoping one of them can lead all the way for the victory. 

*NR

Big Impact 25/1 5th -1pt 

Brazen Arrow 12/1 9th -1pt 

Lay bets Marwari +1pt  

Total on the day -1pt

7:50 Kempton Racing Tips (2nd August)

KEMPTON 7.50 

This is quite a complex race with form lines and speed figures from varying courses and from the 2 different surfaces, Prop Forward 9/4 is one of two that have been known to lead and it has a decent rating on the Tapeta surface at Wolverhampton and an even better one from Southwell but it hasn't run on this Polytrack surface before so not sure what to expect from it so not a bet or a lay and dampens my confidence in backing anything against it, Mohareb is the other that might lead but would need to improve time wise to hold on for the win, Nationwide is my top rated using a Tapeta rating but its win over this course and distance was a slow run affair but that's not enough proof to lay this one or back it, Strong Power is my 3rd top rated using a 2022 rating at Chelmsford, my top rated using only Polytrack speed figures is AYR HARBOUR 8/1 (EW) who likes to track the leaders and hopefully it will be an each way price but if not then this race is maybe best left alone. 

Ayr Harbour 9/1 2nd +0.8pts 

Total +0.8pts

CHELMSFORD 8.10 

This is a very poor stakes race where most of them haven't shown much worthwhile form lately, Twilight Bay 7/1 is still a maiden after 10 races and today's distance might be too far for it with a fast early gallop, Gossamer Silk 5/1 has a rating on Tapeta but nothing on this Polytrack surface, I think Company Minx 4/1 might be worth laying on this surface as it doesn't seem to suit it, Super Julius might be better when dropped back in distance but with no known front runners in this race it could become a messy tactical affair but I am hoping there is at least a decent early gallop and then i will have a small bet on BRAZEN ARROW 6/1 (EW) who is the only one who has registered on my figures over this distance and surface so might be worth an each way interest. 

Brazen Arrow 6/1 5th -1pt 

Lay bet Company Minx -3pts 

Total -4pts 

KEMPTON 8.20 

There is a couple of known front running types in this race which hopefully makes things easier to analyse, Silver Dollar 11/4 may need further to show its best form so could be worth laying and the same applies to Starter For Ten 15/2, Beauen Arrows 7/1 has won over today's course and distance but that was a slow run affair and might have been flattered by that result and maybe worth taking on here, Cool Spirit 28/1 one of the possible pacesetters comes out 3rd top on my figures so could be an each way punt if bouncing back to form, NUBOUGH (EW) 12/1 comes out in 2nd top spot and usually tracks the leaders before staying on at the finish, SIR RODNEYREDBLOOD 12/1 (EW) is my top rated and also the other front running type in the race and if getting to the front could prove hard to catch but is an inconsistent type so i will go with a front runner and a finishing type to cover the angles and at the prices it has to be two each way wagers.

Nubough 18/1 2nd +2.6pts

Sir Rodneyredblood 4th 16/1 -2pts 

Lay bet Silver Dollar +1pts 

Total +1.6pts 

Total on the day  -1.6pts

2:00 Southwell Racing Tips (3rd February)

SOUTHWELL 2.00 Div I

A poor race split into 2 divisions so its not a race to be betting in too heavily, Sir Gregory 6/4 won last time out over this distance at Kempton but that was a slow run race and it might have been flattered by the result, its 3 runs on this surface at Wolverhampton all resulted in slow times and is poor value so I will look to lay it, I will also look to lay Won Love 5/1 who has poor trainer/jockey stats and is still a maiden after 9 runs with slow times at both Kempton and Lingfield so would need to improve for the switch to this Tapeta surface, Wicklow Warrior 25/1 is my 3rd top rated but hasn't been in form in its latest runs and I'm not sure it would be worth the risk to back it each way, Delegate The Lady 12/1 comes out 2nd top rated but that's using a time recorded at Chelmsford while its sole run on this surface resulted in a slow time so not a back or lay in my eyes, my money will be riding on BRAZEN ARROW 6/1 who won last time out at Wolverhampton and has been found a good chance to follow up that win and in the make-up of this race stall 9 might not prevent it from getting to the front an setting the pace and then could prove hard to catch. 

Brazon Arrow 6/1 2nd -1pt 

Lay bets Won Love +1pt 

Total 0pts

SOUTHWELL 2.30 Div II

I said this was a poor race and this 2nd division is dire I have found a negative against every single horse in the race, I was at first thinking about laying Western Rocket and Rhubarb but with such poor opposition they might now have a chance so I'm saying leave this race alone, no bets or lays. 

CHELMSFORD 6.00 

I can see 3 front running types in this race and I will backing one to lead all the way as my top 2 rated horses are both in those 3, *Zarzyni 9/4 hasn't any form on this surface and may need a longer distance to show its best form and would need to improve on its best rating on the Tapeta surface at Wolverhampton so looks poor value and worth laying at the price, another I will look to lay is Royal Pleasure who hasn't any form over this distance but might prefer a longer distance to show its true worth, Muscika and Count Otto are my 3rd and 4th top rated and could do best of those coming from off the pace, Nigel Nott 25/1 has the plum stall 1 draw and is my 2nd top rated so could go well and might be worth an each way punt but I will be backing TOP BREEZE who will be hard to catch if getting to the front and has good trainer/jockey stats. 

*NR

Top Breeze 15/2 6th -1pt 

Lay bet Royal Pleasure -4pt

Total -5pts 

CHELMSFORD 6.30 

Its a shame really because this is a class 3 race and I cannot analyse it to a conclusion, I was finding some horses to lay, Dark Side Prince, Lucky Ava and Crimson Sand who all look as thought they might be outclassed at this level but the facts are that only leaves the top weight that might be class enough to win but this ones trainer hasn't had a winner in the last 35 days, so it looks like I will be leaving this race alone as well as the earlier one.

Lay bets Lucky Ava -6.5pts, Crimson Sand +1pt, Dark Side Prince +1pt 

Total on the day -4.5pts

Total on the day -9.5pts