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Monday 17 October 2022

3:38 Newcastle Racing Tips (18th October)


I can see 5 horses in this race that have led before but I think they will be setting it up for something coming from off the pace, it isn't a great race for a class 3 affair but it should be a true run race, Jordan Electrics, Water Of Leith and Spartan Fighter are all possible pacesetters but all 3 of them do their winning in lower class races so maybe not quite up to winning here but one or more could still make the frame if reproducing their previous best, Lovely Mana, maybe too far for it, Running Wild, relatively slow times, and Fast And Loose, maybe not up to winning at this level could be possible lays if of value to do so, (value? Is an arguable stat because I know my sprinters inside out I can have a fairly accurate idea of what price the horse should be depending on its chances of winning so that is why I usually post my lays the morning of the races when the betting has settled down). Quest For Fun could do best of those racing to the fore in the early stages but my money will be riding on AASSER 9/1 who has won before after a break from racing so the 3 months its had off could see it come back and raring to go and the jockey does quite well when riding for the stable. 

Aasser 9/1 4th -1pt 

Lay bets Running Wild +1pt

Total 0pts


A poor looking class 6 sprint with just one known front running type amongst the 14 runners, I've marked down 3 possible lays that I'm hoping will be of value to lay, Willing To Please and Variety Island, who both might need further, and Cheese The One who has run in slow run affairs lately and might be flattered by finishing in the frame, the 3yo’s Randem Rocks and My Boy Jack could go well and might be worth each way wagers if of value to do so, this isn't a race to be betting very heavily in but I'm hoping a small each way wager on ASTAPOR 20/1(EW) might pay dividends as its the one i think might set the pace and then could be hard to catch. 

Astapor 40/1 9th -2pts 

Lay bets Variety Island +1pt, Cheese The One +1pt 

Total 0pts


The first division of a class 6 dash and surprisingly there is only a couple of known front running types in the race, I'm not sure if there will be anything of value to lay in this race but as usual the betting will be the deciding factor, High Security and or Mrs Bagerman could set the pace to the race and the latter could do best of the pair so might be worth an each way interest, Nellie French has pieces of form from the past that would give it a chance of making the frame but has been in poor form lately, Sugar Baby has been running in better company than today's but time wise it would need to improve to win this race so I'm not sure what to expect from it, Blackcurrant is another that could go well but seems to find it hard to win as many races as it should, I will be hoping that an each way bet on YAAHOBBY 12/1 (EW) will pay dividends and this one is usually held up for a late run and it is the type of horse that can bounce back to form without prior winning so lets hope its today. 

Yaahobby 18/1 3rd +2.6pts

Total +2.6pts


A field of 8 for this class 5 race with just one natural front running type amongst them, I'm always wary when laying 3yo’s because they are still capable of some improvement but I think both Lur Cinn Tra and Cabeza De Llave would be better prospects over a longer distance so I will have a small lay bet on them if of value to do so, Charming Kid can produce decent speed figures when things go right for it but hasn't been in good form lately, the top weighted Astral Beat is a 3yo who comes out 3rd best on my figures so might be worth an each way bet if a value price, I will be siding with HOWZAK 11/4 who won last time out and has been found an ideal opportunity to follow up here where i can see it leading all the way so the stall 2 draw is nearly perfect. 

Howzak 11/4 1st +2.75pts 

Lay bet Cabeza De Llave +1pt 

Total +3.75pts


Of the 12 runners I can see 3 that like to lead so a true run race looks likely, Porfin is my 4th top rated here but can find the distance too far with a fast pace so maybe one to lay in this race, Vape is my 3rd top rated and usually stays on at the finish but maybe too late for the win as long as others run to their best, Tell’em Nowt comes out 2nd best and usually races in midfield before staying on nearing the finish, my money will be riding on GOLD MEDAL 7/2 who is one of the front runners in the race isn't drawn well in stall 11 but with only 2 other likely pacesetters it could get out and follow the stall 8 horse across to the rails and then at least contest the lead and if getting to the front could prove hard to catch and the jockey has a decent record when riding for the stable.

Gold Medal 7/1 3rd 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day +5.35pts

Lay bets must be 9/1 and less sp (horses underlined)

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