A field of 9 for this class 5 sprint where I think the early pace will be set by Swiss Pride 7/2 who is my joint 3rd top rated and finished 2nd last time out and might have to be satisfied with a place again here but it could be very close near the finish but at the weights LILKIAN 6/1 should reverse the form, this one may have finished 5th that day but it was less than 2 lengths behind. My 2nd top rated horse is Daphne May who will be staying on at the finish and could make the frame. I might look to lay Shalaa Asker 15/2 and I'm Mable 14/1 if they are value to lay as they can both struggle to stay the distance when there's a fast early gallop.
Lilkian 6/1 5th -1pt
Lay bets Shalaa Asker +1pt
Total 0pts
SOUTHWELL 5.00
A full house of 14 runners for this class 6 dash on this straight 5 furlong course but I can only see a couple of horses that like to front run, Procivity 33/1 is one of them but has shown very little worthwhile form so I can see Pepper Streak 7/1 who is my 3rd top rated using a rating recorded on the Polytrack surface at Lingfield setting the pace and it could do enough from the front to make the frame if it takes to this Tapeta surface. The top weight Sir Gregory 6/1 has never won over this distance and may get outpaced in the early stages before trying to stay on at the finish, its not in my top 4 ratings so could struggle and I will look to lay it. Tantastic is my 4th top rated and can be held up for a late run or it can track the leaders, sitting in 2nd top spot is Basholo 20/1 in stall 10 which might not be ideal as I think those drawn middle to low have a slight advantage but at the price might be worth a small each way punt. My money will be riding on MARWARI 7/2 who is my top rated on Tapeta ratings from elsewhere and top on just course and distance ratings, the 7lb claiming apprentice is having their 1st ride for the stable and their claim could swings even further into its favour while the trainer has a 32% win ratio at this course with their older horses I'm not a fan of backing favourites and i thought this race would have been five to one the field.
Marwari 7/2 6th -1pt
Lay bet Sir Gregory +1pt
Total 0pts
Total on the day 0pts
No comments:
Post a Comment