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Saturday 14 January 2023

3:20 Southwell Racing Tips (15th Jauary)


THE GREEN MAN has made the frame in both of its AW runs but not over this distance and would need to improve on its best rating on turf to win this race. 

EMBOUR can be held up or track the leaders and is my top rated and in the make-up of this race stall 12 might not be too much of a problem. 

WYVERN is usually held up for a late run but would need to improve time wise to win this race and is poorly drawn in stall 13 for its racing style. 

THE THIN BLUE LINE another one that is usually held up at the back of the field and then delivered late but would need to improve a little time wise but could go well. 

WESTMORIAN this one won at Newcastle but that was a slow run affair and might find things happening too fast for it in this race. 

STRAITS OF MOYLE another horse that likes to be held up at the back of the field before running on at the finish, hasn't run here before needs to improve on its best Newcastle rating. 

ASADJUMEIRAH usually likes to race in midfield but hasn't run here before and would need to improve on its best Tapeta rating from Newcastle. 

MINESBIGGERTHANURS hasn't any form on this course and may need a longer distance before it can produce its best ratings. 

INTERVENTION is one of 3 in this race that have been known to lead before and in stall 4 has the lowest draw of the pacesetters so could possibly make the frame. 

JUSTCALLEPETE this one usually likes to track the leaders before staying on the stronger in the closing stages and is my top rated on just course and distance ratings. 

MOTAWAAZY a possible pacesetter from stall 8 but this trip can prove too far for it if the early pace is fast so this race might not be run to suit it. AIRSHOW the 3rd and final front running type in this race and coming out of stall 11 but time wise it would need to improve to win this race so not for me here. 

SHALAA ASKER is another one that struggles to stay the distance if the early gallop is a fast one so might struggle in this race. 

SUMMARY: I would look to lay Shalaa Asker 9/1, Motawaazy 8/1 and Westmorian 4/1 if they are of value to do so, i am a little worried whether JUSTCALLMEPETE 9/2 will get a clear run being stuck between some fast starters but does have a competent jockey on board and if getting a clear run could run well and is my top rated using just course and distance ratings, my top rated using Tapeta ratings from elsewhere is EMBOUR 25/1 and can hopefully from stall 12 follow the pacesetters over towards the rails and gain a good position from which to attack late on and at the price i will be having an each way punt on it.

Justcallmepete 9/2 1st +4.5pts
Embour 50/1 Unp -1pt 

Lay bets Shalaa Asker +1pt, Westmorian +1pt 

Total +5.5pts

Total on the day +5.5pts 

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