3:20 Southwell Racing Tips (15th Jauary)

SOUTHWELL 3.20 

THE GREEN MAN has made the frame in both of its AW runs but not over this distance and would need to improve on its best rating on turf to win this race. 

EMBOUR can be held up or track the leaders and is my top rated and in the make-up of this race stall 12 might not be too much of a problem. 

WYVERN is usually held up for a late run but would need to improve time wise to win this race and is poorly drawn in stall 13 for its racing style. 

THE THIN BLUE LINE another one that is usually held up at the back of the field and then delivered late but would need to improve a little time wise but could go well. 

WESTMORIAN this one won at Newcastle but that was a slow run affair and might find things happening too fast for it in this race. 

STRAITS OF MOYLE another horse that likes to be held up at the back of the field before running on at the finish, hasn't run here before needs to improve on its best Newcastle rating. 

ASADJUMEIRAH usually likes to race in midfield but hasn't run here before and would need to improve on its best Tapeta rating from Newcastle. 

MINESBIGGERTHANURS hasn't any form on this course and may need a longer distance before it can produce its best ratings. 

INTERVENTION is one of 3 in this race that have been known to lead before and in stall 4 has the lowest draw of the pacesetters so could possibly make the frame. 

JUSTCALLEPETE this one usually likes to track the leaders before staying on the stronger in the closing stages and is my top rated on just course and distance ratings. 

MOTAWAAZY a possible pacesetter from stall 8 but this trip can prove too far for it if the early pace is fast so this race might not be run to suit it. AIRSHOW the 3rd and final front running type in this race and coming out of stall 11 but time wise it would need to improve to win this race so not for me here. 

SHALAA ASKER is another one that struggles to stay the distance if the early gallop is a fast one so might struggle in this race. 

SUMMARY: I would look to lay Shalaa Asker 9/1, Motawaazy 8/1 and Westmorian 4/1 if they are of value to do so, i am a little worried whether JUSTCALLMEPETE 9/2 will get a clear run being stuck between some fast starters but does have a competent jockey on board and if getting a clear run could run well and is my top rated using just course and distance ratings, my top rated using Tapeta ratings from elsewhere is EMBOUR 25/1 and can hopefully from stall 12 follow the pacesetters over towards the rails and gain a good position from which to attack late on and at the price i will be having an each way punt on it.

Justcallmepete 9/2 1st +4.5pts

Embour 50/1 Unp -1pt 

Lay bets Shalaa Asker +1pt, Westmorian +1pt 

Total +5.5pts

Total on the day +5.5pts 

2:33 Southwell Racing Tips (15th December)

SOUTHWELL 2.33 

A class 6 race with 13 runners of which 4 are what I would class as natural front running sorts who either like to lead or contest the lead from the off. The Tron 5/1, Dapper Man 9/1 and Lucky Beggar 14/1 are all better prospects when racing over further and would be lays if of value to do so. The 4 at the bottom of the handicap haven't been in form lately but I expect they will be double figure prices but if not then I would lay them as well. Thrilla In Manila or Captain Carcoran could be the ones to set the early pace while Amasova and Another Angel will try to get somewhere near the front. My money will be riding on BRANDY STATION 10/1 who I tipped up when it won 2 runs ago at 25/1, its last run on soft ground on turf is best ignored and has been found a decent opportunity to follow up that course and distance win and both the trainer and jockey have good stats here since they changed the surface 12 months ago. 

Brandy Station 12/1 3rd -1pt 

Lay bets: The Tron +1pt

Total 0pts 

SOUTHWELL 4.35 

A class 4 race and only 6 horses run, I backed the front running Total Commitment when it finished 2nd last time out at Lingfield but time wise it needs to improve on this surface so I doubt it can hold on for the win but it could run a good race if allowed an easy lead, Blind Beggar hasn't any form in England so not sure what to expect as its 1 run on the Polytrack surface in Ireland didn't show much but didn't seem to stay the distance and its best form has been on soft going on turf, Motagally hasn't been in poor form lately but will be the outsider in the field, Bellagio Man and Aberama Gold are my joint top rated using times from Newcastle or Wolverhampton but the former is 2nd top rated on just course and distance ratings but EMBOUR 13/2 is my top rated on both sets of figures and will be carrying my money. 

Embour 11/1 5th -1pt

Total -1pt

SOUTHWELL 5.05 

This is a strange race where my final analysis isn't watertight, I can see only one known front running type, I'm not sure I could lay anything in this race with any confidence so I won't be going down that road as this race wont take much winning. Dark Shot comes out in 2nd top spot using Tapeta ratings from elsewhere and on course and distance ratings so ought to run well and could be an each way punt, my top rated using just course and distance times is COAXING 10/1 who likes to track the leaders and then stay on nearing the finish and might even prefer a longer distance but has poor trainer, 0-11, stats and poor jockey, 0-6, stats which is off putting plus its been 69 days since the stable last had a winner, POLITICS 7/4 is the one that could set the pace to the race and is my top rated using Tapeta ratings from elsewhere, Wolverhampton or Newcastle but its had 3 runs over this course and distance and time-wise is well below my rating for Coaxing and its still a maiden after 8 races on artificial surfaces, so it looks like either 2 small bets or leave the race alone. If the early tissue are to be believed then Politics will be the fairly hot favourite and would represent poor value in such an open race which would make Coaxing the value call for the race as usual the betting will decide which road I take.

Politics 7/4 1st +1.75pts

Coaxing 14/1 5th -1pt 

Total +0.75pts

Total on the day -0.25pts 

2:20 Haydock Racing Tips (3rd September)

HAYDOCK 2.20 

A 7 runner race with no known front runners which is always a pain, I will look to lay Be Proud 5/1 who may need further to show its best and this race might not be run at a fast early gallop which wont help its cause, another possible lay is Manigordo 5/1 as I think it might be slightly outclassed in this race and the stable has another runner GOLDEN APOLLO 4/1 in the race who has a better chance of winning this race and will be staying on strongly at the business end of the race, my top rated horse is EMBOUR 5/1 so has to considered as a possible winner and if it wasn't for the trainers poor 0-46 record at this course it would most likely have been my only bet in the race. 

Embour 6/1 5th -1pt 

Golden Apollo 6/1 6th -1pt 

Lay bets Be Proud +1pt, Manigordo +1pt

Total 0pts     

HAYDOCK 2.55 

I can see 2 horses in this race that like to front run in the top weight who might not be good enough to hold on for the win even if it does get to the front and MACHREE 8/1 who could be very hard to catch if it does get to the front but it isn't my top rated so I will also be backing SOUND OF IONA 11/2 who is usually held up for a late run and this race could be run to suit its best racing tactic, I will look to lay Global Humor 5/1 who has done all of its winning over longer distances and may stay on too late to win this race. 

Sound Of Iona 7/1 +7pts 

Machree 14/1 8th -1pt 

Lay bet Global Humour +1pt 

Total +7pts

ASCOT 4.10 

A nice looking 8 runner class 4 race with 2 horses Equinao Springs and the top weight Aljari being known as a front running types but I doubt the latter can hold on for the win and its best speed figures have come from AW races but would still need to improve on those speed figures to win this race while the former comes out 3rd best on my figures so could do enough to make the frame, Louie de Palma is my 2nd top rated using a 2020 time at Windsor which seems to be a favoured course for it as its best this year was also recorded there, top rated is SPIRITED GUEST 7/1 who usually likes to track the leaders before staying on the strongest at the finish. 

Spirited Guest 11/1 5th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

PONTEFRACT 7.00 

Unlucky for some is this 13 runner race but luckily there is 3 known front running types in this race, I'm not sure price wise if there's anything worth laying but the betting will guide me more on the day, Singe Anglais has been in decent form lately but the trainers 1-42 win ratio at this course is off-putting it could possibly make the frame being my 2nd top rated but maybe its got a future target in mind, Mr Orange could go well if able to reproduce its best 2020 speed figure as could the 3yo Royal Advice, MOTAWAAZY 5/1 who is in real good form lately could set the pace here and comes out in 3rd top spot just 1lb from being my 2nd top rated and if getting to the front could be hard to catch and it does have good jockey stats, my top rated horse DENY KNOWLEDGE 11/2 is a versatile type when it comes to racing tactics and that includes leading but it could be held up here for a late run while it also has good jockey stats so I will back them both to cover the angles of a front runner and a finishing type. 

Motawaazy 5/1 1st +5pts + EX £15.60

Deny Knowledge 11/2 2nd -1pt 

Total +4pts

PONTEFRACT 7.30 

For a class 3 race this is a very tricky looking race where I cannot find anything to lay and also cannot narrow it down to less than 2 horses, Victory Angel is my 2nd top rated on just 2021 times and 3rd best of overall figures so could make the frame, KING OF STARS 10/3 is the one i expect to set the pace to this race and is my top rated on just 2021 speed figures which is good enough for 2nd top spot on my overall figures so has to be respected while INDIAN SOUNDS 15/2 has been a bit below its best so far this year but if reproducing its best time from 2020 at Bath it becomes my top rated so also has to be respected and once again i am going with 2 bets to cover the angles.

King Of Stars 10/3 1st +3.33pts +EX £10.30

Indian Sounds 15/2 2nd -1pt 

Total +2.33pts 

Total on the day  +12.33pts

2:00 Doncaster Racing Tips & Lay Bets (14th June)

DONCASTER 2.00 

Let me start with 3 horses that I will be laying (Lahore + Stake Acclaim + Teruntum Star) Caspian Prince looks the most likely pacesetter in this race and on its best 2018 time that would be enough to see it at least make the frame and could feasibly lead all the way here and maybe worth an each-way interest, the bottom pair Cowboy Soldier and Orvar are capable of recording fast times but would need to improve to win this race if others run to their best, Camacho Chief has decent time from Leicester but this one doesn't seem to want really fast ground, my money will be riding on EMBOUR 6/1 who has its best time from Ascot last year that makes it my top-rated and the jockey booking looks a positive move as he has a 21% win rate on this stables older horses. 

Embour 6/1 4th (-1p)

Lay bets: Lahore -10pts, Stake Acclaim +1pt, Teruntum Star +1pt

Total: -9pts

GOODWOOD 2.20 

Of the 9 runners I will look to lay 2 of them, Corinthia Knight + Puds) I could have put Mrs Bouquet in the lay list but it has good trainer/jockey stats so maybe we haven't seen the best of this horse in its previous races but to me, it looks a better horse at a shorter distance, I can only find one natural frontrunner in the race and if BUNGEE JUMP 10/1 does get to the front it ought to prove very hard to catch as it is my top rated so I'm hoping it can lead from start to finish and this jockey has very good stats for this trainer.  

Bungee Jump 10/1 2nd (-1pt)

Lay bets: Corinthia Knight +1pt, Pud +1pt

Total: +1pt

DONCASTER 2.35 

Only 7 runners for this Listed class race, which I find strange to have so few entrants, I can only find one horse to lay (*Rocket Action) I'm not sure what to expect from Lady In France but I don't think this wants it any faster than good going, if Final Venture can repeat its best 2018 time it would be winning this race but its best from 2019 was way below that level but never say never, Copper Knight is the only known frontrunner in the field and could be dangerous if allowed an easy lead but I will be putting my trust and my money on DAKOTA GOLD 2/1 who usually finishes strongly at the business end of a race and will have a good target to aim at. 

*NR 

Dakota 2/1 5th (-1pt)

Total: -1pt

NEWMARKET 2.45

I'm hoping the rain stays away and the going is at least good, please check before having a bet using my figures, I will look to lay (Prophecy + Native Silver + Sandridge Lad) there's a couple of horses that can lead if needs be but they might not need to today as the bottom weight Pavers Pride is a more natural frontrunner and its best time from 2018 would be good enough to win this race but it has never won at this distance so I'm beginning to think that time might have been a one-off, still though I'm not sure what to expect, others that may go well are Camachess, Englishman and Herringswell but I will be backing VICTORY ROSE 16/1 (EW) who should get a good tow into the race being drawn alongside a fast starter and at the price has to be given as an each-way bet.

Victory Rose 16/1 8th (-2pts)

Lay bets: Prophecy +1pt, Native Silver +1pt, Sandridge Lad +1pt

Total: +1pt

Total on the day: - 8pts