A field of 8 for this class 5 dash where 5 of the runners have been known to lead before so it should be fast and furious for this class of race. Frisky 8/1 only produced a very low rating on its only run on an artificial surface and would need to improve a couple of pounds on its best turf rating to win this race and might need this run for fitness after 4 months off. Motawaazy 7/2 might prefer a longer distance so could get outpaced early in the race before staying on at the finish, Ooh Is It is 2nd best using Southwell times but drops to 4th using course and distance ratings. Ornate is 3rd best on Southwell ratings and joint top rated on course and distance rating but has the worst of the draw in stall 8 which could be its downfall in this race so I will be backing the other joint top rated in the shape of KIM WEXLER 3/1 who is another fast starter and if getting to the front should prove too hard to catch as its also my top rated using Southwell ratings.
Kim Wexller 4/1 2nd -1pt
Total -1pt
CHELMSFORD 5.30
Another race with 8 runners also another class 5 race but this one if for apprentice jockeys where they can carry their whips but are not allowed to use them, so its not just a case of analysing the race its also trying to work out if they can win without being urged by the jockeys whip (I will admit here that I haven't got a clue) the 2 known front running sorts, Magical Max and Winnetka, will both have to improve time wise to win this race, but I have a feeling that other jockeys will be given similar instructions to either lead or at least get a good prominent position so it could be a free for all in the early stages. I don't think Porfin 11/4 really stays the distance if there's a fast early pace so might be worth opposing here especially if its the favourite, Show Me A Sunset 15/2 might also struggle to stay with a fast early pace. My money will be riding on LILKIAN 7/1 as it usually races in midfield so wont be as keen as others to get a good prominent early position and from stall 8 it could slot in anywhere but my stake will be kept low because of the no whips rule.
Lilkian 10/1 4th -1pt
Total -1pt
CHELMSFORD 6.30
Typically there's a full house for this lowly class 6 stakes sprint where the highest rated horse on the official handicappers list is rated 50. The early pace could be set by Viewfromthestars 8/1 but it would need to improve a few spots to hold on even to make the frame, Tahonta 7/2 may need further as might Privilege, while Maybe Tonight 15/2 looks better over a shorter distance so I would look to lay one or more if they are single figure prices. Company Minx is my 5th top rated but there is only 4lbs between 5th and 2nd top rated, Jumira Bridge is my 4th top rated with Iesha and Delegate The Lady in joint 2nd top spot. My money will be riding on SHAMSHON 7/1 who started out as joint top rated but its apprentices 5lb claim moves it top spot and it has decent trainer/jockey stats with the stables older horses.
Shamshon 17/2 3rd -1pt
Lay bets Viewfromthestars +1pt, Maybe Tonight +1pt, Tahonta +1pt
Total +2pts
Total on the day 0pts
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