Class 6 dash with 9 runners and 3 known front running types where I'm not sure if I could lay anything, Ornate is my top rated but has been woefully out of form in recent runs its also capable of springing back to form without warning but is so unreliable I couldn't back or lay this one, the other 2 possible pacesetters are Ooh Is It and is another I couldn't back or lay while Autumn Flight recorded a fast time when getting towed along in a race this year at Lingfield but has never run here before but if taking to the course could go well, being my 3rd top rated horse but did lead last time before fading nearing the finish but it think they could all be setting the race up for MICK'S SPIRIT 5/2 who usually likes to track the leaders before staying on the stronger nearing the finish and from stall 2 should be able to attain a good position on the rails just behind the leaders ready to pounce, the trainer has a 20% strike rate here with their older horses and the apprentice jockey has 16% win ratio on the stables older horses.
Mick's Spirit 5/2 4th -1pt
Total -1pt
SOUTHWELL 5.00
A class 5 dash with 8 runners and again there's 3 known front running types, Idoapologise hasn't won over this distance before as it seems too short for it and could be worth laying if of value to do so, Gannon Glory is held by the top weight on recent form and Murbih who is my 2nd top rated on just course and distance times both like to front run so it should be a true run affair. If KIM WEXLER 11/4 gets to the front it could prove hard to catch and is my top rated on Tapeta ratings from elsewhere and is in 3rd top spot on course and distance ratings but there is very little between my top 3 at this course but i cannot leave out my actual top rated horse here and that's SO GRATEFUL 5/1 who usually likes to track the leaders, so I will be covering the angles and backing both of them.
Kim Wexler 9/2 1st 4.5pts
So Grateful 5/1 7th -1pt
Lay bet Idoapolobte +1
Total +4.5pts
SOUTHWELL 5.30
A field of 11 for this class 6 dash and for the 3rd sprint in a row I can see 3 known front running types in the race and I think this race should be won from the front, if The Tron is of value I would look to lay it as its seems to prefer a longer distance, Munificent won last time out about a month ago at Wolverhampton and is my joint top rated using that rating, it has never run here before but if taking to the track it could prove dangerous but would need a trouble free run to catch Mehmo who is my other joint top rated on Tapeta times from elsewhere and its one of the likely leaders but its only previous run here resulted in a slow time and if that's the best it can achieve here then it could struggle, BERNARD SPEIRPOINT 4/1 is another possible front runner and is my top rated on just course and distance ratings and by a good few spots.
Bernard Speirpoint 9/2 9th -1pt
Lay bets The Tron +1pt
0pts
SOUTHWELL 8.30
A class 6 sprint with 13 runners no known front running types which always causes problems when trying to analyse a race and automatically means any bets will be for small stakes, the 10yo Muatadel seems to be slowing with age and the other old timer Dapper Man may prefer a shorter distance, Fylingdale 7/2, Tathmeen 9/1, Bluebird 4/1 and Camachess 14/1 are at the top of my ratings with the first two’s ratings coming on Tapeta but from elsewhere while the other 2 are top rated on just course and distance runs and only Lyingdale has a rating from both sources but its course and distance rating is the lower rating, maybe I could dutch all 4 of them or maybe I should leave the race alone, the deciding factor will be the betting and I might then be able to find a final conclusion to the race.
Total on the day +3.5pts
