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Thursday 9 February 2023

1:40 Southwell Racing Tips (10th February)


This 12 runner class 6 dash is very tight on my ratings with just 2lbs between my top 5 ratings and there's 4 known front running types amongst the dozen runners, I don't think Autumn Flight is at good on this Tapeta surface so i will look to lay it in this race. The Tron is my top rated but the apprentice is 0-5 which moves it down to 4th top spot, Yaahobby is my 2nd top rated but the trainer is 0-12 in the last 2 weeks and the jockey has a poorish 9% win ratio for the stable, Wee Fat Mac is my joint 4th top rated but that's using a Wolverhampton speed figure but hasn't any course and distance form to work with so not sure what to expect. Tantastic hasn't been in good form lately so maybe not ready to win this race, I will be putting my faith in MEHMO 9/2 hoping that it can lead all the way.

Mehmo 17/2 6th -1pt 

Total -1pt 


Fourteen runners for this class 6 stakes race where they all carry the same weight with the official rating of the top rated is 48 so a poor race but hey ho something has to win but it is hard to work out exactly what. There's 3 known front running types in the race and they are all in my top 4 ratings so a lot of these wont be able to get involved, Stroxx 7/2 is actually my top rated but this one is still a maiden after 21 races and 15 of them have been on an artificial surface and this one could do best of those coming from off the pace but could I back this maiden with any confidence? The answer has to be no. I think the winner will come from the 4 top rated horses, Rockley Point 11/1 and Another Angel 8/1 both have poor jockey stats which is slightly off-putting, I think I really ought to dutch all 4 horses and I will back the 3 mentioned so far for small stakes just in case they do win but I will probably back EMBLA 7/1 as my main bet mainly because the jockey has only had 2 previous rides for the stable and finished 3rd and 1st in those 2 rides so hopefully that points to connections expecting it to win here.

Embla 7/1 7th -1pt 

Total -1pt  


A full house of 14 for this class 5 sprint where I can see 4 front running types and Rebel Redemption 28/1 is my highest rated of them in 5th top spot on my figures so would need others to falter to win this race but could possibly make the frame and if of value to do so maybe worth a small each way interest, its not a race where I can see anything worthwhile to lay, Mostallim 14/1 and Papa Cocktail 10/1 are my joint 3rd top rated horses where the former likes to track the leaders but always races as though further would suit it better while the latter is usually held up for a late run. I've got Palifico as my 2nd top rated but this one has never won over this distance so may have been flattered when recording its best distance rating, top rated is PORFIN 12/1 (EW) who is a hold up type and i have to admit stall 14 isn't the ideal draw but if it can follow Rebel Redemption in stall 10 across to the rails it might be able to get a good early position from which to attack nearing the finish and if an each way price then all the better.

Porfin 12/1 8th -2pts 

Total -2pts 

Total on the day -4pts

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