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Tuesday 7 March 2023

5:35 Kempton Racing Tips (8th March)


LILKIAN 7/2 has only slow times over this course and distance but has a fast time from Lingfield so maybe this course doesn't suit it and might be worth laying. 

AIRSHOW 20/1 hasn't been in great form recently but could be the one to set the pace to this race which is lower class than most of its recent exploits. 

DARK SIDE THUNDER 13/2 has a relatively slow time over this course and distance and seems to do much better on the Tapeta surface so maybe another one to lay. 

CONCIERGE 20/1 has only slow recent times to its name and hasn't been in good form and races as though further would suit it better but i expect it will be an outsider in this race. 

STARSONG 4/1 is just outside my top 4 on its best course and distance rating but seems better on the Tapeta surface and might be another one to lay. 

PORFIN 8/1 is my 3rd top rated in this race but hasn't been in great form in its latest races and can be held up or track the leaders so could possibly make the frame. 

SWEET MIST 14/1 has never won over this distance and hasn't shown much form wise or timewise but i expect it will be an outsider in this race. 

SHOW ME A SUNSET 16/1 has only slow times over this course and distance and its best times from Chelmsford are not good enough to win this race but i expect another outsider. 

CALINS LAD 9/2 has decent times from the Tapeta surface but on this Polytrack surface it seems to find the distance a bit too short for it to show its best. 

LION RING 7/1 is still a maiden after having 28 races but does have a fast time recorded at Chelmsford but not sure if it was a fluke time or not. 

SUMMARY: As I'm not sure that Lilkian 7/2, who is the likely favourite to win this race, likes this course although it is top rated using a Lingfield rating, I might look to lay it as I think it will be a shorter price than its course form merits, Calins Lad 9/2, Starsong 4/1 and Dark Side Thunder 13/2 seem to prefer the Tapeta surface so may also be worth laying also the former might be better over further. I will be taking a punt it this race and side with AIRSHOW 20/1 (EW) who has been known to lead and is the only known front running type in this race so stall 10 might not be too much of a hindrance and this is an easier race than it contested most of last year and I'm hoping an each way wager might pay dividends.

Airshow 20/1 6th -2pt 

Lay bets: Dark Side Thunder -6pts, Lilkian +1pt, Calin's Lad +1pt, Starsong +1pt

Total -5pts 

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