5:35 Kempton Racing Tips (8th March)

KEMPTON 5.35 

LILKIAN 7/2 has only slow times over this course and distance but has a fast time from Lingfield so maybe this course doesn't suit it and might be worth laying. 

AIRSHOW 20/1 hasn't been in great form recently but could be the one to set the pace to this race which is lower class than most of its recent exploits. 

DARK SIDE THUNDER 13/2 has a relatively slow time over this course and distance and seems to do much better on the Tapeta surface so maybe another one to lay. 

CONCIERGE 20/1 has only slow recent times to its name and hasn't been in good form and races as though further would suit it better but i expect it will be an outsider in this race. 

STARSONG 4/1 is just outside my top 4 on its best course and distance rating but seems better on the Tapeta surface and might be another one to lay. 

PORFIN 8/1 is my 3rd top rated in this race but hasn't been in great form in its latest races and can be held up or track the leaders so could possibly make the frame. 

SWEET MIST 14/1 has never won over this distance and hasn't shown much form wise or timewise but i expect it will be an outsider in this race. 

SHOW ME A SUNSET 16/1 has only slow times over this course and distance and its best times from Chelmsford are not good enough to win this race but i expect another outsider. 

CALINS LAD 9/2 has decent times from the Tapeta surface but on this Polytrack surface it seems to find the distance a bit too short for it to show its best. 

LION RING 7/1 is still a maiden after having 28 races but does have a fast time recorded at Chelmsford but not sure if it was a fluke time or not. 

SUMMARY: As I'm not sure that Lilkian 7/2, who is the likely favourite to win this race, likes this course although it is top rated using a Lingfield rating, I might look to lay it as I think it will be a shorter price than its course form merits, Calins Lad 9/2, Starsong 4/1 and Dark Side Thunder 13/2 seem to prefer the Tapeta surface so may also be worth laying also the former might be better over further. I will be taking a punt it this race and side with AIRSHOW 20/1 (EW) who has been known to lead and is the only known front running type in this race so stall 10 might not be too much of a hindrance and this is an easier race than it contested most of last year and I'm hoping an each way wager might pay dividends.

Airshow 20/1 6th -2pt 

Lay bets: Dark Side Thunder -6pts, Lilkian +1pt, Calin's Lad +1pt, Starsong +1pt

Total -5pts 

1:21 Bath Racing Tips (2nd May)

BATH 1.21 

With 3 possible pacesetters in this race it should be a true run race and I think it could well be won from the front, I will look to lay Hot Hot Hot 9/2 who seems to need further to show its true potential and the jockey is a poor 1-37 for the stable which is certainly off-putting, it looks likely that Symbol Of Hope 2/1 will be the favourite and I gave it as a lay last time it ran where it finished 2nd and I will be laying it again here if I think its not value, Sir Rodneyredblood could be the one to do best of those coming from off the pace but I will be hoping that *CORONATION COTTAGE 8/1 can lead all the way in this race and the apprentice jockey has good stats and the horse has won before when returning after a break. 

*NR 

Lay bet Symbol Of Hope -1.25pts

Total -1.25pts 

BATH 2.31 

A poor turnout of just 6 runners for this class 4 dash over 5 furlongs, I'm not sure there is anything in this race that I could confidently lay although Newyorkstateofmind would have to improve time wise a good few spots to be winning the race, Get It and Hallowed Time look the ones likely to set the pace to this race and the latter could be dangerous if allowed an easy lead as its my 2nd top rated but my money will be hoping they will be setting the race up for AIRSHOW 9/4 who usually tracks the leaders and then stays on strongly at the finish and its trainer has a 20% win ratio with its older horses at this course. 

Airshow 5/2 2nd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

WINDSOR 3.26 

Not really a race to be betting in too heavily as I'm not sure what will set the pace to the race or how fast the gallop will be which means its hard to spot lays as well as bets, I can see some that might not have the race run to suit them but they are all forecast to be double figure prices but the proper betting might show me something to lay, as for backing in this race I cannot see why MAJESKI MAN 11/4 who won last time out shouldn't follow up here as that time at Salisbury last time out would see it winning this race with a bit still in hand, as this horse likes to track the leaders it should be able to spot if the leaders are not going fast and push on if needs be and I think Holly Doyle is more than capable of riding a good race from the front.

Majeski Man 9/4 3rd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -3.25pts

4:35 Southwell Racing Tips (1st April)

SOUTHWELL 4.35 

There is a few I could lay in this race if they are of value to lay, Militia 15/2 may need the run for fitness, Fine Wine 4/1 might be better on the Polytrack surface and Media Guest who might need further to show its best, half of the 10 runners have led before so it should be a true run race, one who might lead is who Rolfe Rembrandt 11/4 won last time out at Newcastle where the surface was riding slow so could be anything and could improve for the win but doesn't represent value, Thegreatestshowman 16/1 would have a chance using its best rating from Wolverhampton last year but the stable hasn't had a winner for 27 days, I will be having a bet on AIRSHOW 6/1 who hasn't any form to work with from Newcastle and Wolverhampton but does have the highest rating over this course and distance since they laid the new Tapeta surface. 

Airshow 6/1 4th -1pt 

Lay bets Fine Wine -5.5pts, Media Guest +1pt 

Total -5.5pts 

SOUTHWELL 5.05 

A lack of known front running types might not matter too much in the make-up of this race,I will look to lay Louis Treize 6/1 who might prefer a longer distance but does have good trainer/jockey stats but could be worth a small lay bet and the same applies to Twentysharesofgrey 5/1, using just recent course and distance ratings then Knockabout Queen 33/1 would come out in top spot but its best rating from Wolverhampton is a good few spots below DRISH HERO 4/1 who won last time out leading all the way at Wolverhampton has been found an ideal opportunity to follow up here as a repeat of that rating would see it winning this race comfortably. 

Drish Hero 4/1 Unp -1pt 

Lay bets Louis Treize +1pt, Twentyshadesofgrey +1pt 

Total +1pt  

SOUTHWELL 7.10 

A competitive looking class 3 race with a full house of 14 runners with 4 known front running types amongst them, I will look to lay the top weighted Mighty Gurkha if its a single figure price as its been out of form recently and the trainer is 0-11 in the last 2 weeks and the jockeys record for the stable is 1-29 which doesn't inspire confidence in its chances of winning despite it being a possible pacesetter but Global Warning, Politics and Ben Mcdull could all go well from the front and any of them could make the frame, Muscika comes out in joint top spot but the stables been 0-10 in the last 2 weeks and its been 13 runners and 47 days since the stable last tasted success, so my money will be riding on the other joint top rated SHALLOW HAL 7/1 who is also my top rated on just recent course and distance speed figures and it also has good trainer/jockey stats. 

Shallow Hal 7/1 3rd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

SOUTHWELL 8.10 

I will look to lay Billy Dylan 8/1 who can record a decent rating but usually when getting a good tow in a fast run race but its still not won on any of the AW tracks in 20 previous attempts and the trainer is 0-27 at this course and the jockey is 0-8 which doesn't bode well for its chances of success, another one to lay is Ustath 7/2 who runs ok on either slow ground or in slow run races and I doubt it can win this race, its been 21 runners and 34 days since the trainer of Ustath had a winner, I can add High Security 10/1 to the lay list as it might need this run for fitness and has poor trainer 1-26 and jockey 1-66 stats but as usual that's if they are single figures near the off, Brandy Station 10/1 comes out in top spot for just recent c/d speed figures so could go well and might be worth a small each way interest but is a good few spots below BLACKCURRENT 8/1 who comes out in top spot using a Newcastle rating recorded last year and the apprentice jockeys allowance could help its cause further.

Blackcurrent 8/1 3rd -1pt 

Lay bet Ustath +1pt 

Total 0pts 

Total on the day -5.5pts 

3:12 Southwell Racing Tips (24th February)

SOUTHWELL 3.12 

Only 7 runners so maybe no each way bets, I will look to lay Broken Spear 8/1 who may need further and this surface might not suit it, Patsy Fagan comes out 2nd top rated but that was recorded in lower class races so might not be able to repeat those ratings in this class of race but I'm not sure I could lay it, Global Warning 5/1 may set the pace to the race and being my 3rd top rated it could take some catching but I do have SHALLOW HAL 5/1 rated higher and this one usually likes to track the leaders and then stay on the stronger at the finish.

Shallow Hal 5/1 2nd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

SOUTHWELL 3.47 

There's 9 runners this time, I could look to lay Hey Mr 6/1 if its a single figure price as this isn't its favoured surface and Corinthia Knight who hasn't been in form lately and its last AW win was back in 2018, Mulzim 28/1 might be overpriced if the tissue prices are to be believed and could possibly make the frame, AIRSHOW 7/1 might have been my sole bet in this race as its my top rated using recent c/d ratings here but the trainers 1-27 win ratio at this course is a little bit off putting plus its been 9 runners and over a month since they last had a winner, NIGHT ON EARTH 4/1 comes out top rated using Tapeta times either at Newcastle or Wolverhampton and this one usually runs on well in the closing stages of the race. 

Airshow 7/1 2nd -1pt 

Night On Earth 7/1 5th -1pt 

Total -2pts

SOUTHWELL 4.22 

A class 6 stakes race where Papa's Girl 3/1 should win being the top rated on the official handicappers ratings but is only 4th top rated on recent c/d speed figures so maybe not of value to back, I was going to look to lay Arzaak 5/1 who seems better on the Polytrack but with no known front runners in this race that might not matter too much but Gleaming Maize 8/1 may prefer further and this race might not be run to suit it so maybe worth laying if a single figure price, my money will be riding on BLUELLA 16/1 who usually stays on at the business end of a race and does look to be running into form and the stable is in good form at the present. 

Bluella 16/1 7th -1pt 

Lay bets Arzaak +1pt

Total 0pts 

NEWCASTLE 6.30 

A poor turnout of just 5 runners for this race where Alablaq might set the early pace and could be dangerous if allowed an easy lead as a longer trip might suit it better and is dropped in class to run at this level, I will look to lay Gowanlad 9/4 who might prefer a longer distance and this race might not be run to suit it plus its got poorish trainer stats with an 8% win ratio while the jockey is 2-31 and 0-18 on the stables older horses, my money will be riding on TATHMEEN 3/1 who usually tracks the leaders and then stays on strongly at the finish. 

Tathmeen 3/1 3rd -1pt 

Lay bet Gowanlad -2pts

Total -3pts

NEWCASTLE 8.00 

The pacesetter in this race is likely to e Joshua R and it could be dangerous if allowed to dominate and set its own slower early pace, Elzaal 15/2 comes out top rated but may need this run for fitness after a 136 days break, Amazing Amaya 9/2 could go well and make the frame but would need to improve a little time wise to win this race if others reproduce their previous best, I will be looking to back the top weight TANASOQ 7/1 who is a previous course and distance winner and the jockey has a 27% win ratio when riding for this stable, it should be staying on strongly in the closing stages of the race

Tanasoq 7/1 3rd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -7pts