Latest News -

 Group Horse - Subscribe for our 10 Dark Horses 

Wednesday 8 March 2023

1:15 Southwell Racing Tips (9th March)


A full complement of 14 runners in this 5 furlong dash where half the field are known as front running types and they could well cut each others throats in the battle for the lead and setting the race up for something coming from off the pace. I'm not sure I can find anything of value to put forward as a lay, 6th top rated Bert Kibbler, joint 4th top rated Level Up, 3rd top rated Angle Land and 2nd top rated Jeans Maite are all ones that like to set the pace and any would be dangerous if allowed an easy lead but I cannot see that happening here, Man On A Mission is my other joint 4th top rated and usually likes to track the leaders before staying on at the finish but my top rated is GOLDEN RAINBOW 11/1 who can be held up or track the leaders and then runs on strongly nearing the winning line, its record on an artificial surface is 2 wins and 3 placed efforts from just 7 races but none of them have been at this course but was recorded over the straight 5 furlongs at Newcastle and a repeat of that rating would see it winning a shade cosily and a pointer that makes me think its prepared for this run after a break is the jockey booking as they have a 19% win ratio when riding on the stables older horses. 

Golden Rainbow 11/1 5th -1pt 

Total -1pt 


A class 5 sprint with 2 possible pacesetters in the shape of Thaki, who will need to improve a bit time wise but is the more natural front running type, and Tathmeen 6/1 who is my 2nd top rated using a Southwell rating but has never won in this class of race, so it could go well but I doubt can win the race but never say never. Macho Pride 10/1 is just outside my top 4 ratings and can struggle to stay the distance in a fast run race, I will look to lay Prospect 10/1 if its a single figure price near the off as it might be better suited to a longer distance race and might need this run for fitness after a break. Shabaaby has a rating from 2020 which would put it in 3rd top spot but that rating is now looking like a fluke time recorded when getting towed along in a fast run race. My top rated horse is CHURCHILL BOY 40/1 (EW) but this one is still a maiden after 13 runs and the jockey is 0-11 for the stable although it is dropped in class compared to a lot of its previous races so with the negatives I cannot back it on its own but might be worth an each way interest and at the price I cannot let it run without having a bet on it, ONE MORE DREAM 5/1 is only 4th best on my figures but with negatives against the 3 above it in the ratings it could be the one to prosper if their failings come into play, it usually likes to track the leaders and has good trainer/jockey stats.

One More Dream 5/1 1st +5pts 
Churchill Boy 80/1 3rd +15pts

Total +20pts

Total on the day +19pts

No comments: