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Friday 23 June 2023

1:50 Ayr Racing Tips (24th June)

AYR 1.50 

5F Class 4 8 Runners I can see 3 horses that like to front run in this dash so I'm expecting a fast early pace, I will look to lay Sir Titus 7/2 in this race as I don't think the fast ground really suits it. Sound Reason is my 3rd top rated and one of the front running types in this race so could go well from the front, if the early pace is too fast and they fade nearing the finish the one that could capitalise is Be Proud who is rated 1lb higher than the 3rd top rated but if RESILIENCE 33/1 (EW) gets the fractions right from the front it could win this race a shade cosily but it hasn't been in the best of form so far this year but if back to its best this race is there for the taking and at such a generous price it has to be done as an each way punt.

Resilience 33/1 5th -2pts 

Lay bey Sir Titus -4pts

Total -6pts


6F Class 4 8 Runners I will look to lay Ernies Valentine 4/1 if of value to do so as it looks to need further on fast ground to show its best but if good or slower ground then it would have every chance, I doubt anything else will be of value to lay. The Green Man 5/4 is going for its hattrick in this race and does come out in joint 2nd top spot on my figures and its best was recorded this year at Doncaster and I expect it will run another good race here but the handicapper might have caught up with it and carrying 10st 8lbs around here isn't easy and at the price it doesn't represent any value in my eyes, the other joint 2nd top rated being Above who is a hold up type. TEMPLE BRUER 18/1 (EW) also recorded its best rating this year at Doncaster and it was a faster time than the top weights before you take of the 13lbs in weight that its receiving here and will be carrying my money here with an each way punt at that price as I was expecting it to be much lower in price.

Temple Bruer 18/1 1st +21.6pts

Lay bet Ernie's Valentine +1pt

Total +22.6pts


5F Class 4 8 Runners The early pace may well come from Triple Jaye but I doubt this one can lead all the way and hasn't been in good form on its last few outings but only one of them was this year. The 3yo Grace Angel won a slow run affair on good ground and needs to improve time wise to win this race (that's assuming others run to their best) the other 3yo Sera Dawn has avoided good to firm ground up till now which makes me think it might not suit it but being 3yo’s I'm not sure if I dare lay them. Haveagomecca would have every chance here if able to reproduce its best rating from 2021 but its best since then has been well below that level. Angle Land is forecast to be the favourite here but if the going is fast good to firm ground then it might not be able to run to its best so I will be backing LIL GUFF 11/4 who recorded its rating this year at Windsor and can be held up for a late run or track the leaders and then stay on resolutely nearing the finish.

Lil Guff 10/3 2nd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day +15.6pts

1 comment:

goldenballs said...

Lovely priced winner today thank you .