1:50 Ayr Racing Tips (24th June)

AYR 1.50 

5F Class 4 8 Runners I can see 3 horses that like to front run in this dash so I'm expecting a fast early pace, I will look to lay Sir Titus 7/2 in this race as I don't think the fast ground really suits it. Sound Reason is my 3rd top rated and one of the front running types in this race so could go well from the front, if the early pace is too fast and they fade nearing the finish the one that could capitalise is Be Proud who is rated 1lb higher than the 3rd top rated but if RESILIENCE 33/1 (EW) gets the fractions right from the front it could win this race a shade cosily but it hasn't been in the best of form so far this year but if back to its best this race is there for the taking and at such a generous price it has to be done as an each way punt.

Resilience 33/1 5th -2pts 

Lay bey Sir Titus -4pts

Total -6pts

NEWMARKET 5.09 

6F Class 4 8 Runners I will look to lay Ernies Valentine 4/1 if of value to do so as it looks to need further on fast ground to show its best but if good or slower ground then it would have every chance, I doubt anything else will be of value to lay. The Green Man 5/4 is going for its hattrick in this race and does come out in joint 2nd top spot on my figures and its best was recorded this year at Doncaster and I expect it will run another good race here but the handicapper might have caught up with it and carrying 10st 8lbs around here isn't easy and at the price it doesn't represent any value in my eyes, the other joint 2nd top rated being Above who is a hold up type. TEMPLE BRUER 18/1 (EW) also recorded its best rating this year at Doncaster and it was a faster time than the top weights before you take of the 13lbs in weight that its receiving here and will be carrying my money here with an each way punt at that price as I was expecting it to be much lower in price.

Temple Bruer 18/1 1st +21.6pts

Lay bet Ernie's Valentine +1pt

Total +22.6pts

HAYDOCK 6.35 

5F Class 4 8 Runners The early pace may well come from Triple Jaye but I doubt this one can lead all the way and hasn't been in good form on its last few outings but only one of them was this year. The 3yo Grace Angel won a slow run affair on good ground and needs to improve time wise to win this race (that's assuming others run to their best) the other 3yo Sera Dawn has avoided good to firm ground up till now which makes me think it might not suit it but being 3yo’s I'm not sure if I dare lay them. Haveagomecca would have every chance here if able to reproduce its best rating from 2021 but its best since then has been well below that level. Angle Land is forecast to be the favourite here but if the going is fast good to firm ground then it might not be able to run to its best so I will be backing LIL GUFF 11/4 who recorded its rating this year at Windsor and can be held up for a late run or track the leaders and then stay on resolutely nearing the finish.

Lil Guff 10/3 2nd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day +15.6pts

1:40 Chepstow Racing Tips (19th August)

CHEPSTOW 1.40 

Not a bad looking class 6 race but there isn't any known front running types amongst them and in this race I am hoping the early pace isn't a frantic one, Our Man In Havana has good jockey stats and comes out 4th best on my figures, in 3rd top spot I've got Knockabout Queen who has average trainer/jockey stats and could make the frame, I've got joint top rated horses in WIFF WAFF 6/1 and I'M WATCHING YOU 25/1 the former is held up for a late run while the latter usually runs in midfield or tracks the leaders and I will be backing the both of them with the latter being worth an each way interest at the price. 

I'm Watching You 25/1 5th -2pts 

Wiff Waff 7/1 Unp -1pt 

Total -3pts 

CHEPSTOW 2.15 

This is a tricky looking race where I have got 5 horses that all look to have some chance of winning this race, Oh So Nice is one of the 2 known front running types in the race but only comes out 5th of them, Toptime the other possible pacesetter comes out 4th of the five with winning chances so they may set the race up for something coming from off the pace, Alba Del Sole is 3rd top rated using a 2020 time recorded at Ripon but hasn't been in as good a form so far this year, Katherine Place is my 2nd top rated and once again its using a 2020 time this time from Lingfield my top rated horse AQUADABRA 25/1 is top rated using just 2021 times and has an even faster time from 2020 that also makes it my top rated on overall speed figures and I'm hoping this one will be an each way price as a bit of insurance. 

Aquadabra 25/1 6th -2pts

Total -2pts 

WINDSOR 5.25 

I expect that Fernando Rah will set the pace to this race but time wise it only comes out in 5th top spot so may struggle to lead all the way, the bottom weight Lady Celia is capable of running a fast time but usually in lower class races than this one but could still go well, the 3yo Koolmoe Dee comes out 2nd best but that is using a time recorded at Bath in 2020 and this years best has been way below that standard, my top rated on 2021 times is HURAIZ 7/1 who recorded it over this course and distance but will have to bounce back to form from what its achieved in its recent runs and i am hoping it will be an each way price as a bit of insurance. 

Huraiz 11/2 5th -1pt 

Total -1pt

WINDSOR 5.55 

An 11 runner race with 2 known front runners, Tanfantic is one of them but would need to improve timewise to stay there till the end as its only 5th joint top rated on my figures the other frontrunner is SMEATONS LIGHT 13/2 who is my joint top rated on just 2021 times and 2nd joint top on overall times so it could be hard to catch and has decent trainer/jockey stats, TEMPLE BRUER 10/1 is the other joint 2nd top rated on overall figures and this one has even better trainer/jockey stats so it looks like both sets of connections are expecting big runs in this race but i do have EQUITATION 5/1 with a higher rating but this ones best time does come from 2020 in its defense though it hasn't any form on good or good to firm going recently so if fully fit it could win, so i will be dutching the 3 of them.

Smeaton's Light  13/2 3rd -1pt

Temple Bruer 10/1 7th -1pt 

Equitation 10/1 9th -1pt 

Total on the day -9pts