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Wednesday 2 August 2023

8:15 Newcastle Racing Tips (3rd August)

Eric has been a bit quiet due to the soft going and lack of all-weather racing. 


6F Class 6 Div I 

13-Runners A poor race with five 3yo’s who are capable of improvement without prior warning but only 3 horses that have been known to lead and 2 of them only usually do so if nothing else wants to do so and using that theory then maybe Tathmeen will take on the pacesetters job and if allowed an easy lead it could lead all the way for victory but I'm hoping it will be a double figure price to be worth an each way punt. Dandy's Derriere 12/1 won the time before last but that was a slow run race and may have been flattered by that result and will be one to lay if a single figure price, I doubt anything else will be of value to lay. I tipped up Mostallim last time out when it was backed down from 8/1 to 5/1 and changed it usually racing tactics to take on the pacesetters role and led all the way winning quite cosily at Chelmsford and with the jockeys 5lb claim its my top rated here and has won twice from 4 previous runs over this course and distance and is well drawn in stall 13 and could lead all the way again in this race. I will be backing them both but my main bet will be MOSTALLIM 5/2 and then a smaller each way punt on TATHMEEN 16/1 (EW). 

Mostallin 5/2 3rd -1pt 
Tathmeen 22/1 9th -2pts 

Total -3pts


6F Class 6 Div II

13-Runners This 2nd division has the problem of having no known front running types among them so automatically my stakes will be kept low, in fact this race may be best served by laying horses rather than backing them. Caribbean Sunset 4/1 has won over this distance but is a better horse over a shorter distance and as long as there is a strong early gallop, I'm sure something will decide to try and win from the front as what very happens in this sort of race is that the trainers know about the lack of pace so decide to change their usual tactics but more than one has the same idea, I think it may struggle to stay and I will look to have a small lay on this one, I am not sure why when looking at the early tissue prices that Mutanaaseq 10/3 is predicted to be the favourite, yes it did win last time out on turf at Catterick but that was over 7 furlongs and it seems to prefer a longer distance plus its 0-9 on the AW tracks so another I will look to lay. Struck Gold 9/1 is 0-7 on the AW tracks and its 3 runs at Wolverhampton over this distance hasn't produced anything worthwhile time wise so that's a trio of horses that could be worth laying. If I do back anything in this race then I have found a couple of horses that are predicted to be big prices and may represent value in the race and a couple of small each way punts on KRAKEN POWER 16/1 (EW) and CHURCHILL BAY 66/1 (EW) may pay dividends but it isn't a race to be betting in too heavily. 

Kracken Power 16/1 3rd +3pts
Churchill Bay 66/1 Unp -2pts 

Lay bets: Caribbean Sunset -3.3pts

Total  -2.3pts

Total on the day -5.3pts

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