8:15 Newcastle Racing Tips (3rd August)

Eric has been a bit quiet due to the soft going and lack of all-weather racing. 

NEWCASTLE 8.15 

6F Class 6 Div I 

13-Runners A poor race with five 3yo’s who are capable of improvement without prior warning but only 3 horses that have been known to lead and 2 of them only usually do so if nothing else wants to do so and using that theory then maybe Tathmeen will take on the pacesetters job and if allowed an easy lead it could lead all the way for victory but I'm hoping it will be a double figure price to be worth an each way punt. Dandy's Derriere 12/1 won the time before last but that was a slow run race and may have been flattered by that result and will be one to lay if a single figure price, I doubt anything else will be of value to lay. I tipped up Mostallim last time out when it was backed down from 8/1 to 5/1 and changed it usually racing tactics to take on the pacesetters role and led all the way winning quite cosily at Chelmsford and with the jockeys 5lb claim its my top rated here and has won twice from 4 previous runs over this course and distance and is well drawn in stall 13 and could lead all the way again in this race. I will be backing them both but my main bet will be MOSTALLIM 5/2 and then a smaller each way punt on TATHMEEN 16/1 (EW). 

Mostallin 5/2 3rd -1pt 

Tathmeen 22/1 9th -2pts 

Total -3pts

NEWCASTLE 8.45 

6F Class 6 Div II

13-Runners This 2nd division has the problem of having no known front running types among them so automatically my stakes will be kept low, in fact this race may be best served by laying horses rather than backing them. Caribbean Sunset 4/1 has won over this distance but is a better horse over a shorter distance and as long as there is a strong early gallop, I'm sure something will decide to try and win from the front as what very happens in this sort of race is that the trainers know about the lack of pace so decide to change their usual tactics but more than one has the same idea, I think it may struggle to stay and I will look to have a small lay on this one, I am not sure why when looking at the early tissue prices that Mutanaaseq 10/3 is predicted to be the favourite, yes it did win last time out on turf at Catterick but that was over 7 furlongs and it seems to prefer a longer distance plus its 0-9 on the AW tracks so another I will look to lay. Struck Gold 9/1 is 0-7 on the AW tracks and its 3 runs at Wolverhampton over this distance hasn't produced anything worthwhile time wise so that's a trio of horses that could be worth laying. If I do back anything in this race then I have found a couple of horses that are predicted to be big prices and may represent value in the race and a couple of small each way punts on KRAKEN POWER 16/1 (EW) and CHURCHILL BAY 66/1 (EW) may pay dividends but it isn't a race to be betting in too heavily. 

Kracken Power 16/1 3rd +3pts

Churchill Bay 66/1 Unp -2pts 

Lay bets: Caribbean Sunset -3.3pts

Total  -2.3pts

Total on the day -5.3pts

5:00 Southwell Racing Tips (9th April)

SOUTHWELL 5.00 

A 9 runner class 5 race with 2 known front running types amongst them in Airshow 9/2 and Woodland Charms, the former's best rating comes from Wolverhampton while its 4 runs at this course have produced ratings too low to register on my figures and if its a single figure price I will look to lay this one while the latter has just 2 poor runs at Wolverhampton to its name on this surface and I expect will be an outsider. Mega Marvel has only slow times from its ventures at both Newcastle and Wolverhampton but I'm not sure if they were slow run races or the surface was riding slow on those days so it could be a hidden danger. Dark Side Thunder 5/1 and Em Jay Kay 3/1 would both need to improve time wise to win this race and both can be held up for late runs or track the leaders, Notable 16/1 is my 4th top rated and usually races in midfield and is only 2lb below the 3rd rated horse so could make the frame if others falter, the horse in 3rd top spot is Claim The Stars 20/1 who can be held up or track the pacesetters. *BLACKJACK 4/1 is actually my 2nd top rated using a time it recorded over this course and distance this year and will be my main bet in this race but because CHURCHILL BOY 12/1 (EW) is rated 3lbs higher I will also have to back this one but mainly as a covering bet and hopefully it will be an each way price, because this one has had 14 runs, with 5 being on an artificial surface, and hasn't won any of them and that's the reason why its not my sole bet in this race.

*NR

Churchill Boy 20/1 6th -1pt 

Lay bet Airshow +1pt 

Total on the day 0pts 

1:15 Southwell Racing Tips (9th March)

SOUTHWELL 1.15 

A full complement of 14 runners in this 5 furlong dash where half the field are known as front running types and they could well cut each others throats in the battle for the lead and setting the race up for something coming from off the pace. I'm not sure I can find anything of value to put forward as a lay, 6th top rated Bert Kibbler, joint 4th top rated Level Up, 3rd top rated Angle Land and 2nd top rated Jeans Maite are all ones that like to set the pace and any would be dangerous if allowed an easy lead but I cannot see that happening here, Man On A Mission is my other joint 4th top rated and usually likes to track the leaders before staying on at the finish but my top rated is GOLDEN RAINBOW 11/1 who can be held up or track the leaders and then runs on strongly nearing the winning line, its record on an artificial surface is 2 wins and 3 placed efforts from just 7 races but none of them have been at this course but was recorded over the straight 5 furlongs at Newcastle and a repeat of that rating would see it winning a shade cosily and a pointer that makes me think its prepared for this run after a break is the jockey booking as they have a 19% win ratio when riding on the stables older horses. 

Golden Rainbow 11/1 5th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

NEWCASTLE 7.15 

A class 5 sprint with 2 possible pacesetters in the shape of Thaki, who will need to improve a bit time wise but is the more natural front running type, and Tathmeen 6/1 who is my 2nd top rated using a Southwell rating but has never won in this class of race, so it could go well but I doubt can win the race but never say never. Macho Pride 10/1 is just outside my top 4 ratings and can struggle to stay the distance in a fast run race, I will look to lay Prospect 10/1 if its a single figure price near the off as it might be better suited to a longer distance race and might need this run for fitness after a break. Shabaaby has a rating from 2020 which would put it in 3rd top spot but that rating is now looking like a fluke time recorded when getting towed along in a fast run race. My top rated horse is CHURCHILL BOY 40/1 (EW) but this one is still a maiden after 13 runs and the jockey is 0-11 for the stable although it is dropped in class compared to a lot of its previous races so with the negatives I cannot back it on its own but might be worth an each way interest and at the price I cannot let it run without having a bet on it, ONE MORE DREAM 5/1 is only 4th best on my figures but with negatives against the 3 above it in the ratings it could be the one to prosper if their failings come into play, it usually likes to track the leaders and has good trainer/jockey stats.

One More Dream 5/1 1st +5pts 

Churchill Boy 80/1 3rd +15pts

Total +20pts

Total on the day +19pts