7:30 Southwell Racing Tips (12th December)

SOUTHWELL 7.30 

A field of 13 for this class 3 dash over the minimum distance on the straight course and with 3 or 4 possible pacesetters it should be a nice race where the Tapeta form from here and Newcatle could be the most relevant in analysing this race to a conclusion. Blind Beggar recorded a decent but its was on the Polytrack surface at Chelmsford and races as though a longer distance might suit it better so if taking to the surface it could make the frame and exactly the same applies to Crimson Sand. Of the front running types in this race Strong Johnson stall 5 and/or Khabib stall 1 could do best and if one is allowed an easy lead they could be dangerous indeed and might do enough to make the frame and if pushed of the duo I would side with the latter while the other 2 front running types Lord Riddiford stall 6 and The Bell Conductor stall 13 might need to improve time wise to win this race. Bergerac and Hiya Maite could go well here the former is a hold up type while the latter likes to track the leaders but both would need to improve time wise to be winning this race. My idea of the winner and the one I will be backing is the 3yo CASTAN 17/2 who likes to track the leaders before staying on strongly at the finish and as long as its stall 9 draw doesn't prove to be its downfall this race could be run to suit it and the booking of today's jockey looks to be a positive one and a repeat of its rating recorded when winning at Newcastle this year would see it getting up close home for the victory, this will be its 1st run at this course but if taking to it then it could get back to winning ways. 

Castan 17/2 7th -1pt 

Total on the day -1pt

5:15 Newcastle Racing Tips (7th November)

NEWCASTLE 5.15 Div I

There is 5 of the 9 runners that have been known to set the early pace and I'm hoping that it will set up the race for one coming from off the pace, Open Market might get outpaced over this distance and one I would lay if it was less than 5/1 in price otherwise it wont be of value to lay as it has been known to lead before but I doubt it will be able to do that here. Nelson Gay could do best of those front runners as it is my 2nd top rated horse but this one is also happy to sit just off the pace and then stay on at the finish which I expect will be the tactics deployed by CASTAN 4/1 and this 3yo won last time out over this course and distance and a repeat of that time here would see following up in this race and being a youngster it could have improved since that last win. 

Castan 9/2 2nd -1pt

Total -1pt

NEWCASTLE 5.50 Div II

In this division I can see a few horses with possible weaknesses in their chances of winning this race, Royal Parade is one of 3 possible pacesetters in this race but has been in woeful form of late, Ey Up Its Maggie may not like this fast running Polytrack surface, Milbanke hasn't any form over the minimum distance and races as though it might have a better chance of winning when competing over a longer distance, Rambuso Creek may also prefer a longer distance unless its improves a good few spots for its first run on an artificial surface, Le Beau Garcon hasn't won a race since 2021 although it has run well on occasions, I could lay any of them as long as they are value to do so, you will have to decide what you think is value if you decide to lay any of them, Vadamiah is a possible pacesetter in this race and its best rating on turf would make it my 2nd top rated so could go well and might be worth an each way interest, the other possible pacesetter is Astapor but this ones last 3 runs have been quite poor but is my 3rd top rated on times on this surface so could make the frame if back to form Pockley is another who hasn't been in good form recently but is my 2nd top rated, the same can be said of SHOW ME SHOW ME 8/1 (EW) who comes out in top spot on my figures so his race isn't one to be betting in too heavily if at all and unless my top rated horse drifts to a double figure price so its of value to take an each way punt on then I will be leaving this race alone.

Show Me Show Me 18/1 2nd +2.6pts

Total +2.6pts

Total on the day +1.6pts