5:15 Newcastle Racing Tips (7th November)

NEWCASTLE 5.15 Div I

There is 5 of the 9 runners that have been known to set the early pace and I'm hoping that it will set up the race for one coming from off the pace, Open Market might get outpaced over this distance and one I would lay if it was less than 5/1 in price otherwise it wont be of value to lay as it has been known to lead before but I doubt it will be able to do that here. Nelson Gay could do best of those front runners as it is my 2nd top rated horse but this one is also happy to sit just off the pace and then stay on at the finish which I expect will be the tactics deployed by CASTAN 4/1 and this 3yo won last time out over this course and distance and a repeat of that time here would see following up in this race and being a youngster it could have improved since that last win. 

Castan 9/2 2nd -1pt

Total -1pt

NEWCASTLE 5.50 Div II

In this division I can see a few horses with possible weaknesses in their chances of winning this race, Royal Parade is one of 3 possible pacesetters in this race but has been in woeful form of late, Ey Up Its Maggie may not like this fast running Polytrack surface, Milbanke hasn't any form over the minimum distance and races as though it might have a better chance of winning when competing over a longer distance, Rambuso Creek may also prefer a longer distance unless its improves a good few spots for its first run on an artificial surface, Le Beau Garcon hasn't won a race since 2021 although it has run well on occasions, I could lay any of them as long as they are value to do so, you will have to decide what you think is value if you decide to lay any of them, Vadamiah is a possible pacesetter in this race and its best rating on turf would make it my 2nd top rated so could go well and might be worth an each way interest, the other possible pacesetter is Astapor but this ones last 3 runs have been quite poor but is my 3rd top rated on times on this surface so could make the frame if back to form Pockley is another who hasn't been in good form recently but is my 2nd top rated, the same can be said of SHOW ME SHOW ME 8/1 (EW) who comes out in top spot on my figures so his race isn't one to be betting in too heavily if at all and unless my top rated horse drifts to a double figure price so its of value to take an each way punt on then I will be leaving this race alone.

Show Me Show Me 18/1 2nd +2.6pts

Total +2.6pts

Total on the day +1.6pts

4:25 Chelmsford Racing Tips (25th August)

CHELMSFORD 4.25 

Not a great race even for its class and won't take much winning, I'm not sure what will set the pace to the race which always makes things much more difficult to analyse, I think The Tron 11/4 is better over further so this race might not be run to suit it plus I think its better on the Tapeta surface so might be worth laying especially if its as short a price as the early tissue prices suggest and the same could apply to Amalfi Gem 7/1 but this one is a 3yo so could improve so not sure whether to lay it or not again value will be the key, I will be having a small punt on ENCHANTED NIGHT 9/1 who is still a maiden after 16 runs but only 4 of them have been on the AW tracks but has been placed in 2 of those 4 races a positive is that its best rating was recorded over today's course and distance. 

Enchanted Night 9/1 8th 1pt 

Lay bets The Tron +1pt, Amalfi Gem +1pt 

Total +1pt 

NEWCASTLE 8.15 

A full house of 14 runners and to be honest there isn't really enough data to work with to be completely confident and I was going to leave this race alone but one horse ABERAMA GOLD 12/1 (EW) has a good speed rating on my figures, its actually my 2nd top rated but the top rated does its best work in lower class affairs and then when I checked the trainer and jockey stats and the jockey booking looks a positive booking as the 5lb claiming apprentice has had 2 wins from just 6 rides for the stable so it has to be worth taking a punt and I will be even happier if its an each way price. 

Aberama Gold 12/1 Unp -2pts 

Total -2pts 

NEWCASTLE 8.45 

A 12 runner race with 3 known front running types so it should be a true run class 3 dash, Stone Circle 8/1 and Never Dark 11/1 are capable of producing good speed ratings but may be outclassed at this level so maybe worth laying if single figure prices, the 3yo Mattice 7/1 would need to improve on its best rating on turf to win on its debut here on an artificial surface but I'm not sure if to lay it or not just because of its age, Be Proud 10/1 comes out 4th top on my figures and might be worth an each way interest, Cuban Breeze 5/1 is a possible pacesetter and my 3rd top rated so could be dangerous from the front and could do enough to make the frame, Sir Henry Cotton 8/1 is my 2nd top rated but might but be in the grips of the official handicapper after its 2 wins 3 runs ago, my top rated is SHOW ME SHOW ME 15/2 (EW) who has only had 3 previous runs on the AW tracks and looks to have a good chance here and the jockey is 1 win from 2 rides for the stable and if an each way price then all the better.

Show Me Show Me 9/1 1st +9pts

Total + 9pts

Total on the day +8pts

3:35 Goodwood Racing Tips (29th July)

GOODWOOD 3.35 

A Group 2 dash over five furlongs, there are 3 known front runners but I think they will set the race up for a finishing type, I'm not sure if i can find anything of value to lay, Lazuli would be my 3rd top rated but I had to go back to 2020 to find that rating and Clarendone House is my 3rd top on more recent ratings and could do best of those racing near the front, I've got Khaadem in 2nd top spot and only just 1lb below RAASEL 4/1 in top spot and this one has been in very good form lately. 

Raasel 4/1 2nd -1pt 

Total -1pt

SOUTHWELL 4.50 

There looks to be 3 possible pacesetters in this race and of that trio *FREEDOM FLYER 8/1 might do best as it comes out as my 2nd top rated on just 2022 ratings so has to carry some of my money just in case it pinches the race from the front as it is rated only 2lbs below STEELRIVER 6/1 who comes out in top spot and this one also has the best speed figure from just this course since it changed its surface to Tapeta I think Sir Gregory 11/2 is a better prospect on the Polytrack surface and I will look to lay if its a single figure price, Oriental Spirit 9/2 would need to improve upon its best rating from Kempton but this will be its 1st run on this surface so it could possibly improve for the switch or maybe not so I couldn't back it at the price but I'm also not sure I could lay it either. 

*NR

Steelriver 12/1 6th -1pt 

Lay bet Sir Gregory +1pt 

Total 0pts

SOUTHWELL 6.30 

There s 14 runners in this 5 furlong dash and only one front running type, Louis Treize 7/1 may need further to show its best and may be worth laying as long as it doesn't drift in price, the timelines are a little confusing between times on Tapeta at Newcastle and Wolverhampton compared to times here on the same surface, Scale Force 10/1 comes out in top spot on other Tapeta times so could go well here and might be worth an each way interest and it will be trying to stay on at the finish, I will be backing BERNARD SPEIRPOINT 13/2 who comes out in top spot using just times recorded here at Southwell and the trainer has a 19% win ratio at this course with their older horses and is the one that I think will set the pace to the race and i am hoping it can lead all the way to victory. 

Bernard Speirpoint 17/2 8th -1pt 

Total -1pt

MUSSELBURGH 8.20 

Of the 9 runners in this race I can only see Jojo Rabbit who has been known to lead before but time wise it would need to improve a good few spots but if allowed a very easy lead it could possibly pinch this race from the front, both The Thin Blue Line and Never Dark are capable of producing good speed figures but they may be outclassed at this level, Ready Freddie Go likes to track the leaders and could do enough here to make the frame, Only Spoofing is my 2nd top rated and another that likes to track the early pacemakers and is only 2lbs below my top rated horse SHOW ME SHOW ME 12/1 (EW) who can be held up or track the leaders and at the price might be worth an each way wager. 

Show Me Show Me 12/1 3rd +1.4pts

Total +1.4pts

NEWMARKET 8.30 

I cannot find a front running type in this field of 6 but 5 of them like to track the leaders so they could ensure there is a decently fast early gallop, Bossipop might need further to show its best so I'm not sure if this race will really suit it, Concierge is my 3rd top rated with Churchill Bay sitting in 2nd top spot but if LORDSBRIDGE BOY 5/1 can reproduce the speed figure it recorded at Salisbury in 2021 it would win this race with a few spots to spare.

Lordsbridge Boy 5/1 3rd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -1.6pts