7:00 Newcastle Racing Tips (14th December)

NEWCASTLE 7.00 Div I

A poor poor race split into two divisions and to be honest I cannot find much to write about most of the runners, I couldn’t find anything worthwhile laying as they are all double figure prices in the early betting for this race but something did catch my eye in this race and that is ABSOLUTE DREAM 5/2 who won last time out and has been found an ideal opportunity to follow up here as far as I can see it looks the most likely pacesetter to the race and if getting to the front it ought to prove very hard to catch. 

Absolute Dream 4/1 4th -1pt

Total -1pt

NEWCASTLE 7.30 Div II 

This second division looks the poor relation in the battle of two poor races and the fact that there isn't any known front running types in this race I need to tread carefully, I would normally, without a second thought, propose to lay Tantastic who doesn't really stay the distance if there’s a decent or fast early pace but that might not matter in this race but the fact its still a maiden after eighteen races means I will probably lay it to a smaller amount as long as its a single figure price, Kilconquar 2/1 is my top rated on just 2021 c/d times and looks my selections biggest rival, but drops to 2nd top on my overall figures behind FIRCOMBE HALL 3/1 who won last time out and has been found a good chance to follow up here.

Fircombe Hall 10/3 3rd -1pt

Total -1pt

Total on the day -2pts

2:45 Newmarket Racing Tips (28th August)

NEWMARKET 2.45 

A 10 runner Listed class race with a couple of front runners, the top weight Summerghand is dropped in class from its recent races and if reproducing its best time from 2020 here over the Rowley course it could win but its been way below that standard time wise so far this year and not worth risking, Adaay To Remember won last time out in a lower class race and might be a progressive type but this is a big jump in class but being a front running type it could go well but not one I would like to rely on, I will be on the side of TABDEED 2/1 who is another dropped in class and comes out as my top rated using its time from Newbury last time out when it finished 2nd and has been found a good opportunity to go one better here, I expect it will be the favourite but I don't mind backing shorter priced horse in races where the prize money is significant. 

Tabdeed 2/1 2nd -1pt 

Total -1pt

BEVERLEY 3.15 

This is a Listed class race with 4 known front runners amongst the field of 12 and both Tis Marvellous and Justanotherbottle could do well from the front as both are in my top 4 ratings, I would look to lay Dakota Gold 5/1 if its a single figure price as I think its better over longer distances but with the likely fast pace here it might play to its strengths but maybe too late for it to win this race, Wise Words my 3rd top rated will be trying to stay on strongly at the finish as will be TARBOOSH 14/1 (EW) who comes out top rated using a time from Musselburgh this year and hopefully it will be an each way price. 

Tarboosh 14/1 9th -2pts 

Lay bet Dakota Gold +1pt

Total -1pt

BEVERLEY 3.50 

A fairly big field of 15 runners with a couple of known pacesetters, until I've seen the betting I'm not sure if there's any worthwhile lays amongst them, Duke Of Firenze, Ventura Flame, Not On Your Nellie and Arnold have times that could make them competitive if at their best, I will be going with 2 wagers in this race firstly LATIN FIVE 11/2 who comes out top rated on just 2021 times and its good enough for 2nd top spot on overall figures and usually stays on strongly at the business end of its races but my top rated DARK SHOT 11/1 is the only natural looking front runner in the field and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch but the trainers 0-17 for the last 2 weeks doesn't fill me with confidence so I will go with the 2 bets to cover the angles. 

Dark Shot 14/1 4th -1pt 

Latin Five 8/1 5th -1pt 

Total -2pts 

WINDSOR 4.20 

A poor turnout of just 7 runners but there is a couple of front running types so it should be a true run race, I will look to lay Libertine Belle 5/1 who might need further to show its best, as for the winner I have to admit its a race where i will have to go with dutching 3 runners, LETHAL BLAST 7/2 is one of the 2 possible pacesetters and could be dangerous if allowed an easy lead as its only 2lb below GLAMOROUS BREEZE 3/1 on just 2021 times but the top weight SECOND COLLECTION 6/1 has a time from 2020 that makes it my top rated by 3lbs so its close between all 3 of them for various reasons and I cannot split them 

Second Collections 6/1 1st +6pts 

Glamorous Breeze 3/1 2nd -1pt 

Lethal Blast 7/2 4th -1pt 

Lay bet Libertine Belle +1pt

Total +5pts

NEWMARKET 5.35 

If this race had any known front running types it would be a cracking race but the lack of known early pace already means my stakes will be kept low, James Watt, Secretinthepark and Nibras Again are all rated within a 1lb of each other in 3rd to 5th top rated so could battle it out to make the frame, in 2nd top spot I've got Han Solo Berger but my top rated is the top weight SOUL SEEKER 8/1 who usually tracks the leaders and then stays on strongly at the finish and I do like it when a horse comes out top rated carrying higher weight against lesser opponents. 

Soul Seeker 8/1 8th -1pt 

Total -1pt

REDCAR 6.45 

With nearly half the field being either 3yo’s or lightly raced sorts this race is hard to analyse but I do think the connections of HAIL SEZER 6/1 have found their horse a good opportunity to follow up from the race it won last time out at Doncaster and recorded a fast time the race before at Carlisle when finishing 2nd which puts it at the top of my speed figures list but the trainers 0-4 for the last 2 weeks means my stakes will be kept low. 

Hail Sezer 6/1 2nd -1pt 

Total -1pt

REDCAR 7.15 

I was going to leave this race alone with once again half the field being 3yo’s or lightly raced sorts but when I checked the time recorded by ABSOLUTE DREAM 4/1 when it won over this course and distance 2 runs ago I was surprised to see it was well above what I would normally expect from a class 6 race, its last race was over 7 furlongs so can be ignored and is quickly dropped back to its winning distance and should confirm the form of its course and distance win over Shes A Deva.

Absolute Dream 4/1 2nd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -2pts

1:35 Southwell Racing Tips (16th March)

SOUTHWELL 1.35 

Only 7 runners but there is a couple of known front runners in the race, I will look to lay (Marwari) who has a good time from Newcastle but its 2 runs over this c/d haven't seen it go fast enough to register on my graphs, Gossip could attempt to lead but seems to set a slow pace, or maybe its the slow going here, True Hero is the other one that might lead and if getting an easy lead it could be dangerous but is only 3rd best on my figures, Qaaraat comes out 2nd best but from its 10 runs over this c/d it has only won twice but has been placed in the other 8 races so would be a nice each way bet but is forecast to be the favourite so I will side with ARZAAK 8/1 who is top rated using its best 2020 time and could win a shade cosily if able to reproduce that figure, I will also have a covering bet on True Hero just in case it gets an easy lead and then hold on to repel any challengers. 

Arzaak 9/1 4th -1pt 

Lay bet Marwari +1pt 

Total 0pts

SOUTHWELL 2.45 

This is a class 4 race so it should be quite good but i have a feeling there's a few runners that are having a run in preparation for when the turf season kicks into gear so any stakes will be kept on the low side, Lord Oberon looked good when winning last time out and that time would be good enough for 2nd top spot so I will expect it to run well here and I also expect it will be he favourite to win the race, I will go with what looks the value call and back ZYLAN 8/1 who has been known to lead before and if getting to the front from stall 9 it could prove hard to catch and hopefully it will be an each price and the 3lb claiming apprentice has a 16% win ratio for the stable. 

Zylan 12/1 5th -2pts

Total -2pts

SOUTHWELL 3.55 

This is a low class stakes race which seems to be new approach to let low grade horses have a chance of winning and most of the races are quite dire and if looking for recent 2020/21 c/d form there is virtually nothing to work with the only exception being RED STRIPES 7/1 this natural front running horse seems to have very little if any opposition for the lead, unless something changes its usual racing tactics, yes it is a 9 year old and certainly isn't as good as it once was but one day it will win another race by leading all the way and maybe that day will be in this race. 

Red Stripes 7/1 4th -1pt 

Total -1pt

NEWCASTLE 7.45 

This looks a good race for a class 5 affair with 11 runners but only one known front runner, I will look to lay (Zulu Zander 9/1) as long as it stays a single figure price, who seems better over five furlongs, Al Suil Elle may need further to show its best so this race might not be run to suit it, I wouldn't try to put anyone off backing the top weight Save The Spirit, Devils Angel does well at this c/d winning twice and placed twice from just 5 runs but would need to improve time wise to win this race, Good Night Mr Tom and Hart Stopper may need the run for fitness, I think that Kilconquar might be outclassed at this level, the same might be apply to to the bottom weight ABSOLUTE DREAM 13/2 but this one is the only known front runner and could dominate the race from the front and may take some catching but I do think that ATHOLLBLAIR BOY 6/1 could catch it as its only rated 1lb below it on recent c/d form but has a time from 2019 that would see it catching it quite cosily but I will be backing them both to cover both angles.

Athollblair Boy 6/1 2nd -1pt 

Absolute Dream 6/1 8th -1pt 

Lay bet Zulu Zander +1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -4pts