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Showing posts with label York. Show all posts
Showing posts with label York. Show all posts

Saturday, 17 June 2023

2:10 Chester Racing Tips (17th June)

CHESTER 2.10 – 

5f –Class 3 – 8 Runners With 4 front running types it should be a true run race and at this course a lot of races are won from the front, I'm not sure if Speedacus is capable of leading here from stall 3 while Ancient Times has got stall 10 also both need to improve time wise to win this race, I think the 3yo Absolutelyflawless 15/2 will be better when racing over further so might be worth laying if a single figure near the off. Vespasian is my 4th top rated and Lihou is 3rd top and are a few spots behind my top 2 ratings but is a front running type and stall 8 might not be ideal in the make-up of this race but could do enough to make the frame, Leodis Dream is that 2nd top rated horse and likes to track the leaders but could get squeezed out in the early stages from stall 7. My top rated is COPPER KNIGHT 9/2 who has its ideal conditions for the 1st time this year and its best rating recorded last year was over todays course and distance and it looks as though this race has been its target and has been prepared for this race so hopefully it can lead all the way from stall 4. 

Copper Knight 9/2 8th -1pt

Lay bet Absolutely Flawless +1pt 

Total 0pts

CHESTER 4.30 – 

6f – Class 4 – 10 Runners I can see 3 front running types and Cuban Breeze and Bezza's Lad from stalls 6 and 9 should make sure there's a fast early pace, if Follow Your Heart is a single figure price i would look to lay it as it either wants a longer distance or maybe some cut in the ground or maybe a bit of both while Ramon Di Loria finds this distance too far for it on fast ground. Ventura Express is my 4th top rated but I'm not sure if this turning track will suit it and from stall 5 its drawn between 2 fast starters so could get squeezed out, Roman Dragon is 3rd top using a course and distance rating from last year and from stall 2 it ought to be able to get a good position on the rails just behind the leaders, Ballyare is capable of recording a fast time but maybe not on good to firm ground at this level or at this distance. My money will be riding on TOUSSAROK 11/1 (EW) who is drawn in stall 4 and should be able to get away quickly and gain control of the all important rails position needed at this course, with its best ratings coming from Brighton and Goodwood it should be able to handle this track and at a double figure price it has to be given as an each way wager.

Toussarock 12/1 8th -2pts 

Total -2pts

YORK 5.25 – 

6f – Class 4 – 15 Runners In big fields here the draw favours those drawn low which wont help the cause of Abate, who is my joint 2nd top rated using a 2021 rating, completing its hattrick of wins but with only 1 other known front running type it might not be too much of a handicap and could possibly at least make the frame, I'm not sure if there's anything of value I can put forward as a lay but the betting might show me an opportunity but I will have to wait and see, Muscika is capable of running well, its my top rated using just this years ratings, and is my 4th top rated overall only rated 1lb higher than Rathbone in 5th top spot who from stall 3 could be the one to set the pace and if gifted an easy lead it could at least make the frame as its my top rated on just this years ratings, Showtime Mahomes is the other joint 2nd top rated using a Yarmouth rating from last year and is drawn in stall 1 which might be an advantage, Many A Star comes out in top spot using a 2021 rating recorded at Yarmouth that year and hasn't had many opportunities since then with ideal conditions. Its a tricky race and I will probably go with dutching 3 horses in this race with each way wagers, RATHBONE 22/1 who could lead all the way from stall 3 with very little competition for the early pacesetters role, SHOWTIME MAHOMES 14/1 who seems to like these courses without many if any undulations and MANY A STAR 20/1 who could go better than its form figures suggest because of the lack of ideal conditions and even then my stakes will be kept low.

Rathbone 22/1 7th -1pt 
Showtime Mahones 14/1 9th -1pt 
Many A Star 20/1 Unp -1pt

Total -3pts 

Total on the day -5pts

Thursday, 15 June 2023

2:05 Sandown Racing Tips (16th June)

SANDOWN 2.05 

5F Class 4 9 Runners It's very unusual to find a minimum sprint where there isn't any known front running types which always puts me on the back foot, Tolstoy doesn't seem to appreciate really fast ground, Thismydream may be outclassed at this level and Coup De Force might prefer a longer distance and I would look to lay them if of value to do so. Lil Guff is my 4th top rated and can be held up or track the leaders and might have to be aware of the early pace so as not to get the pace wrong and not run to its best, What's In The Bag is my 2nd joint top rated and likes to track the leaders while Harb my other 2nd top rated is usually held up for a late run so this race might not be run to suit it, LIPSINK 3/1 is my top rated and can be held up or track the leaders and will be carrying my money but not much of it in this race that could become a messy tactical affair.

Lipsink 5/1 4th -1pt 

Lay bets: Coupe De Force +1pt

Total 0pts

YORK 3.00 

6F Class 2 8 Runners Up to 6 furlongs for this sprint but I can only find 1 front running type so the early pace should be a decent one, Dora Penny, Radio Goo Goo and Distinguished Lady could all be outclassed at this level but the latter pair are 3yo’s so could still be capable of improving so maybe not ones I could lay confidently, while the former horse has won at this level but it was back in 2021. Crazy Luck may not want really fast ground and is another that might be outclassed at this level. My money will be riding on AL SIMMO 10/1 who is my top rated using a Salisbury rating it recorded last year and as its also the known front running type it could lead all the way in this race and the jockey has a 33% win ratio on all of the stables runners which rises slightly up to 38% when riding the stables older horses.

Al Simmo 10/1 2nd -1pt (Unlucky) 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -1pt

Friday, 26 May 2023

2:40 York Racing Tips (27th May)

YORK 2.40 

A cracking looking class 2 dash over this flat surface with 3, Chipstead stall 5 and Fine Wine stall 4 are 2 of them, known front running types to ensure there's a fast early pace and its a race where it could be won from the front. Reigning Profit maybe not class, Squealer maybe too short a distance will be lays if they are single figure prices. Alligator Alley who usually tracks the leaders is my 3rd top rated and drawn in stall 7 so could go either side of the course depending where the early pace is, Korker in stall 10 is my 2nd top rated and usually races at the rear of the field or in midfield but my top rated is the 3rd front running type is Copper Knight who is drawn in stall so if leading could prove a hard nut to crack. 

Each Way Bet COPPER KNIGHT 16/1 Unp -2pts 
Lay REIGNING PROFIT 9/1 (NA) 

Total -2pts

HAYDOCK 3.30 

A Group 2 dash and again there's 3 known front running types but there's 7 that are either 4yo’s or 3yo’s who might be capable of front running and or improve but haven't shown it so far in their relatively short careers so this race is probably best left alone and if Raasel isn't an each way price then I will leave the race alone, the two 3yo’s are forecast to be to the fore in the betting but I was told many years ago not to back a 3yo against older horses until June so hoping that's right and an each way bet on an older horse might pay dividends.

Each Way Bet RAASEL 14/1 Unp -2pts

Total -2pt

SALISBURY 7.10

A Listed sprint with 9 runners but I'm not sure what will set the pace, Marbaah is a 3yo so that might be against it here taking on its elders and it might need further to show its best form so this race might not be run to suit it so I will look to lay it if its of value to do so, Sir Maximus doesn't seem to like good to firm so I will add that to my lay list, Khaadem is my 3rd top rated and can be held up or track the leaders, Rohaan is a hold up type so this race might not be run to suit it but on the other hand if its a slow early pace its fitness might not be called into question, and my top rated its dropped in class to run in this race but this will be its 1st run after 244 days off so might need this run for fitness as it has done so before after a break, Run To Freedom is my 2nd top rated and it usually likes to track the leaders its a course and distance winner and had its 1st run of the year 14 days ago so hopefully that has got it fully tuned up for this race.

Bets 

ROHAAN 6/1 8th -1pt   
RUN TO FREEDOM 13/2 1st +6.5pts 

Lay MARBAAH 11/2 + SAM MAXIMUS 13/2 +1pt 

Total +6.5pts

Total on the day +2.5pts

Wednesday, 17 May 2023

1:50 York Racing Tips (18th May)

YORK 1.50

A field of 14 for this class 2 dash and I can see 4 natural front running types in the field so it will be a fast and furious race, as long as the going is good or better. If Designer 8/1 and Illusionist 9/1 are single figure prices I would look to lay them, the former wants some cut in the ground to show its best so if the going is good or better it could struggle while the latter races as though a longer distance would suit it better. Mondammej will be trying to stay on at the finish and comes out 5th best on my ratings and could feasibly make the frame, Nomadic Empire one of the front running types in this race is my 4th top rated and another front running type is Mountain Peak sits in 3rd top spot. I've got Korker as my 2nd top rated horse in this race and this might be the one to do best of those coming from off the pace but my money will be riding on another front running type in the shape of COPPER KNIGHT 12/1 (EW) who is housed in stall 1 so i am hoping there isn't a draw bias in favour of those drawn high and if this one does get to the front, without exerting too much energy if its poorly drawn, it could prove hard to catch and I'm hoping it will be of value to have an each way wager.

Copper Knight 14/1 9th -2pts 

Lay bet Designer +1pt 

Total on the day -1pt 

Tuesday, 16 May 2023

2:25 York Racing Tips (17th May)

YORK 2.25 

I must be mad trying to analyse a 23 runner class 2 sprint handicap, firstly as usual I'm not sure what the going will be, it's forecast to be good ground (then so was Musselburgh on Monday where my eyes and the times tell me it was definitely on the soft side of good more likely good to soft and maybe even soft in places) so as usual watch an earlier race to make sure the going is at least good or better. Secondly is there any draw bias at York, I think sometimes it favours high numbers but if they split into two or more groups I'm not sure where or if there will be a bias so I doubt I can find anything at a single figure price to lay and those that I would lay are not going to be worth the risk ratio. I can see 3 known front running types in this race with 2, Hyperfocus and Mr Wagyu being drawn high and if the bias is for those drawn high either of this pair could do enough to make the frame, and just one drawn low in the shape of LETHAL LEVI 16/1 (EW) and I will be having a small each way bet on it, there's nothing in the trainer or jockey stats that tell me to leave it alone so it might be worth taking on the risk of the draw. 

Lethal Levi 16/1 2nd +3pts

Total +3pts

YORK 3.00 

A more manageable field of 11 for this Group 2 sprint where I can see 2 known front running types and this race could be won from the front, if Azure Blue 10/1 and Marshman 9/2 are single figure prices I will lay them as I think both of them will be outclassed at this level of racing. Creative Force is my 4th top rated using a 2021 rating but didn't run up to that mark last year, Art Power is a front running type and my 3rd top rated coming out of stall 7 so could go well here and might be worth an each way punt if its a big price, Comanche Falls sits in 2nd top spot and this one seem to want fast good to firm ground so it should be ok here and another possible each way punt but I will be hoping that from stall 11 EMERAATY ANA 14/1 (EW)  can lead all the way, it has won before when returning after a break from racing so I'm hoping for a repeat here and I will be backing it and if an each way price then all the better.

Emeraaty Ana 18/1 9th -2pts 

Lay bet Marshman +1pt

Total -1pts 

Total on the day +2pts

Saturday, 3 September 2022

2:55 York Racing Tips (4th September)

YORK 2.55 

A very nice looking Listed race over 6 furlongs, on further investigation this race isn't as good as it looks as I have got a negative against every single runner bar one, Ventura Diamond might prefer some cut in the ground, Primo Bacio may need a longer distance to show its best form, Gale Force Maya could make the frame in this race but its never won at this level, Pure Dreamer comes out in 3rd top on my figures but it might be outclassed at this Listed level, Prisoners Dilemma has been in very good form recently in Ireland but time wise most of its form was in relatively slow run races and it has never won at this level but could definitely run a big race here, Lampang is capable of recording a good rating but all of its form is in handicap company and not at this level, Judicial looks a better prospect over a shorter distance and might be worth laying if a single figure price, Blackrod is 4th on my speed ratings and all of its form is from handicaps so may get outclassed in this race, which leaves me with *EBRO RIVER 11/2 who won last time out in this class of a race and its 9 runs previous to its win were all in Group races and some of those were Group 1 races so this level of race is right up its street and is the one I will definitely be backing in this race. 

*NR 

Total on the day - 

Friday, 22 July 2022

2:40 York Racing Tips (23rd July)

YORK 2.40 

Fifteen runners in this class 2 sprint with 2 known front running types and Hyperfocus is one of them and my 4th top rated so could do enough from the front to make the frame, I will look to lay Mondammej 9/1 who is a better horse over shorter distances another lay is Silver Samurai 5/1 who doesn't like good to firm ground but there is rain forecast so the ground might be ok for it, Music Society is my 3rd top rated but is taking on better horses here, Gabriel The Devil doesn't seem as good as it once was but could go well here if able to repeat its best rating from 2021, my money will be riding on LUCKY MAN 9/1 (EW) who will either race in midfield or be held up and then finish with a flourish as the finish approaches, its best rating was recorded over today's course and distance, has a nice looking jockey booking so could be a nice each way bet. 

Lucky Man 14/1 2nd +2.5pts 

Lay bet Silver Samurai +1pt

Total +3.5pts

NEWMARKET 3.42 

A nice field of 8 for this class 3 race, I can see a couple of horses, Alligator Alley and Society Lion, who look likely lays,the former has never won at today's distance and hasn't been in good form recently and the latter may be better when racing over further, Pure Dreamer and Oso Rapido are my joint 3rd top rated just 2lbs behind Chipstead who sits in 2nd top spot, the top rated SMEATON'S LIGHT 8/1 (EW)is also the only known front running type in this race so I'm hoping it can lead from start to finish to win this race and if all 8 take part I will back it each way. 

Smeaton's Light 8/1 5th -2pts 

Lay bet Alligator Alley +1pt 

Total -1pt 

NEWCASTLE 3.57 

A poor class 4 race with just 5 runners, I can see reasons why not to back all of them as 2 of them might prefer a longer distance 2 others have not been in good form lately which leaves me with MISS NAY NEVER 4/1 who has been known to lead so if leading here could lead all the way but its rating only just registered on my figures so the race wont take much winning and my stakes will be keep low. 

Miss Nay Never 4/1 1st +4pts 

Total +4pts

ASCOT 5.20 

In this class 2 race there is 3 known front running types in this field of 10 and two of them Lynns Boy and King Of Stars are in my top 4 ratings, in 4th and 3rd top spots, I cannot see anything of value to put forward as a lay, Live In The Moment comes out in 2nd top position so could make the frame, I've got JAWWAAL 8/1 (EW) as my top rated using a time recorded last year at Haydock and a repeat of that rating would win this race nicely but this is a much tougher course so as a bit of insurance I will look to back it each way to a small stake. 

Jawwaal 16/1 7th -2pts

Total -2pts

SALISBURY 6.30 

My 4th top rated horse The Deriant looks the likely pacesetter and could do enough to make the frame, the bottom 3 have very little to recommend them but will be biggish prices, Haseef and Minhaaj may prefer a longer trip, Hattie C and Q Twenty Boy are my 3rd and 2nd top rated so could be each way bets in this race but I will be backing WE’RE REUNITED 15/2 who usually tracks the leaders before staying on strongly at the finish and the booked jockey has a 23% winning ratio for the stable. 

We're Reunited 15/2 6th -1pt 

Total -1pt

SALISBURY 7.30 

Just 7 runners with 2 front running types Michael's Choice and Secret Handsheikh who are my 3rd and 2nd top rated horses, the bottom 3 in the handicap have shown very little worthwhile form recently and might be worth laying one, two or all three of them, Delegate This Lord hasn't shown much time wise lately so I will be backing STRIKE 11/2 who recorded its best rating over this course and distance and a repeat would see it winning quite smartly.

Strike 11/2 3rd -1pt

Lay bets Michael's Choice -3.5pts, Secret Handsheikh +1pt 

Total -3.5pts

Total on the day 0pts

Thursday, 21 July 2022

1:10 Thirsk Racing Tips (22nd July)

THIRSK 1.10 

Typical a nice looking sprint until I noticed there's not any known front running types in this race but that means this race might not be run to suit Dandy Spirit, Foreseeable Future and Gullane One who might be better over further or when there's a fast pace over this distance although the latter has never run over today's distance before, Country Charm who usually races in midfield is my third top rated in this race so could make the frame as could Orchid rose my second top rated in this race but i will be putting my faith and a small amount of money on COLEY'S KOKO 25/1 (EW) and if it can reproduce its best from this year it should win this race but if reproducing its best speed figure from Ripon in 2021 it would win this race with a bit too spare but at such a big price it has to be worth an each way punt. 

Coley's Koko 25/1 6th -2pts

Total -2pts

YORK 6.25 

With known front runners drawn in stalls 1,2,12 and 14 the pace should be spread across the course so nothing should be at a disadvantage, of those front running types Bossipop in stall 1 and Rhythm in stall 14 could do best of those running to the fore especially as the latter is my 3rd top rated, as for any lays Good Earth 9/2 needs to improve time wise and might struggle to stay the distance with a fast early pace, Lezardieux is my 4th top rated but this race might not be run to suit it, Captain Vallo comes out in 2nd top spot position so might be worth an each way punt but my money will be riding on DREAM TOGETHER 14/1 (EW) who likes to fast good to firm ground and likes to track the leaders before staying on the stronger at the finish and hopefully it will be an each way price. 

Dream Together 14/1 6th -2pts 

Lay Good Earth +1pt 

Total -1pt

CHEPSTOW 8.05 

There looks to be 3 front running types in this race and they are my 3 top rated horses as well so most of the runners wont be able to get involved in the finish, I might look to lay Rhubarb in this race as it might be better when racing over further, the top weight Amor De Mi Vida could be the one to prosper if they go off too fast and fade nearing the finish but I doubt that will happen, I have only 1lb between my 3rd top rated Coronation Cottage and my 2nd top rated Pop Dancer but if the 3yo FAIR AND SQUARE 6/1 can reproduce the rating it recorded at Windsor earlier this year it would win this race a shade cosily. 

Fair And Square 6/1 4th -1pt 

Lay bet Rhubarb -2.75pts

Total -3.75pts

Total on the day -6.75pts

Friday, 8 July 2022

4:40 York Racing Tips (9th July)

YORK 4.40 

A nice looking Listed class dash and this is a course that Winter Power 3/1 seems to really like but on my figures its only 4th top rated so may struggle to win this race and if its as short a price as predicted on the early tissue prices, seven to four, I would be tempted to risk things and lay it as its not shown much at all in its 2 runs so far this year admittedly not on courses it particularly likes, JUSTANOTHERBOTTLE 14/1 (EW) is my 3rd top rated using a speed figure it recorded at Musselburgh last year and as its the only known front running type in the race it could do enough to make the frame if not more so could be an each way prospect, MONDAMMEJ 14/1 (EW) is my 2nd top rated on my overall speed figures and top rated on just 2022 times so has to have a decent chance to win this race but it has poor trainer, 0-27, stats and the jockey has a poor 4% win ratio for the stable which doesn't inspire confidence but i doubt the trainer would sent it here with it being a non trier, ATALIS BAY 25/1 (EW) recorded a time at Haydock in 2021 that makes it my top rated and i think the only way in can go in this race is by backing all 3 of them hopefully with each way wagers. 

Mondammej 22/1 2nd +3.4pts
Justanotherbottle 14/1 5th -2pts
Atalis Bay 22/1 7th -2pts

Lay bet Winter Power +1pt 

Total +0.4pts

HAMILTON 6.30

There's a couple of known front running types in the shape of Astapor 5/1 my 5th top rated and Refuge my joint 3rd top rated so it should be a true run race but the former might not be quite quick enough to lead here and might be worth taking on with a lay, the 3yo Imperial Khan 7/1 has shown very little time wise and may be one to lay but as usual my stakes won't be too high with it being a 3yo, Sunset Glow is my other 3rd top rated and usually likes to track the leaders, Koropick usually races in midfield and comes out in 2nd top spot but I have EARN YOUR STRIPES 7/1 as my top rated but if the time it recorded over this course and distance last time out is to be believed and it can reproduce it again here it would win with a bit to spare but that was its 14th run when it broke its maiden tag but it has to be carrying some of my money and hope for a repeat performance.

Earn Your Stripes 7/1 2nd -1pt 

Lay bet Astapor +1pt 

Total 0pts 

Total on the day +0.4pts

Thursday, 9 June 2022

3:00 York Racing Tips (10th June)

YORK 3.00
 

GALE FORCE MAYA 8/1 recorded its best rating at Newmarket last year where it likes to track the leaders and could make the frame in this race so might be worth an each way punt.

AROUSING 6/1 this one would need to improve time wise to win this race its another that likes to track the leaders but I might look to lay this one. 

MOUNTAIN BRAVE 14/1 also likes to track the leaders before trying to stay on at the finish and on my ratings it could make the frame and might be a bit better than its actual rating.

ZIM BABY 20/1 usually likes to race in midfield or be held up for a late run but it might stay on too late to win this race but not of value to lay. 

EY UP ITS MAGGIE 7/1 has been known to lead before but likes to set a slightly slower pace and might not be able to do that here so might be worth looking to lay. 

CANDESCENCE 11/2 has won over today's distance on good to firm ground but it was a relatively slow run race but has a record of 2 wins, 5 places from just 9 races so I could lay it. 

AL SIMMO 8/1 this is the one that I think will set the pace to this race but I doubt it is good enough to hold on for the win but with an easy lead it could go well. 

CRAZY LUCK 11/1 doesn't want really fast ground so good and good to firm in places might suit it well and is my top rated using a rating recorded this year. 

INTERNATIONAL GIRL 33/1 has only poor ratings over this distance because with a decent early pace it doesn't stay the distance. 

MAKAROVA 4/1 I believe this one might not be up to winning at this level of race and its win at Salisbury was a slow run affair. 

SUMMARY: I've got Mountain Brave 14/1 as my third top rated and could do enough to make the frame and might be worth a small each way wager, the top weight Gale Force Maya 8/1 comes out in second top spot on my figures and will be to the fore from the off and could be worth an each way interest but I will be putting my faith and money on CRAZY LUCK 11/1 (EW) who is usually held up in midfield or at the back of the field and then finish with a flourish as the winning line comes into view and the jockey booking looks a positive booking and that makes me think connections are expecting at least a good run and I will be going with an each way bet.

Crazy Luck 12/1 2nd +1.4pts 

Lay bets Arousing +1pt, Ey Up It's Maggie +1pt, Candescence +1pt 

Total on the day +4.4pts

Friday, 23 July 2021

2:05 York Racing Tips (24th July)

YORK 2.05 

I think the 3 at the bottom of this class 3 handicap might be outclassed at this level in terms of winning this race but both Dark Shot and Eeh Bah Gum have been known to lead so could possibly do enough to make the frame and if pushed I would side the former doing best of them, Secretinthepark races as though further would suit it better and I could lay any of them if a single figure price, Mid Winster, Ventura Express and James Watt have recorded their best times this year so could go well in this race but I will be looking to back SOUL SEEKER 7/1 who will be trying to run on strongly at the business end of the race and this race could be run to suit it. 

Soul Seeker 7/1 1st +7pts 

Total +7pts

YORK 2.40

I can see a couple of known front running types in this race although one of them Giogiobbo would need to improve time wise to win this race, Manigordo can produce fast times but usually in a lower class race than today's but will be trying to stay on at the finish, I will look to lay Mundammej 11/2 who I think can struggle to stay this distance on turf, Golden Apollo 7/1 who might need further on good to firm going and could be another to lay, I'm not 100% sure if MUSIC SOCIETY 10/1 (EW) wants really fast good to firm ground but has a good chance on the clock to win this race and I will be having an each way bet on it, my other bet will also be each way on *TYPHOON TEN 33/1 (EW) who is a front running type and if getting to the front in this race it could prove hard to catch and I am hoping its an each way price for a bit of insurance. 

*NR 

Music Society 10/1 2nd +1.5pts 

Total +1.5pts 

NEWMARKET 5.20

This is a nice looking class 3 race and a good place to start is with Mr Wagyu who has been running out of its skin lately mainly in class 4 races but has run well in higher class affairs so I expect it to go well here, it likes to lead and is the only known front running type in the race plus it is my 2nd top rated in this race, I cannot see anything in the race that I could put forward as a lay in this race but I will be hoping that *LINCOLN PARK 9/2 can reproduce the time it recorded at Chester and if doing so would win with a bit in hand. 

*NR

SALISBURY 6.05 

An eight runner race where I will look to lay Starchant 11/1 and Spreadsheet 9/2 as usual if they are single figure prices, there's a couple of 3yo’s that could be hidden dangers but I will as usual stick with the proven and will be backing both HAVEONEYERSELF 9/4 who could try to lead all the way in this race and the other known front running type is CORONATION COTTAGE 11/1 and they are my 2 top rated so I'm hoping they don't cut each others throats trying to lead but I cannot see anything to take them on with so I will backing them both. 

Haveoneyerself 1st +3.5pts
Coronation Cottage 11/1 4th -1pt

Lay bets Starchant +1pt, Spreadsheet +1pt

Total +4.5pts

SALISBURY 7.35 

A field of 9 runners and as I hope to have an each way punt in this race I need at least 8 of them to run, I could lay three of the four 3yo’s in this race if they are a single figure price but I know if I lay all them one of them will improve enough to cause me to lose, Amathus is my 2nd top rated using just times from 2021 but that time is only good enough for joint 5th top place, along with Enduring, on overall figures and the latter recorded its time on an AW track and has poor form on turf, Aramis Grey comes out 3rd top but once again that's using a time from an AW track, the top weight Theotherside is one of three horses from the Hannon stable and is my 2nd top rated using a time from 2020 but I will hopefully be having an each way punt on KENDERGARTEN KOP 9/1 (EW) who recorded its best time this year at Brighton but the trainer hasn't got great stats but I'm hoping this one can get to the front and then prove hard to catch.

Kendergarten Kop 14/1 7th -2pts 

Total on the day +11pts
 

Thursday, 22 July 2021

4:10 Ascot Racing Tips (23rd July)

ASCOT 4.10 

Only 6 runners with 4 of them having led before it could be a fast and furious 5 furlong dash, the bottom two, Mountain Peak 8/1 and Bedford Flyer 7/1 have a negative against their names so may be worth laying, Jawwaal 11/4 will need the leaders to tire badly to catch them, Tis Marvellous and Significantly could both try to lead but on overall speed figures they may struggle to keep up with CASPIAN PRINCE 9/1 who if getting to the front could prove hard to catch especially if it can reproduce its best time Musselburgh earlier this year and looks the value call in the race if nothing else. 

Caspian Prince 16/1 6th -1pt 

Total -1pt

THIRSK 4.35 

There's a couple of known front runners in this race but neither feature top 4 ratings, I will look to lay Celerity 9/1 if its still a single figure price near the off which I doubt will happen, Hard Solution 9/2 may need a longer trip on good to firm ground it nearly always runs well but I'm doubting it will stay on fast enough to win this race so maybe another worth laying, the 3yo Royal Jazz has only a slow time over this distance on good ground and despite being a possible pacesetter it will need to improve time wise to win this race and may get taken on for the lead by Spirit Power and both may fade nearing the finish and if it wasn't for the fact that Royal Jazz is a 3yo I would out it up as a lay, Hello Girl 14/1 is my 2nd top rated on both 2021 times and overall figures so maybe worth a small each way punt but I will be backing the 3yo ALBEGONE 4/1 who recorded its best time this year over this course and distance and a repeat would see it winning again. 

Albegone 9/2 4th -1pt 

Lay bet Clebrity +1pt

Total 0pts

YORK 6.30 

For a class 4 race this is quite poor although I cannot see anything of value to put forward as a lay but the betting might change my mind, Hurstwood is my 3rd top rated using a time recorded at Ripon this year and usually likes to track the leaders but I cannot see a natural front running type in the race which always causes me problems in analysing a race, sitting in 2nd top spot is Gunmetal but this ones best time also came from last year at Ripon but I have OBEE JO 11/2 sitting in top pot with a few spots in hand, it won last time out and has been found a good opportunity to follow up in this race and booked jockey has a 20% win ratio on the stables older horses. 

Obee Jo 6/1 5th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

CHEPSTOW 7.40 

A 5 furlong dash with 3 known front running types in the race and those 3 are all in my top 5 ratings, I will look to lay Gherkin who may need further and may also lay Toptime and Glamorous Breeze who are 3yo’s which means they could improve but I'm hoping it doesn't happen in this race, if the leaders go off and cut each others throats then Lethal Angel and or Zulu Zander may be the ones to prosper and might be worth having a covering bet on just incase the leaders tire badly nearing the finish, Davids Beauty and Pink Flamingo are 2 possible pacesetters and could do enough to make the frame but i will be putting my faith in THEGREYVTRAIN 4/1 who is a possible leader and if doing so could be hard to catch, its best time from this year plus the apprentices 7lb claim make it my top rated and it has an even faster time from 2020 which would see it winning with a little bit in hand.

Thegrevytrain 4/1 9th -1pt 

Lay bet Gherkin +1pt 

Total on the day -2pts

Friday, 11 June 2021

1:35 Sandown Racing Tips (12th June)

SANDOWN 1.35 

I will look to lay both Phoenix Star 11/2 and Vandad 11/1 if they are single figure prices, the former seems to want a longer trip to show its best while the latter has poor trainer/jockey stats and seems a weak finisher over both sprint distances, Shecandoo 8/1 has been running well but my be outclassed in this race but i doubt it will be a single figure price at the off, Secretfact 12/1 seems to be on a downward spiral time wise each year and as an 8yo I doubt it will bounce back to its best of 2019, Saaheq 13/2 doesn't want the ground to be rattling but this ones best time from 2019 would put it in the mix but the trainer has a poor record here with their older horses of one win from thirty four races, Royal Birth 14/1 could go well here but its another that I've gone back to 2019 to find its best form, they are all capable on their day but can they bounce back to form is the question so I will place my faith on SERAPHINITE 15/2 who likes to track the leaders and is my top rated on recent, 2020/21, times and the jockey has a 25% win ratio on the stables older horses so I'm hoping that's a positive omen. 

Seraphinite 15/2 6th -1pt 

Total -1pt

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CHESTER 2.10

I can see 3 front running types in this 14 runner race but I am not a fan of betting at this course, Turanga Leela 8/1 and Glory Fighter 9/2 could set the pace and the former could do enough from the front to make the frame but they are both a bit short in the betting to be of value in my opinion, Brian The Snail 10/1 could go well but stall 3 isn't of any help for a hold up type unless the rails have the cutback nearing the finish, Second Collection 14/1 is my top rated on a time from Windsor last year but its out in stall 12 which could be a hindrance and the trainer is 0-16 here and the jockey is 0-12 for the stable, so my money will be on SIR MAXIMILLIAN 11/2 who from stall 4 could sit just behind the leaders waiting to pounce at the business end of the race. 

Sir Maximillian 10/1 2nd -1pt 

Total -1pt

YORK 5.25 

A field of 20 here so very very hard to be sure what will happen concerning the draw, I think/hope those drawn high may have the advantage and will be betting accordingly, Mr Wagu 8/1 has been in tremendous form lately and could try to set the pace here but this is a step up in class so I'm not sure its up to winning this race but I do expect it to go well and could at least make the frame so I will have a covering bet on this one just in case it is improving enough to handle this higher class race, there isn't anything of value that I can find to lay in this race as they are all double figure prices so no lays but I will be having a small each way wager on SOUL SEEKER 16/1 who usually tracks the leaders and then stay on at the finish, it has good jockey stats and also a stall 17 draw might be advantageous so at the price it looks the value call. 

Soul Seeker 18/1 6th -1pt

Total -1pt

LEICESTER 8.45 

Only 7 runners but 4 of them have been known to lead, I will look to lay Cool Spirit 2/1 who may need further to show its best and looks poor value at the price so worth taking the risk of laying it, it has been known to lead but in longer distance races so it might get outpaced in the early stages of this race, Davids Beauty could do best of the front runners and will be hard to pass once hitting the front but with only 2 places its not worth going each way, my money will be riding on KATHERINE PLACE 13/2 who likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly in the final stages of the race so this race could be ideal for it.

Katherine Place 13/2 3rd -1pt 

Total on the day -4pts

Saturday, 5 September 2020

2:00 York Racing Tips & Lay Bets (6th September)


YORK 2.00 

A nice looking Listed race, the going is given as good but PLEASE check before betting, I would look to lay (Judicial 9/2 as it may struggle to stay the distance with a fast early pace which i expect here) of the front runners I think Mum's Tipple 14/1 may do best and could do enough to make the frame, Major Jumbo and Galadriel are the other two that have been known to lead before, my 2nd top rated is Aristocratic Lady who can be held up at the back or run in the middle of the pack and could stay on for a place but my money will be riding on the 3yo STARMAN 4/1 who likes to track the leaders and then stay on the stronger at the finish and the jockey has a 21% win ratio for this stable. 

Starman 4/1 1st (+4pts) Betfair (6.2pts)

Lay bets: Judicial +1pt

Total: +5pts

MUSSELBURGH 2.55

I think this race could be won from the front and it looks set to be a fast and furious affair, I will look to lay (Indian Pursuit 9/2 + Amazing Alba 7/2 + Gorgeous Gobolina 5/1) as all 3 might need further to show their best form, if I go back to 2018 Bashiba would have every chance of winning this race but seems to be on a downward spiral at the age of nine, Henley is another that would do well on 2018 times but again going downhill aged eight and I would lay this one if in a single figures price, the same applies again to Lydiate Lady aged eight, the 3yo Maybelline 25/1 could go well and maybe worth an each way punt but I'm not confident enough to put it forward as such, my money will be riding on THE DEFIANT 9/2 who is a front runner and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch.

The Defiant 9/2 Unp (-1pts)

Lay bets: Amazing Alba (Betfair -7.6pts), Indian Pursuit +1pt, Gorgeous Gobolina +1pt 

Total: -5.6pts

MUSSELBURGH 3.30

I was going to leave this race alone until something caught my eye, the one I will be having a small bet on doesn't want fast ground so good going should be ideal but it was the price that swayed me to take the risk so I will have a small each way wager on ECONOMIC CRISIS 22/1 (EW) although the jockeys 0-18 record for the stable is off-putting.

Economic Crisis 22/1 2nd (+4.5pts) 

Total: +4.5pts

Total +3.9pts 

Tuesday, 18 August 2020

3:55 Bath Racing Tips (19th August)


BATH 3.55 

PLEASE CHECK THE GOING AT BOTH MEETINGS BEFORE BETTING - NO BET SOFT GOING. 

Only 7 runners and I have got big negatives against most of them so this race will be a process of elimination, the bottom 3 all look outclassed in this race but Coronation Cottage is the likely pacesetter and may try to steal the race from the front if allowed an easy lead, the two 3yo’s also have negatives, which leaves me with 2 that could win, the topweight would need to improve timewise to win if the going is good or firmer so I have to back CONCIERGE 8/1 who has been racing in higher class affairs than this race and the trainer has a good record at this course. 

No Bet (soft ground)

YORK 4.20

With just over half the field being 3yo’s this race could take some analysing, I would lay 3 horses if the going is good to firm (Keep Busy + Maygold + Mighty Spirit) so please look at the going before laying any of them, I can see 3 that have been known to lead before so it should be a true run race, I can a few horses that could run well in this race, Sampers Seven who will be near the fore from the onset, Free Love who is 3rd top on just 2020 times and 2nd top using its best 2019 time so it could be thereabouts at the finish, my money will be riding on *ELECTRIC LADYLAND 18/1 (EW) who won the time before last in a very fast time at Windsor on good to firm ground then finished 4th on officially good ground at Goodwood and the think the undulations and camber at that course didnt really suit it should go much better on this more level surface and the jockey has a decent strike rate for the stable, at the price it has to be an each-way wager.

*NR

Friday, 24 July 2020

12:30 Newmarket Racing Tips (25th July)


NEWMARKET 12.30 

Looking at the weather forecast I have most likely written today's blog in vain as each course is forecast to have rain, so please check the going before betting. The early pace will most likely be set by Outrage but unless allowed a ridiculously easy lead I doubt it can hold on for the win, Thegreatestshowman is my 3rd top-rated and can be held up or track the leaders as can my 2nd top-rated horse Line Of Reason so both could go well here but I will be backing BLUE DE VEGA 5/1 who usually tracks the leaders and then stay on the stronger at the finish and could get a good tow into the race being housed 2 stalls away from the likely pacesetter. 

Blue De Vega 5/1 1st (+5pts)

Total: +5pt

YORK 3.50 

A couple in this race who I will lay as they could struggle to stay the distance looking at the make-up of this race, (Abate + Autumn Flight) I think I should add Round The island to my list of lays as it looks outclassed at this level but it is capable of running a fast time which muddies the water a little, there's only 1lb between Normandy Barriere and Mutabaahy in 3rd and 2nd top spots, top-rated and the horse I will be backing is PADDY POWER 14/1 (EW) who hasn't shown much in its 3 runs this year but it looks to have been found an ideal opportunity to get back to winning ways but as usual when its a big price I would say to back it each way. 

Paddy Power 18/1 Unp (-2pts)

Total: -2pts

YORK 4.25 

I cannot work out which horse will set the pace here which always makes my analysis many times harder plus there's several horses that haven't got much data for me to work with, it's very close at the top of my speed figure list, Big Lachie is 3rd best and this horse is usually held up for a late run and its only rated 2lb below Roundhay Park in 2nd top spot and this one can be held up or track the leaders, top-rated but only by 1lb is FIRMDECISIONS 16/1 (EW) who likes to track the leaders and then stay on at the finish it will be the one I back with an each-way punt at the price but my stakes won't be at full strength. 

Firmdecisions 28/1 8th (-2pts)

Total: -2pts

DONCASTER 5.30

There's a few lightly raced sorts in this race so my stakes won't be at full tilt here, Napping is capable of running well and producing good speed figures but it is usually in lower class races and this isn't the trainers favoured course with a 0-12 record, Gullane One is a possible leader here but its speed figures have gone down each year for the last 2 years so maybe past its prime at the age of 7, Choosey is another that would be fancied on a time from 2018 but hasn't been at that level since then, I will be backing *DEVIL'S ANGEL 4/1 who usually runs in the middle of the pack and then staying on resolutely at the finish but I cannot leave DANECASE 13/2 out as it won last time out over an extra furlong in a fast time and looking back at its best 6-furlong time from 2018 it would have every chance in this race.

Dancase 7/1 7th (-pt)

Total: -1pt

Total on the day: 0pts 

Friday, 17 July 2020

3:05 York Racing Tips & Lay Bets (18th July)


YORK 3.05 

Even I get tired of writing this but please check the going before betting if you cant I would advise you to not to have a bet, I don't want to lose you any money. There's 9 runners in this Listed class dash, (El Astronaute still runs ok but it isn't the horse it used to be and may struggle here + Moss Gill will need to improve timewise to win this race) so I will look to lay this pair, I'm not 100% sure how good or bad the 2 3yo’s are but betting wise they don't seem fancied and would both have to improve to win this race, I think this race will be won from the front unless they cut each other's throats having a ding dong battle to gain control up front, Que Amora is my 3rd top-rated, Equilateral comes out 2nd best but my money will be riding on ALPHA DELPHINI 15/2 who should prove hard to catch if getting to the front. 

Alpha Delphini 12/1 8th (-1pt)

Lay bets: Moss Gill -6pts, El Astranaute +1pt

Total: -6pts

YORK 4.10 

A field of 20 is usually enough to put me off but a couple of pointers made me think I might have found and each way opportunity, the draw can make a difference at this course and I will be backing the horse with the highest draw, HIGHLY SPRUNG 15/2, who is a known frontrunner and with the rails to help it then it could lead all the way but my stakes will not be at full tilt. 

Highly Strung 25/1 Unp (-1pt)

Total: -1pt

NEWBURY 4.00 

A cracking Group 3 race where I will look to lay (Judicial who might not stay the distance in the make-up of this race with some fast pacesetters) Summerghand is my 3rd top-rated overall and 2nd top-rated on just 2020 time, TIS MARVELLOUS 14/1 (EW) is 3rd best on 2020 times but has a time from 2019 that would make it my overall top-rated and it is one of the likely pacesetters and if getting to the front could have every chance to lead all the way so has to be an each-way punt, TINTO 9/1 (EW) is top-rated on just 2020 times and that figure is only 2lbs below the overall top-rated so I will have to back them both each way to cover the angles. 

Tis Marvellous 14/1 7th (-2pts)
Tinto 12/1 Unp (-2pt) 

Lay bet: Judicial +1pt

Total: -3pts 

BATH 5.05

There's 11 runners in this race with 3 known frontrunners, so it should be a genuine paced affair and the race, could easily be won from the front, King Crimson may struggle to lead in this race but Archimedes is my 2nd top-rated and a from the front it can be dangerous, it hasn't been in the best of form lately is capable of bouncing back to form without prior warning but my top rated is also a frontrunning type and if CORONATION COTTAGE 5/1 gets to the front it could be hard to catch and has been found an opportunity to go one better than its 2nd place finish on its last run.

Coronation Cottage 13/2 7th (-1pt)

Total: -1pt

Total on the day: -11pts