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Tuesday, 22 October 2019

3:10 Newcastle Racing Tips (22nd October)


NEWCASTLE 3.10 

Quite a nice looking class 2 race with a full house of 14 runners BUT and it is a big BUTT there isn't any known frontrunner in the race and with no bends the draw doesn't help me work out what might happen, Equiano Springs my 4th top-rated usually stays on at the finish but if there's not a fast early pace it might get outpaced when they kick for home and then not be able to get near them, Paddy Power likes to track the leaders and comes out 3rd best in 2nd top spot I've got Staxton who can be held up or track the leaders, my stakes certainly won't be at full tilt but I will be backing ATHOLLBLAIR BOY 6/1 who usually likes to track the pacesetters and the apprentice jockeys 5lb claim can swing things in this one's favour. 

Athollblair Boy 10/1 Unp 

NEWCASTLE 5.20

There's a few lightly raced sorts in this race which always makes analysis tricky and makes sure my bets are kept in check, Swiss Connection could be the one to set the pace in this race drawn in stall 14 so nothing should get in its way and if this 3yo is allowed an easy lead it could do enough to make the frame, Arnold is well-weighted and my 3rd top-rated and it likes to track the leaders, BE PROUD 5/1 is my 2nd top-rated but the booked jockey has a 19% win ratio for this stable so I'm thinking that they are expecting it to run well here but I do have TATHMEEN 10/1 rated higher and this one usually stays on at the finish of its races and I will be splitting my stake between the 2 selections. 

Tathmeen 10/1 1st + EX £38.40 
Be Proud 13/2

KEMPTON 7.30 

With a couple of known front runners it should be a true run race especially when my 3rd top-rated on this years figures SPARKALOT 5/1 is one of the potential pacesetters but it does have a time from 2018 that would see it win this race quite cosily and has only run twice so far this year so maybe ready now run to its best again, the 3yo Total Commitment comes out 2nd best and likes to track the leaders so could make the frame, I've got another 3yo as my top rated and REVOLUTIONISE 9/2 is a good few spots clear in recent times and could still be able to improve, the trainer and jockey stats are both over 20% win ratios so they expect it go well, I have to back them both but if I knew the front running Sparkalot was fit enough to do itself justice then it would be my sole selection.

Revolutionis 9/2 3rd
Sparkalot 5/1 6th 

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