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Monday 30 December 2019

1:40 Lingfield Racing Tips (30th December)


MERHOOB has a fastish c/d time from this year that would put it 2nd top on just this years times and has a time from Chelmsford in 2018 that would make it my top-rated but it hasn't been in good form lately but if leading from the off it could prove hard to catch but hasn't been able to lead lately so not sure quite what to expect.

LADY DANCELOT 5/1 hasn't any course form but does have a time from Kempton in 2018 that would make it 3rd top overall while its 2019 time is quite a bit below that level, the trainer has decent stats at this course and the horses versatile racing tactics makes it another I'm not really sure what to expect but I'm doubting it can win this race, so worth laying the win part at the price.

TOTAL COMMITMENT 15/2 another with no course form to work with while its best time in 2019 is from Kempton but a few spots below what's required to win this race but being a 3yo never say never but I would look to lay it if of value which it is just about. 

INTISAAB 11/1 is on a losing streak of 20 which doesn't inspire confidence, it hasn't run over this c/d so far this year but it's c/d time from 2018 would make it my 2nd top-rated overall. I'm not saying it can't go well here but I'm doubting its chance of winning the race. 

DUNKERRON 7/1 is a 3yo who has good trainer/jockey stats but hasn't run at this course before and its best time from Kempton this year would make it 4th best on overall figures so it could make the frame but would need to improve to win the race so lay at the price. 

CHARMING KID has 1 run over this c/d which resulted in a slow time, it's best speed figure which is from Kempton this year isn't good enough to win this race and the jockeys 0-14 on the stables 3yo’s makes me think I will lay it if of any value but not at 20/1.

COUNT OTTO has had 3 wins and 2 places from 8 runs on the AW tracks but would need to improve timewise to win this race and another I would look to lay if of value. 

PRINCE OF ROME has a time from Kempton in 2019 that would put it just outside my top 4 ratings, it has never run here before but has won twice and been placed another 6 times in its 9 runs on the AW courses, it needs to improve but being a 3yo it could feasibly do so but its not for me in this race so a lay at 7/2. 

FIZZY FEET 6/1 has good trainer/jockey stats and won its last race so is in cracking form, its 3rd best on just my 2019 c/d times and 6th top overall and I think it could make the frame especially having won twice and placed 6 times from its 12 AW runs.

SPOOF hasn't won in its last 13 races and its best time from Kempton in 2018 wouldn't be good enough to break that run here and the jockeys 1-31 record on the stables older horses isn't inspiring and also a shorter trip might suit it better.

SECOND COLLECTION has one run over this c/d but in a slow time, it has won 2 and placed 3 from 10 AW runs, its best time from this year which was at Kempton would leave outside my top 4 ratings so not for me int this race.

SUZI'S CONNOISSEUR has a fast time over this c/d from earlier this year but hasn't been in good form lately and this class may be a touch too high for it nowadays but does usually try to stay on at the end of its races. 

SUMMARY: I will not be betting too heavily in this race as its got too many variables to be completely sure of what will do what, MERHOOB 12/1 is more than capable of winning this race if leading but for some reason hasn't been able to do so lately, it may be worth the risk and have an each-way punt at the price.

Merhood 12/1 3rd

Related post: Remember When Eric Tipped This 25/1 Shot?

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