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Sunday, 29 December 2019

3:00 Southwell Racing Tip (29th December)


SOUTHWELL 3.00 

EMILY GOLDFINCH hasn't any form on this surface and I don't think it will suit it and it may also be better over further so one I would lay if of any value to do so but not at 25/1.

MOONRAKER 5/2 one of 3 known frontrunning types in the race and if getting to the front in this race it could prove hard to catch is my 2nd top-rated.

CROSSE FIRE 6/1 is another that might try to lead but is 4th top on 2019 c/d times but does have a time from 2018 that would see it make the frame. 

SAMOVAR 8/1 is my 3rd top-rated on just 2019 c/d times but this one also has a time from 2018 that would put into contention to make the frame. 

NICK VEDDER is on a losing run of 13 which is off-putting and races as though a longer distance would suit it better and a 20/1 outsider. 

JONBOY 14/1 hasn't any c/d form to its name but it could suit this surface and distance which would make it a danger but I will stick with the proven as it doesn't seem fancied.

YOUNG TIGER 7/2 I'm not sure if this one is up to this class of race but it is capable of recording a fast time and has been I good form lately. 

AWSAAF 2/1 hasn't any c/d form to its name but I think it won't be suited to this surface and another I would look to lay if of any value to do so but too big at the price.

SUMMARY: There's a couple I could lay in this race, a definite hidden danger in Jonboy who at the price doesn't look fancied here, Young Tiger has the fastest time but recorded in a race two classes below this class 4 affair which is enough for me to doubt it will be able to cope with this raise in class, the 3 known frontrunners are all drawn next door to each other in stalls 3, 4 and 5 which could hinder Moonrakers chances and also maybe set the race up for one of the finishers and my money will be riding on SAMOVAR 8/1 who looks the value call at the price and the jockeys 21% win rate for this stables older horses makes me think they are expecting a big run in this race.

Samovar 8/1 5th

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