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Friday, 17 July 2020

3:05 York Racing Tips & Lay Bets (18th July)

YORK 3.05 

Even I get tired of writing this but please check the going before betting if you cant I would advise you to not to have a bet, I don't want to lose you any money. There's 9 runners in this Listed class dash, (El Astronaute still runs ok but it isn't the horse it used to be and may struggle here + Moss Gill will need to improve timewise to win this race) so I will look to lay this pair, I'm not 100% sure how good or bad the 2 3yo’s are but betting wise they don't seem fancied and would both have to improve to win this race, I think this race will be won from the front unless they cut each other's throats having a ding dong battle to gain control up front, Que Amora is my 3rd top-rated, Equilateral comes out 2nd best but my money will be riding on ALPHA DELPHINI 15/2 who should prove hard to catch if getting to the front. 

Alpha Delphini 12/1 8th (-1pt)

Lay bets: Moss Gill -6pts, El Astranaute +1pt

Total: -6pts

YORK 4.10 

A field of 20 is usually enough to put me off but a couple of pointers made me think I might have found and each way opportunity, the draw can make a difference at this course and I will be backing the horse with the highest draw, HIGHLY SPRUNG 15/2, who is a known frontrunner and with the rails to help it then it could lead all the way but my stakes will not be at full tilt. 

Highly Strung 25/1 Unp (-1pt)

Total: -1pt

NEWBURY 4.00 

A cracking Group 3 race where I will look to lay (Judicial who might not stay the distance in the make-up of this race with some fast pacesetters) Summerghand is my 3rd top-rated overall and 2nd top-rated on just 2020 time, TIS MARVELLOUS 14/1 (EW) is 3rd best on 2020 times but has a time from 2019 that would make it my overall top-rated and it is one of the likely pacesetters and if getting to the front could have every chance to lead all the way so has to be an each-way punt, TINTO 9/1 (EW) is top-rated on just 2020 times and that figure is only 2lbs below the overall top-rated so I will have to back them both each way to cover the angles. 

Tis Marvellous 14/1 7th (-2pts)
Tinto 12/1 Unp (-2pt) 

Lay bet: Judicial +1pt

Total: -3pts 

BATH 5.05

There's 11 runners in this race with 3 known frontrunners, so it should be a genuine paced affair and the race, could easily be won from the front, King Crimson may struggle to lead in this race but Archimedes is my 2nd top-rated and a from the front it can be dangerous, it hasn't been in the best of form lately is capable of bouncing back to form without prior warning but my top rated is also a frontrunning type and if CORONATION COTTAGE 5/1 gets to the front it could be hard to catch and has been found an opportunity to go one better than its 2nd place finish on its last run.

Coronation Cottage 13/2 7th (-1pt)

Total: -1pt

Total on the day: -11pts

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