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Sunday 5 July 2020

5:15 Windsor Racing Tips & Lay Bets (6th July)


KONCHEK has only slow recent times over this distance but has been tried in higher class races but has been out of form for quite a while now but would be dangerous if bouncing back to form plus it has good trainer/jockey stats so maybe they are expecting a big run here. 

AMPLIFY can be held up or track the leaders but would need to improve on its best time from Bath to win this race and also to spring back to form.

TROPICS is a veteran 12-year-old and I doubt it can find the improvement in time needed to win this race and may finish too late to7/ get involved in the finish. 

BLUE DE VEGA is my top-rated on this year's times and has an even faster time from 2019 that would see it winning cosily.

KICK ON KICK ON is one of the two known frontrunning types in the race and could do enough to make the frame but I doubt it can hold on for the win.

YIMOU has no distance form on turf and a slow time on its one attempt on an All-Weather surface and may need further to show its best. 

DARK SHOT the other possible frontrunner and has a time from 2018 that would be good enough for it to make the frame.

SPOOF this may not want genuine good to firm going so should be ok here but it would need to improve on its best time to win here.

SECOND COLLECTION hasn't any form over this minimum distance and may need further to show its best and its usual hold up style would scupper any chance here so will need to change it 

SUMMARY: I will look to lay 4 horses in this race, (Spoof + Dark Shot + Yimou + Kick On Kick On) the topweight Konchek may be capable of improving and could be an each-way bet, Amplify has good jockey stats but the trainers record with its older horses here is 0-10 which puts me off its chances of winning but it could still make the frame, as my data is only based on winners not placed horses as I wouldn’t back each way if I didn't think it could win the race, my money will be riding on BLUE DE VEGA 7/2 who usually likes to track the leaders and is drawn in stall 8 and should get a good tow into the race with the pacesetters being drawn in stalls five and seven.

Blue De Vega 5/1 5th (-1pt)

Lay bets: Yimou -4.5pts, Dark Shot +1pt, Kick On Kick On +1pt

Total on the day: -3.5pts


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