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Thursday, 26 November 2020

11:35 Southwell Racing Tips (27th November)


SOUTHWELL 11.35 

There's only 7 runners and I still cant narrow it down to one selection and its a race where I will back the one I think will lead and one that likes to run on at the finish, Red Stripes is a possible leader but its form since after the lock down has been quite poor and it wont get an easy lead here, I'm hoping the early pace will be set by SLOWMO 5/1 who has a rating from Newcastle that would make it my top rated but its one c/d run in 2018 resulted in a slow time so not 100% sure what to expect, the other horse I will be backing is ARZAAK 2/1 who won last time out and has been found a good opportunity to follow up here. 

Slowmo 13/2 1st (+6.5pts) (Betfair SP 8.44)
Arzaak 9/4 4th (-1pt)
Total: +5.5pts

SOUTHWELL 1.40 

This race is very close at the top of my ratings, Moveonup and Requinto Dawn are joint 4th top rated and could be trying to stay on at the finish while Dirchill and Crosse Fire will be trying to win from the front being my 3rd and 2nd top rated horses but I will be backing PUCHITA 13/2 who is my top rated and that speed figure was recorded this year and I do like it when this apprentice rides for the stable as he has a 17% win ratio on their older horses. 

Puchita 17/2 3rd (-1pt) 

Total -1pt

SOUTHWELL 2.45 Div I

This is a poor looking race with a very limited amount of data to work with but the top weight does catch the eye, its due to run Thursday but I think this would be a much easier task for USTATH 9/4 to win its 4th race in a row and if it does run both days I will be backing it unless its too short a price. 

Ustath 9/4 4th -1pt

Total -1pt 

SOUTHWELL 3.20 Div II

This 2nd division is a little better in the amount of data I've got to work with, I have to say its not a race to be getting too heavily involved in betting wise and there looks to be very little early pace in the race, Trevie Fountain finished 2nd last time out but it was in a slow run affair, Phantasmal, Le Manege Enchante, The Golden Cue, Dors Toyboy and Hellofagame all have speed figures very close to each others and could run well but i will be relying on FIRST EXCEL 9/2 who has been known to lead when nothing else wants to, which could be the case here, and has a time over this c/d in 2019 that would see it winning this race cosily but the jockeys record of 0-12 is a little off-putting, I was hoping it would be an each way price so I hope it drifts a bit.

First Excel 7/1 3rd +0.4pts

Total +0.4pts

Total on the day +3.9pts

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