5:35 Lingfield Racing Tips (30th September)

LINGFIELD 5.35 

A 10 runner race where only 5 of them have gone fast enough to register on my figures and 4 of them have recorded ratings for this year, I will start with Firenze Rosa 5/2 who on the early tissue prices is forecast to be the nine to four favourite and I think is solely down to it finishing 2nd last time out but that was on soft ground and I am concerned whether it will like this relatively fast artificial surface plus the trainer is 0-5 for the last 2 weeks and its 28 runners and 51 days since the stable last had a winner so one i will definitely be laying it, Lady Florence 11/4 is 3rd top on just 2021 times and 3rd top overall using its faster time from 2020, the top two ratings flip flop, depending how you look at things as they are both being ridden by 3lb claiming apprentices, ARZAAK 6/1 is top rated on just 2021 times and rated 3lbs higher than GREEN DOOR 10/1 (EW), so they could both be rated the same, who would have eaten this lot for breakfast a few years back but hasn't shown much on recent runs and this will only be its 2nd race of the year, at least its giving weight to theoretically weaker horses and could possibly lead all the way but with them being so close on my speed figures I will be backing them both to cover the angles, maybe two each way bets is the best way forward, at the prices maybe one win bet and one each way wager. 

Arzaak 17/2 4th -1pts 

Green Door 10/1 9th -2pts

Total -3pts

CHELMSFORD 7.00 

The 3yo Maajdah is forecast to be a fairly hot favourite, 13/8, on the early tissue prices and I have to admit it did run to a high rating when it won last time out at Wolverhampton but this is a completely different kind of surface and would need to adapt but it will also need to improve about 7lbs if others run to their best so for those reasons I would definitely look to lay it at such a short price, Mejthaam11/2 is forecast to be the 2nd favourite and I can find negatives against this one as well, it won over this distance on turf when setting a slow pace but wont be allowed an easy lead in this race and I think it might get outpaced early doors in this race, it will or should be running on at the distance but this one also needs to improve time wise to win this race, there is also two more 3yo’s, Jojo Rabbit 12/1 and Miss Nay Never 9/1, who also like to lead, that makes a total of 6 of the 11 runners prefer to lead so maybe they will set the race up something coming from off the pace so I will be backing INVINCIBLE LARNE 15/2 (EW) who is 2 wins and 7 places from its 14 AW races and if it reproduces its best time from 2020 it will catch them in the closing stages of this race and if an each way price then all the better. 

Invincible Larne 16/1 3rd +2.2pts 

Lay bet: Maajdah +1pt

Total +3.2pts

CHELMSFORD 8.00 

I hope all 8 runners take part so there's 3 places if I find an each way bet, the 3yo Tawaazon 9/2 looks as though it is better over a shorter trip and maybe worth laying especially at the price, there's two known front running types but I doubt whether Rebel Redemption 6/1 is fast enough to lead and even if it could I doubt it would stay there for the victory, the 3yo Another Dawn 6/4 comes out 2nd top but that figure was recorded on a different surface at Wolverhampton but if taking to this surface it could have every chance, my money will be riding on the other pacemaker in the shape of BERRTIE 8/1 (EW) and this one has the plum draw in stall 1 and if getting to the front this 3yo could lead all the way and get back to winning ways. 

Berrtie 12/1 4th -2pts 

Total -2pts

CHELMSFORD 8.30 

This Is a class 6 race but even for the class its quite poor and any stakes will have to be kept low, I doubt there will be anything of value to lay so it looks like small win bet/s, Twice As Likely 5/1 comes out 4th top rated on my overall figures and 2nd top on just 2021 times, Our Man In Havana 12/1 comes out 3rd best using a 2020 speed figure but it is the only one that has been known to lead before but that is only when nothing else wants to lead but could be dangerous if allowed an easy lead, top rated on just 2021 times is IRISH TIMES 7/1 and usually tracks the leaders and then run on at the finish but I do have VINCENZO COCCOTTI 7/1 rated higher using a time from last year and would be my sole bet if it had been in better form this year and the trainer had their last winner 27 days ago which doesn't inspire me and I will go with 2 small win bets.

Vincenzo Coccotti 7/1 +7pts + EX £31.20

Irish Times 7/1 2nd -1pt 

Total +6pts

Total on the day +4.8pts

1:00 Yarmouth Racing Tips (11th August)

YARMOUTH 1.00 

TROUSER THE CASH 5/2 has only slow times on turf over this distance and is 0-4 on turf it might be a bit too short for it on good to firm ground but it does have a fast time from on the AW at Chelmsford and usually races in midfield, the trainer is 0-12 in the last 2 weeks which doesn't inspire confidence so maybe worth laying at the price.

BREEZYANDBRIGHT 7/4 won quite nicely last time out but that was in a relatively slow run race and will need to improve to pick up the front runners in this race, it does have good trainer/jockey stats but this horse was the stables only winner in the past fortnight and is poor value in my opinion and might be worth laying as you lose very little if it does win. 

ARZAAK 4/1 one of two possible pacesetters in this race and it has the best time for just 2021 but that is relatively slow compared to overall times from last year and even 2019, its best time from last year makes it my top rated but the trainer is 1-65 at this course and hasn't had a winner in the last 2 weeks. 

TILSWORTH ROSE 10/1 the 2nd of the known front running types in this race, the trainer is 0-15 in the past fortnight and is 1-92 at this course, it hasn't run on good to firm ground so far this year but its best from 2020 would make it competitive.

SWELL SONG 10/1 hasn't shown much time wise so far this year while its best times from 2020 and 2019 would put it in the mix, it has average trainer/jockey stats and he is 2-22 in the last two weeks. 

KELINDA DICE 12/1 hasn't any recent form over this trip on good to firm ground and I am of the opinion it might do better when raced over a longer distance, not sure about the jockey booking, 0-1 while the trainer has a poorish 7% win ratio at this course. 

SWEET NOTHING 14/1 is a 3yo who is making its handicap debut in this race but it would need to improve dramatically on what its shown so far to win this race. 

CONCLUSION: I am not filled with confidence in my selection for this race because of the trainers poor record, see above, but ARZAAK 4/1 is top rated on both this years and last years figures and is one of only 2 front running types in the race so if getting to the front it could be hard to catch. 

Arzaak 10/1 5th -1pt 

Lay bet Breezyandbright +1pt

Total 0pts 

SALISBURY 3.05 

ADDITIONAL 5/1 this ones trainer has been in good form lately with a 3-8 record and the jockey booking also looks as though it could be a positive, a 19% win ratio, but time wise it needs to improve and I think its better when raced over further but will be staying on at the finish.

DELEGATE THIS LORD 11/4 this one hasn't any course and distance form to its name since 2019 where its best time would make it my top rated but only by 1lb and another that should be staying on at the finish, the jockey booking, 1-13 does put me off a little.

NEWYORKSTATEOFMIND 6/1 the trainer is in decent form with a 3-15 in the last 2 weeks and has a 2-8 record at this course but is 0-2 with their older horses and the jockey is 0-3 again on the stables older horses and time wise is my 4th top rated but there is only 4lbs between 4th and 1st top rated. 

NEFARIOUS 8/1 has poor trainer, 0-5 and jockey, 0-6, with the stables older horses, it hasn't got any recent distance form since 2018 mainly due to it looking like it needs a longer distance to show its true worth so I will look to lay it. 

UNDER CURFEW 15/8 this ones jockey has a decent 19% win ratio with the stables older horses at this course and the trainer is 5-63 in the last 2 weeks plus its best time was recorded this year at Leicester so this course should suit it, it is the only known front runner in the field plus its only 1lb off top spot.

SENECA CHIEF 15/2 the trainers recent form, 3-9, is very good and is my 3rd top rated just 1lb below my 2nd top rated so it could be close nearing the finish, the trainer is 0-2 at this course though and the jockey 0-3 on the stables older horses. 

CONCLUSION: I will look to lay Nefarious 8/1 who might want further than this distance to shine but should be trying to stay on at the finish, I am hoping that UNDER CURFEW 15/8 who is my top rated on just 2021 times can lead from start to finish and hopefully the jockey booking shows the stable expect it to run well here.

Under Curfew 4/1 2nd -1pt 

Lay bet Nefarious +1pt

Total on the day 0pts

Underlined - Lay 

Bold - Bet  

1:00 Southwell Racing Tips (8th April)

SOUTHWELL 1.00 

(The times recently on this surface have been very slow so any stakes have to be kept low) I expect Aleef to be one of the two horses who set the early pace here and it could do enough to at least make the frame, Quannah and Somewhere Secret have times from elsewhere that would put them in the mix but neither have raced on this surface before, True Hero is the other known front runner and won over c/d last time out and did record a slowish time but that's been the norm recently on this surface so could follow up here and I will use it as a cover bet but my main bet will be on ARZAAK 13/2 who has a time from last year that would see it winning but was behind True Hero last time out here so my stake will be kept low. 

Arzaak 13/2 3rd -1pt

Total -1pt

SOUTHWELL 1.35

There's 2 known front runners in this field of 10 and to be totally honest there isn't really enough recent data to be sure of the final analysis but i will put forward one that i will be having a small bet on, JAZZ LEGEND 8/1 is one of the 2 possible pacesetters and if getting to the front it could prove hard to peg back, it has the best recent time which is a bonus with how slow this surface is riding and its best time from 2019 would see it having every chance of leading all the way and if big enough in price i would go with an each way bet. 

Jazz Legend 16/1 6th -2pts

Total -2pt

SOUTHWELL 3.15 

This is a tricky looking race, there isn't any I could discard completely although I'm not sure this surface suits Batchelor Boy and could be worth laying but it is one of only two known leading types in this race, if I'm right that would leave Thrave to make the early pace and this one is one of 3 that are my co-2nd favs and recent c/d times, One Hart might also be better on a faster surface, my money will be riding on EXCESSABLE 9/2 who likes track the leaders and then stay on the stronger at the finish and the jockey has a good 22% win ratio on the stables older horses. 

Excessable 5/1 4th -1pt 

Total -1pt

SOUTHWELL 4.25 

This race is poor even for a class 6 stakes race and there's only one horse with a recorded time over this c/d in recent times, 2020/21, Brandy Station destroyed its field last time out but as for normal around here lately the time was slow and its best time on Tapeta wouldn't quite be enough to win this race so I will be having a small wager on RED STRIPES 6/1 who can lead but has also been known to stay on strongly at the finish if the leaders fade. 

Red Stripe 6/1 4th -1pt

Total -1pt

CHELMSFORD 7.50 

A six runner race where half of them could lead and they may well set the race up for one of those finishing well nearing the finish, of the front runners Global Prospector may do best as its my 3rd top rated, in 2nd top spot is The Nosey Parker but this one hasn't any form at this course as its best time was at Wolverhampton on a different surface, so I will be backing *JUMIRA BRIDGE 6/1 hoping it can finish strongly here and pick them all up nearing the finish.

*NR 

Total on the day -5pts

1:35 Southwell Racing Tips (16th March)

SOUTHWELL 1.35 

Only 7 runners but there is a couple of known front runners in the race, I will look to lay (Marwari) who has a good time from Newcastle but its 2 runs over this c/d haven't seen it go fast enough to register on my graphs, Gossip could attempt to lead but seems to set a slow pace, or maybe its the slow going here, True Hero is the other one that might lead and if getting an easy lead it could be dangerous but is only 3rd best on my figures, Qaaraat comes out 2nd best but from its 10 runs over this c/d it has only won twice but has been placed in the other 8 races so would be a nice each way bet but is forecast to be the favourite so I will side with ARZAAK 8/1 who is top rated using its best 2020 time and could win a shade cosily if able to reproduce that figure, I will also have a covering bet on True Hero just in case it gets an easy lead and then hold on to repel any challengers. 

Arzaak 9/1 4th -1pt 

Lay bet Marwari +1pt 

Total 0pts

SOUTHWELL 2.45 

This is a class 4 race so it should be quite good but i have a feeling there's a few runners that are having a run in preparation for when the turf season kicks into gear so any stakes will be kept on the low side, Lord Oberon looked good when winning last time out and that time would be good enough for 2nd top spot so I will expect it to run well here and I also expect it will be he favourite to win the race, I will go with what looks the value call and back ZYLAN 8/1 who has been known to lead before and if getting to the front from stall 9 it could prove hard to catch and hopefully it will be an each price and the 3lb claiming apprentice has a 16% win ratio for the stable. 

Zylan 12/1 5th -2pts

Total -2pts

SOUTHWELL 3.55 

This is a low class stakes race which seems to be new approach to let low grade horses have a chance of winning and most of the races are quite dire and if looking for recent 2020/21 c/d form there is virtually nothing to work with the only exception being RED STRIPES 7/1 this natural front running horse seems to have very little if any opposition for the lead, unless something changes its usual racing tactics, yes it is a 9 year old and certainly isn't as good as it once was but one day it will win another race by leading all the way and maybe that day will be in this race. 

Red Stripes 7/1 4th -1pt 

Total -1pt

NEWCASTLE 7.45 

This looks a good race for a class 5 affair with 11 runners but only one known front runner, I will look to lay (Zulu Zander 9/1) as long as it stays a single figure price, who seems better over five furlongs, Al Suil Elle may need further to show its best so this race might not be run to suit it, I wouldn't try to put anyone off backing the top weight Save The Spirit, Devils Angel does well at this c/d winning twice and placed twice from just 5 runs but would need to improve time wise to win this race, Good Night Mr Tom and Hart Stopper may need the run for fitness, I think that Kilconquar might be outclassed at this level, the same might be apply to to the bottom weight ABSOLUTE DREAM 13/2 but this one is the only known front runner and could dominate the race from the front and may take some catching but I do think that ATHOLLBLAIR BOY 6/1 could catch it as its only rated 1lb below it on recent c/d form but has a time from 2019 that would see it catching it quite cosily but I will be backing them both to cover both angles.

Athollblair Boy 6/1 2nd -1pt 

Absolute Dream 6/1 8th -1pt 

Lay bet Zulu Zander +1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -4pts

1:10 Southwell Racing Tips (28th January)

When I write these blogs I hope you don't just look at the selections in capital letters or the lays in brackets and underlined because you could be missing things that you could use to your advantage. I write these blogs two days before the race and I post the night before and things can change with non-runners and how the betting changes things so my ramblings might help your decision making. 

SOUTHWELL 1.10 

Just 8 runners with 3 known front running types who are drawn in the 3 inside stalls and its a race where i will have to back a front runner and one coming from off the pace just in case they go off too fast and tire nearing the finish,I think Alexej will be at the fore of the betting and I think mainly because its from the powerful stable of J.Gosden and the jockey R.Havlin but its runs from 2020 were all over further that the 6 furlongs here and stayed on at the finish so I'm surprised its dropped down in trip, obviously it could be a very superior horse compared to the rest and win despite it not being ideal conditions but I will lay it if a short price, I am hoping that ZYLAN 10/3 can get to the front and if doing so it could prove hard to catch being my 2nd top rated but I do have SHALLOW HAL 10/1 rated just 3lbs higher so may need a trouble free run to pick up the pacesetters hence the 2 bets, both have decent trainer stats and have good jockeys stats in fact their stats are identical and it looks as though both stables are expecting to win. 

Shallow Hal 10/1 1st (+10pts) (Betfair SP 6.86) 

Zylan 15/2 3rd (-1pt)

Total: +9pts

SOUTHWELL 3.55 

Down to 6 runners for this race but with 2 known front runners it should be a true run affair but both of the pacesetters would need to improve time wise to win this race, Ornate one of them has a good 2 wins and 3 placed efforts from just 5 c/d runs and the other King Of Stars has won twice from just 4 previous c/d runs, Giogiobbo may stay on at the finish but maybe too late to win the race, Diamond Dougal hasn't any course form but could take to this surface and be a hidden danger, Tawny Port is my 2nd top rated using a 2019 time but it hasn't any recent c/d form to work with, my money will be riding on THEGREATESTSHOWMAN 4/1 who is well handicapped and will be winning again soon and has every chance to do so here. 

Thegreatestshowman 4/1 2nd (-1pt) 

Total: -1pt

SOUTHWELL 4.25 

Up to 9 for this race but only one front running type in the shape of Gossip who is dangerous if allowed to set its own slightly slower pace and has won 2 of its 4 previous c/d races but there is a few who like to track or press the leader so maybe wont be able to pinch the race from the front, Marwari has a good time from Newastle but I'm not sure this surface will suit it, Pearl Of Qatar has good trainer/jockey stats and will be staying on at the finish but could struggle if its a slow run affair and if it wasn't for the good trainer/jockey stats i would lay it and if its a short price i might still lay it, the jockey has a 25% win ratio for the stable but it still means hes beaten in 3 out of every 4 races, i will be siding with ARZAAK 7/1 who can be held up or track the leaders and has won 3, placed 5 from 13 c/d runs so likes the course. 

Arzaak 12/1 8th (-1pt) 

Total: -1pt

NEWCASTLE 7.30 

I was going to leave this class 6 stakes race well alone and I will only bet in the race if my selection is a double figure price, that horse is STAR CRACKER 10/1 who can spring back to form without warning and might be worth having a small risky each way bet if its of value

Star Cracker 11/1 3rd +1.75pts

Total on the day: +8.75pts

11:35 Southwell Racing Tips (27th November)

SOUTHWELL 11.35 

There's only 7 runners and I still cant narrow it down to one selection and its a race where I will back the one I think will lead and one that likes to run on at the finish, Red Stripes is a possible leader but its form since after the lock down has been quite poor and it wont get an easy lead here, I'm hoping the early pace will be set by SLOWMO 5/1 who has a rating from Newcastle that would make it my top rated but its one c/d run in 2018 resulted in a slow time so not 100% sure what to expect, the other horse I will be backing is ARZAAK 2/1 who won last time out and has been found a good opportunity to follow up here. 

Slowmo 13/2 1st (+6.5pts) (Betfair SP 8.44)

Arzaak 9/4 4th (-1pt)

Total: +5.5pts

SOUTHWELL 1.40 

This race is very close at the top of my ratings, Moveonup and Requinto Dawn are joint 4th top rated and could be trying to stay on at the finish while Dirchill and Crosse Fire will be trying to win from the front being my 3rd and 2nd top rated horses but I will be backing PUCHITA 13/2 who is my top rated and that speed figure was recorded this year and I do like it when this apprentice rides for the stable as he has a 17% win ratio on their older horses. 

Puchita 17/2 3rd (-1pt) 

Total -1pt

SOUTHWELL 2.45 Div I

This is a poor looking race with a very limited amount of data to work with but the top weight does catch the eye, its due to run Thursday but I think this would be a much easier task for USTATH 9/4 to win its 4th race in a row and if it does run both days I will be backing it unless its too short a price. 

Ustath 9/4 4th -1pt

Total -1pt 

SOUTHWELL 3.20 Div II

This 2nd division is a little better in the amount of data I've got to work with, I have to say its not a race to be getting too heavily involved in betting wise and there looks to be very little early pace in the race, Trevie Fountain finished 2nd last time out but it was in a slow run affair, Phantasmal, Le Manege Enchante, The Golden Cue, Dors Toyboy and Hellofagame all have speed figures very close to each others and could run well but i will be relying on FIRST EXCEL 9/2 who has been known to lead when nothing else wants to, which could be the case here, and has a time over this c/d in 2019 that would see it winning this race cosily but the jockeys record of 0-12 is a little off-putting, I was hoping it would be an each way price so I hope it drifts a bit.

First Excel 7/1 3rd +0.4pts

Total +0.4pts

Total on the day +3.9pts

4:45 Southwell Racing Tips & Lay Bets (29th October)

SOUTHWELL 4.45 

I can see a few to lay in this race (Good Earth + Time To Reason + Hawk In The Sky) if they are in single figure prices, Onebaba is my 3rd top-rated so could make the frame but there is a few lightly raced sorts in the race and it won't take much winning.

JAZZ LEGEND 33/1 (EW) is my top-rated using its best time from 2019 but it hasn't shown much in its 3 runs this year but it is the only known frontrunning type in the field and with an easy lead it could get back to winning ways but the jockeys 0-9 record for this stable puts me off a little else it would have been my only selection but at the price, I will have to have an each-way wager on it, I will also be backing.

GORGEOUS GENERAL 10/3 who has the top figure of the others and it was from this year and the trainer does well at this course. 

Generous General 10/3 3rd (-1pt)

Jazz Legend 33/1 Unp (-2pt)

Lay bets: Good Earth +1pt, Time To Reason +1pt, Hawk In The Sky +1pt

Total: 0pts

CHELMSFORD 5.00

There's 3 known frontrunners in this race and Edge Of The Bay is my 3rd top-rated on a 2020 time with Sir Hector in 2nd top spot using its best 2019 time so they should ensure there's a fast early pace but if INDIAN PURSUIT 5/2 can reproduce its best time which was recorded this year it would be winning a little cosily but I think it will be the favourite but I cannot find anything I would back against it. 

Indian Pursuit 5/2 1st (+2pts) (Betfair SP 2,22)

Total +2.5pts

SOUTHWELL 6.15 

Half of the 12 runners have been known to lead before so it will be a fast and furious dash and i have a feeling they might battle too hard and then fade nearing the finish, Crosse Fire can record fast times but doesn't win in this class of race but could make the frame, Dark Shot is versatile with its racing tactics and has a fast c/d time from 2019 to its name, Astro Jakk and King Of Stars are another couple of possible leaders and have times that would put them in the mix, my money will be riding on SAMOVAR 16/1 (EW) and hopefully it will be an each-way price, it is 2nd top on just 2020 c/d times, just 1lb below top spot, and 3rd top overall still only by 1lb, so if they do fade at the finish it could be the one to prosper and must have an each-way chance if repeating its best and the win isn't out of the question. 

Samovar 16/1 -2pt

Total: -2pts

SOUTHWELL 7.15 

Not the worst of races even for a class 6 affair, of the 13 runners there's 3 known front-running types and Red Stripes and Archimedes are both in my top 5 ratings, Loulin has a time from 2019 that would see it in the mix but they could all be battling for a place, I've got joint top-rated horses but Under Curfew recorded its fastest time at Lingfield which is a different surface so I will be backing ARZAAK 5/1 who recorded its best time which was over this c/d and this year which is always a positive.

Arzaak 5/1 (+5pts) (Betfair SP 6.29)

Total: +5pts

Total on the day +5.5pts

2:40 Southwell Horse Racing Tips (31st August)

SOUTHWELL 2.40 

A very nice looking class 3 dash with 6 of the 13 runners being known as front-running types and maybe they will battle too hard to gain control and play into the hands of a finishing type, I've got several that could make the frame, Zapper Cass who will be trying to stay on at the finish, Samovar who likes to track the leaders, Young Tiger would need to improve a couple of spots to actually win this race, Dark Shot who is versatile when it comes to racing tactics but its using a 2019 time the same with Requited but this one has been known to lead before, another 2 that could try to set the pace is Moveonup and Red Stripes. I will be backing two horses in this race, firstly DOC SPORTELLO 11/2 who has good jockey stats making me think they are expecting a big run but that also applies to my 2nd selection AIRGLOW who could get a good tow into the race from stall 10 but has a time from 2019 that would make it my top rated but only by 1lb so virtually nothing between them and my 2nd top rated one has the better draw and I might tilt my bets in favour of this one. 

Doc Sportello 11/2 5th (-1pt)
Airglow 15/2 9th (-1pt)

Total -2pts

SOUTHWELL 3.50

Another dash and again with 6 horses that have been known to lead also again I think it will play into a horse coming from off the pace, I will look to lay both (Lydiate Lady + Melgate Magic) who have both in poor form recently and are worth laying as long as they are in single figure prices, the 2018 Archimedes would probably be able to lead all the way here but hasn't been at that level since that year, the same applies to Robot Boy but has been a little worse recently, the top weight Honey Gg is another that could go well from the front if able to reproduce its best 2019 time, I will be hoping ARZAAK 5/1 can stay on the stronger at the finish and the jockey having his first ride for the stable looks like a positive booking.

Arzaak 10/1 2nd (-1pt)

Total -1pt

Total on the day: -3pts