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Monday, 7 December 2020

4:15 Southwell Racing Tips (8th December)


SOUTHWELL 4.15 

Only 9 runners but a very hard race to analyse, there are a couple of known front runners so that's not the problem, I will look to lay (Scale Force + Pull Harder Con) if a single figure price, the early pace maybe forced by Samovar and/or Turanga Leela but the latter hasn't any form on this course but I am hoping from stall 2 that the former can get to the front and control of the rail and then could prove hard to catch for most of the field, Album has the stall 1 draw and likes to track the leaders so is ideally drawn it has a good time from Chelmsford but would need to improve a couple of pounds for the switch to this surface to win the race, I will be putting my trust and money on MOVEONUP 16/1 who is usually held up for a late run and this race looks likely to be run to suit its racing style and the apprentice jockey booking looks a positive move and their 7lb allowance takes it to the top of my ratings and at the price available it has to be given as an each way punt. 

Moveonup 15/1 Unp (-2pts)

Lay bets: Scale Force +1pt, Pull Harder Coin +1pt

Total: 0pt

SOUTHWELL  5.45

A poor turnout of 6 runners for this claimer, the bottom pair look to be out of their depth and will be the 2 outsiders, Thrave has the potential to go onto better things and could try to set the pace but i still prefer the proven, Requinted Dawn is my 3rd top rated and usually tracks the leaders, YOUNG JOHN 5/4 is my 2nd top rated on just 2020 c/d times but its best time from 2019 moves it to top spot and this front runner from stall 2 could set the pace and control the rails but just in case it cannot repeat its best from last year i will also back PUCHITA 7/2 who is my top rated on just 2020 times. 

Young John 5/4 2nd (-1pt)
Puchita 4/1 4th (-1pt)

Total: -2pts

SOUTHWELL  7.15 

A full complement of 14 for this race for amateur jockeys which always means my stakes wont be at full strength, Requited Dawn could set the pace, usually stall 12 wouldn't be great but should be ok in the make-up of this race although with amateur jockeys normal racing tactics for each horse could go out the window it could prove troublesome, I will go with dutching 3 horses in the race, INDEPENDENCE DAY 16/1 (EW) has a fast time from Chelmsford which would make it my top rated but it hasn't raced on this surface before but luckily the price allows for a bit of insurance as it can be done as an each way wager, LETMESTOPYOUTHERE 10/1 (EW) is my joint top rated on c/d times but that time was recorded in 2019 and hasn't had a recent c/d run but the jockey booking might be a positive as they have a 17% win ratio for the stable and the trainer has an 18% win rate at the course but it does drop to 14% with their older horses so it has to be an each way bet at the price, top rated on just 2020 c/d times is GORGEOUS GENERAL 11/2 and this ones trainer has an overall win ratio of 18% at this course it jumps up to 26% with their older horses.

Letmestopyouthere 12/1 (+2pts) 
Gorgeous General 10/1 4th (-1pt)
Independence Day 25/1 6th (-2pts) 

Total: -1pt

Total on the day: -3pts

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