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Friday, 11 December 2020

5:00 Newcastle Racing Tips & Lay Bets (12th December)


NEWCASTLE 5.00 

For a class 6 race this is quite a competitive affair, there's a couple of front runners among the 13 entrants and I think this race could be won from the front, I will look to lay (*Debawtry + Kaafy + *Suwaan) if in single figure prices, Longroom is one of the possible pacesetters and could do enough to make the frame but it would need others to under perform, Qaaraat is capable of winning this race if able to reproduce its best 2019 time while its best 2020 time isn't quite good enough, Fair Alibi is my 3rd top rated and this is a drop in class compared to its recent runs and could be a danger so maybe worth a covering bet but I will be relying on LORD OF THE GLEN 9/1 (EW) who is the other front running type in the race, so I am hoping this one can lead all the way in this race and at the price it might be worth doing it each way. 

* NR

Lord Of The Glen 9/1 4th (-2pts)

Lay bet: Kaafy +1pt

Total: -1pt

WOLVERHAMPTON 7.15 

Another 13 runner race with 3 known front running types apart from the 2 at the top of the handicap I cannot find anything to lay which will be of any value, El Hombre and Misty Grey could go ok in this race if reproducing their best efforts, of the likely pacesetters I think from stall 8 MERHOOB 5/1 should be able to lead in the make-up of this race and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch as on my figures its only 1lb below being top rated but that is using a 2019 time then in its defense it hasn't run over this c/d recently, my top rated is ASTRO JAKK 6/1 who won for me last time out at Newcastle and if able to reproduce that time here would just get up on the line but I will be backing them both to cover both angles. 

Astro Jakk 8/1 4th -1pt
Merhoob 10/1 5th -1pt

Total: -2pts

WOLVERHAMPTON 7.45 Div I

I cannot find a front runner in this race which always makes things hard to analyse and leaves me with very little to say about most of the runners, there is a few I could lay as they can struggle to stay the distance but if they go at a slower early pace then that might not matter but I will go with having 2 small bets in the race, one that might prosper if they go off at a slow pace is IVA REFLECTION 16/1 (EW) and this 3yo has to be considered so at the price I have to back it as an each way bet, SEPAHI 28/1 (EW) who can be held up or track the leaders and hopefully it will race prominently so as not to be caught out flat footed if something suddenly kicks from the front and maybe worth a small each way punt at the price. 

Iva Reflection 22/1 8th (-2pts) 
Sepahi 28/1 Unp (-2pts)

Total: -4pts

WOLVERHAMPTON 8.15 Div II

In this 2nd division there's 3 known front runners, shame one of them wasn't in the other division, Inevitable Outcome is my joint 2nd top rated on my speed figures and this one is usually held up for a late run and could do enough to run into a place, Paddy Power is my top rated but I had to go back to 2019 to find its best time and its recent form has been woefully short of that level this year, my other joint 2nd top rated is HEER WE GO AGAIN 10/1 (EW) who is versatile when it comes to racing tactics which does include leading, stall 10 isn't usually ideal but with only 3 that could go from the front then it can either lead or contest the lead and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch or it could track the leaders and then stay on the stronger at the finish either way at the price it has to be an each way wager.

Here We Go Again 12/1 7th (-2pt) 

Total: -2pt 

Total on the day: -9pts

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