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Showing posts with label Sepahi. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sepahi. Show all posts

Friday, 26 February 2021

2:05 Lingfield Racing Tips (27th February)


LINGFIELD 2.05 

A 7 runner race with 3 known front runners amongst the entrants and my top 2 ratings are both pace-setting types, Blue De Vegas could do best of those coming from off the pace being my 3rd top rated while my 4th top rated is Lord Riddiford who is the other front running sort in the race, Royal Birth is my 2nd top rated and is coming out of stall 6 and may need a degree of luck to gain a clear run, my money will be riding on ORNATE 11/1 who likes to lead and from stall 2 it can either lead or at least contest the lead from the off and if getting to head of affairs could prove hard to catch. 

Ornate 11/1 4th -1pt

Total -1pt

CHELMSFORD 6.30 

This race is hard to analyse as usual because of the lack of known pace setters in the field, Kylla Looks might prefer further so this race might not be run to suit it, At Your Service will be trying to stay on at the finish as long as there is a good early pace but maybe not, Shecando is usually held up for a late run and has made the frame twice from just 3 previous c/d runs, I have only got 1lb between my two top rated beasts and I will be backing them both, EXCELLENT GEORGE 3/1 is 2nd top rated and can be held up or track the leaders which are also the tactics usually deployed by SEPAHI 11/1 who comes out top rated on my figures and it could come down to which one gets a clear run when required. 

Excellent George 8/1 3rd -1pt 
Sepahi 20/1 9th -1pt 

Total -2pts 

CHELMSFORD 7.00 

A field of 8 for my final sprint of the day, they are all either 3yo’s or lightly raced 4yo’s so my stakes in this raced will not be at full strength, Lua De Mel is one of 2 known front running sorts in the race and is my 3rd top rated using a time from Lingfield in 2020, the other one that could set the pace is Portugueseprincess and this one is my 2nd top rated and it acquired that rating on its sole previous run over this c/d but could improve somewhat if allowed an easy time of things at the front of the race but my money will be riding on COME ON GIRL 15/2 who recorded a fast time in 2020 from only 2 runs over this c/d and a repeat of that time would see it winning cosily but with so many lightly raced sorts any of them could have improvement still to come.

Come On Girl 15/2 3rd -1pt 

Total on the day -4pts

Saturday, 30 January 2021

2:40 Wolverhampton Racing Tips & Lay Bets (31st January)


WOLVERHAMPTON 2.40 

I will look to lay (Alsvinder 9/2) as this isn't its favourite surface, there are another 2 I could lay but they are both big prices so not of any value, 5 of the field have been known to lead before so it should be a mad dash for the line, BUY ME BACK 7/2 drawn in stall 2 is one that likes to lead and has a decent time from Newcastle which is the same surface but hasn't run here before but it does have a better time from Lingfield which would make it my 2nd top rated, Zulu Zander and A GO GO 16/1 who are my top and 2nd top rated on recent times are from the same stable and the latter maybe worth a small each way wager as looking at jockey bookings it might be the stables main hope in this race, YOU'RE COOL 14/1 is another that could try to lead and if able to repeat its best time from 2019 it would be the winner and at the price might be worth a small each way punt. 

Buy Me Back 4/1 3rd (-1pt)
You're Cool 14/1 4th (-2pt) 
A Go Go 16/1  5th (-2pt) 

Lay bet: Alsvinder +1pt

Total: -4pts

WOLVERHAMPTON 4.10

With no known front runners in the race it could become a tactical affair so its hard to analyse the race plus I cannot see anything of value to lay, Secret Potion has a decent time from Kempton but this trip usually taxes its stamina but if this is a slow run affair it could have a chance, Madrinho would be my joint top rated if I used its best 2019 time but has been well below that level since that year, I will take a punt on SEPAHI 4/1 who showed a return to form maybe imminent when finishing 4th on its last run plus its my top rated using recent c/d times and it can either be held up or track the leaders which it will probably have to do in this race to make sure it doesn't get caught flatfooted when the pace is picked up nearing home.

Sephi 7/1 9th (-1pt)

Total on the day: -5pts

Tuesday, 26 January 2021

2:25 Lingfield Racing Tips & Lay Bets (27th January)


LINGFIELD 2.25 

Only 6 runners and I will look to lay (Jackstar who may need further to show its best and Sir Oliver who may prefer a different surface) Real Estate and Wiley Post both need to improve time wise to win this race, Tin Hat who is one from one over this c/d and could improve but is my 2nd top rated using a 2020 time while INVINCIBLE LARNE 6/4 who is top rated using a time from Chelmsford also has a decent time already from this year over this c/d and if able to reproduce its Chelmsford time it would winning a shade cosily, as you probably know I hate backing favourites but with hopefully a few pounds in hand it will get back to winning ways. 

Invincible Larne 3/1 1st (+3pts) (Betfair SP 4.4) 

Lay bet: Jack Star +1pt, Sir Oliver +1pt

Total: +5pts

LINGFIELD 3.35 

Down to 5 runners for this race at least there is 2 pacesetters in the field, Outrage could try to lead but is my 4th top rated but it is very close between all of my top 4, Verne Castle is the other possible pacesetter and comes out 3rd best but only 2lbs below my top two, SHAMSHON 11/4 is joint top rated using a 2020 time and has a good time from 2021 showing its in good form, the other joint top rated is SAHEEQ 8/1 who recorded its time in 2020 and has run this month so should be fit enough to go well, it is being ridden by a 7lb claiming apprentice which moves it to top spot on its own but his record is 0-2 so not sure what to expect but is 0-3 on its previous c/d runs so i will go with backing them both. 

Saaheq 8/1 4th -1pt 
Shamshon 3/1 5th -1pt

Total -2pts

KEMPTON 7.50

Not a great race but hey ho a winner is a winner whatever the class of race, I hope all 8 run so I can go each way with my selection, I think the pace will be set by Kindly and Turanga Leela although I'm not sure this surface will suit the latter so Kindly could go well if allowed to set the pace, Chocco Star has a good time from 2019 but hasn't been near that level since although its not run over this c/d recently, Gold Brocade has only 1 previous c/d run resulting in a low speed figure, Napping could go well if in the mood but I will be taking a punt on SEPAHI 12/1 (EW) it has a relatively slow time to its name from 2020 but its good enough to be top rated on just recent, 2020/21 times, but has a time from Chelmsford last year that makes it top rated overall on recent times and looks value to be an each way punt.

Sepahi 12/1 4th (-2pts)

Total on the day:  +1pt

Friday, 11 December 2020

5:00 Newcastle Racing Tips & Lay Bets (12th December)


NEWCASTLE 5.00 

For a class 6 race this is quite a competitive affair, there's a couple of front runners among the 13 entrants and I think this race could be won from the front, I will look to lay (*Debawtry + Kaafy + *Suwaan) if in single figure prices, Longroom is one of the possible pacesetters and could do enough to make the frame but it would need others to under perform, Qaaraat is capable of winning this race if able to reproduce its best 2019 time while its best 2020 time isn't quite good enough, Fair Alibi is my 3rd top rated and this is a drop in class compared to its recent runs and could be a danger so maybe worth a covering bet but I will be relying on LORD OF THE GLEN 9/1 (EW) who is the other front running type in the race, so I am hoping this one can lead all the way in this race and at the price it might be worth doing it each way. 

* NR

Lord Of The Glen 9/1 4th (-2pts)

Lay bet: Kaafy +1pt

Total: -1pt

WOLVERHAMPTON 7.15 

Another 13 runner race with 3 known front running types apart from the 2 at the top of the handicap I cannot find anything to lay which will be of any value, El Hombre and Misty Grey could go ok in this race if reproducing their best efforts, of the likely pacesetters I think from stall 8 MERHOOB 5/1 should be able to lead in the make-up of this race and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch as on my figures its only 1lb below being top rated but that is using a 2019 time then in its defense it hasn't run over this c/d recently, my top rated is ASTRO JAKK 6/1 who won for me last time out at Newcastle and if able to reproduce that time here would just get up on the line but I will be backing them both to cover both angles. 

Astro Jakk 8/1 4th -1pt
Merhoob 10/1 5th -1pt

Total: -2pts

WOLVERHAMPTON 7.45 Div I

I cannot find a front runner in this race which always makes things hard to analyse and leaves me with very little to say about most of the runners, there is a few I could lay as they can struggle to stay the distance but if they go at a slower early pace then that might not matter but I will go with having 2 small bets in the race, one that might prosper if they go off at a slow pace is IVA REFLECTION 16/1 (EW) and this 3yo has to be considered so at the price I have to back it as an each way bet, SEPAHI 28/1 (EW) who can be held up or track the leaders and hopefully it will race prominently so as not to be caught out flat footed if something suddenly kicks from the front and maybe worth a small each way punt at the price. 

Iva Reflection 22/1 8th (-2pts) 
Sepahi 28/1 Unp (-2pts)

Total: -4pts

WOLVERHAMPTON 8.15 Div II

In this 2nd division there's 3 known front runners, shame one of them wasn't in the other division, Inevitable Outcome is my joint 2nd top rated on my speed figures and this one is usually held up for a late run and could do enough to run into a place, Paddy Power is my top rated but I had to go back to 2019 to find its best time and its recent form has been woefully short of that level this year, my other joint 2nd top rated is HEER WE GO AGAIN 10/1 (EW) who is versatile when it comes to racing tactics which does include leading, stall 10 isn't usually ideal but with only 3 that could go from the front then it can either lead or contest the lead and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch or it could track the leaders and then stay on the stronger at the finish either way at the price it has to be an each way wager.

Here We Go Again 12/1 7th (-2pt) 

Total: -2pt 

Total on the day: -9pts