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Friday, 8 January 2021

1:29 Chelmsford Racing Tips (9th January)


CHELMSFORD 1.29 

Only 6 runners but there is 2, Merhoob and Spirit Of May, known front runners in the field Merhood has the higher speed figure for 2020 but Spirit Of May has the higher rating overall and that figure is good enough for 2nd top spot so could be dangerous if allowed an easy lead but my money will be riding on my top rated EXCELLENT GEORGE 9/2 who can be held up or track the leaders and in this small filed should be able to get a good position from which to attack nearing the finish. 

Excellent George 5/1 3rd (-1pt)

Total: -1pt

CHELMSFORD 2.04 

Again only 6 runners and it is fairly close between my top 4 rated beasts, the pace could be set by Bernie's Boy but wont be allowed to dictate in this field and would need to improve time wise to win if others ran to their best, Storm Melody and Album are my joint 3rd top rated and the latter won last time out so is in good form, Daysaq sits in 2nd top spot but is a hold up type so this race might not be run to suit its style and the jockeys 0-11 record for the stable is off-putting, so i will be backing SIR HECTOR 4/1 who is my top rated and this course will suit it better than last time at Wolverhampton when 3rd behind Album, but there is only 3lbs between my top four so my stake will be kept on the low side. 

Sir Hector 4/1 3rd (-1pt)

Total -1pt

LINGFIELD 3.25 

This isn't a race to be betting too heavily in, I will look to lay (Zulu Zander 13/2) as long as it stays at a single figure price, Flowers Of Venus could be the pacesetter but maybe not good enough to hold on for the win and I think this run might be for fitness after being off for awhile, Kindly 10/1 has a time from 2016 that would make it my 3rd top rated and hasn't had many recent c/d runs so it could possible make the frame if repeating its best and it is an each way price, COME ON GIRL 4/1 won last time out and is my top rated on just recent (2020+2021) c/d times and the horse is two wins from 2 runs over this c/d but is only 3rd best overall, MAMILLIUS 9/2 comes out 2nd best on overall figures and that is using a 2019 c/d time but had only one run over this c/d in 2020, top spot goes to INVINCIBLE LARNE 3/1 but this ones time came from Chelmsford and hasn't run over this c/d before, i will look to dutch the three of them, they are the first 3 in the betting but hey ho you can still make a profit by dutching. 

Mamillius 9/2 1st (+4.5pts)  + f/c 14.80 + t/c 57.60 (Betfair SP 4.2)
Invincible Larne 3/1 2nd (-1pt)
Come On Girl 4/1 3rd (-1pt)

Lay bets: Zulu Zander +1pt

Total: +3.5pts 

CHELMSFORD 4.45 

I was going to leave this race alone as there is quite a few lightly raced sorts, the trainer Chelsea Banham has three entries in the race, At Your Service won last time out at Wolverhampton in a decent time but its c/d times have been 10lb below that mark, Kits Allanah is only a 4yo but hasn't shown much so far but the 3rd runner INDEPENDENCE DAY 8/1 who is usually held up for a late run has a time from 2020 that makes it my top rated and if repeating that time it would win a shade cosily, so I'm hoping the betting goes in favour of the stables other runner and I get a decent price to hopefully have an each way wager.

Independence Day 8/1 5th (-2pts)

Total: -2pts

Total on the day: -0.5pts

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