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Tuesday, 19 January 2021

5:30 Southwell Racing Tips & Lay Bets (20th January)


SOUTHWELL 5.30 

Only 5 runners and 4 of them have been known to lead so it will or should be a fast run race which makes me think that (Zapper Cass) may get outpaced or if it tries to go the pace then might not stay the distance so one to lay, Zylan and Requinto Dawn could run big races but I will be hoping that YOUNG JOHN 7/2 can away smartly and then gain control of the rails and if able to reproduce its best time from 2019 it could lead all the way and get back to winning ways. 

Young John 4/1 4th -1pt

Lay bet: Zapper Cass +1pt

Total: 0pts

SOUTHWELL 7.00 

This is a poor class 6 stakes race and it will not take much winning but the biggest problem is the lack of early pace although First Excel has been known to lead but only when nothing else wants to set the pace but has only slow times recently and i had to go back to 2019 to find its best time and that would be a few pounds shy of winning this race, Amazing Amaya is 2nd best on 2020/21 c/d times but drops back to joint 5th overall alongside Red Allure, Blackcurrant is joint 3rd best using a 2019 time while GEORGE THOMAS 12/1 (EW) the other joint 3rd top rated recorded its time in 2020 and it was good enough for top spot on recent times and has to be backed each way at the price, Leo Minor is 2nd best but that time was recorded at Chelmsford a completely different surface and the jockeys 0-13 is a little off-putting, the same applies to Dubai Paradise with a poor jockey stat of 0-12 but its time was also from Chelmsford, so I will stick to recent c/d times and the selections trainer does have a 19% win rate with their older horses. 

George Thomas 18/1 Unp -2pts

Total -2pts

SOUTHWELL 7.30 

This time its another class 6 race but quite good for the class, I have found 3 that could try to set the pace, Archimedes could lead but hasn't won for awhile now and the jockeys 0-13 record is off-putting although it has run well and finished in the frame on its last 2 runs and could make the frame again here, Brandy Station is 2nd top rated if using its best Newcastle time but its 2 c/d runs have produced only low speed figures, BLUELLA 16/1 is my 3rd top rated and could do best of those coming from off the pace and the apprentice jockey has a 21% win ratio for the stable, my other selection is ARCAVALLO 11/2 who is capable of leading and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch being my top rated it would have been my sole selection apart from the jockeys 0-5 record for the stable.

Arcavallo 6/1 2nd (-1pt)
Bluella 16/1 3rd (-1pt)

Total: -2pts 

Total on the day: -4pts

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