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Monday, 18 January 2021

4:40 Southwell Racing Tips & Lay Bet (19th January)


SOUTHWELL 4.40 

I might look to lay, (Fantasy Keeper 11/2) who has recorded relatively slow times and hasn't been placed in any of its previous c/d races and (Giogiobbo 6/1) who has slow times at this distance and looks to need further to shine, there is another 3 with relatively slow times to their names and would therefore need to improve to win this race, my 4th top rated is You're Cool 9/1 who usually front runs but I'm not sure if it can lead here with 3 other potential pacesetters, Another Angel 9/1 comes out 3rd best overall using a Newcastle time as it hasn't run here before so not sure exactly what it will do on this surface, in 2nd top spot is Alsvinder 6/1 who is versatile when it comes to its racing tactics but has only a slow time to its name for its only previous c/d run which isn't enough form for me to be confident if it does or doesn't like this surface, Red Stripes 8/1 could lead and has been placed lately but the jockey is 0-7 for this stable, I think the winner should come from the four mentioned but I cannot favour any as having a better chance so the betting will be the deciding factor but I'm hoping to dutch all 4, ANOTHER ANGEL 9/1, RED STRIPES 8/1, YOU'RE COOL 9/1 and *ALSVINDER 6/1 to make a profit but it will be to low stakes. 

*NR 

You're Cool 9/1 5th (-1pt)
Another Angel 20/1 7th (-1pt)
Red Stripe 9/1 8th (-1pt)

Lay bets: Fantasy Keeper 5/1 -5pts, Giogiobbi +1pt

Total -7pts

SOUTHWELL 7.10 

Only 7 runners but still a tricky race with a few relatively lightly raced sorts in the field and this shows in the fact that I've only got 3 with recorded times, Nick Vedder 4/5 is 2 from 2 over this c/d and is my 3rd top rated and has won its last 2 races so is in rude form and could possibly complete the hattrick but can it give weight away to all of the others as its handicap rating rises, I'm not sure, Katelli 5/1 is a 4yo who improved last time out to finish 2nd and is my 2nd top rated plus the trainer does quite well at this course with a 23% win ratio with its older horses and could improve again so has to be considered as a possible winner, my top rated is the front running Archimedes 14/1 who has finished in the frame in its last 2 races but the jockeys 0-13 record for the stable is off-putting and the horse is also 0-13 over this c/d but has made the frame in 3 of those 13 races but if allowed an easy lead it could prove dangerous, I think the winner might come from the 3 mentioned but its not a race to get too heavily involved in money wise and it isn't worth dutching with an odds on shot in the race, if pushed I might go with a small wager on Archimedes just because of the price but I'm nowhere near confident enough to actually put it up as a selection.

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