3:12 Southwell Racing Tips (24th February)

SOUTHWELL 3.12 

Only 7 runners so maybe no each way bets, I will look to lay Broken Spear 8/1 who may need further and this surface might not suit it, Patsy Fagan comes out 2nd top rated but that was recorded in lower class races so might not be able to repeat those ratings in this class of race but I'm not sure I could lay it, Global Warning 5/1 may set the pace to the race and being my 3rd top rated it could take some catching but I do have SHALLOW HAL 5/1 rated higher and this one usually likes to track the leaders and then stay on the stronger at the finish.

Shallow Hal 5/1 2nd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

SOUTHWELL 3.47 

There's 9 runners this time, I could look to lay Hey Mr 6/1 if its a single figure price as this isn't its favoured surface and Corinthia Knight who hasn't been in form lately and its last AW win was back in 2018, Mulzim 28/1 might be overpriced if the tissue prices are to be believed and could possibly make the frame, AIRSHOW 7/1 might have been my sole bet in this race as its my top rated using recent c/d ratings here but the trainers 1-27 win ratio at this course is a little bit off putting plus its been 9 runners and over a month since they last had a winner, NIGHT ON EARTH 4/1 comes out top rated using Tapeta times either at Newcastle or Wolverhampton and this one usually runs on well in the closing stages of the race. 

Airshow 7/1 2nd -1pt 

Night On Earth 7/1 5th -1pt 

Total -2pts

SOUTHWELL 4.22 

A class 6 stakes race where Papa's Girl 3/1 should win being the top rated on the official handicappers ratings but is only 4th top rated on recent c/d speed figures so maybe not of value to back, I was going to look to lay Arzaak 5/1 who seems better on the Polytrack but with no known front runners in this race that might not matter too much but Gleaming Maize 8/1 may prefer further and this race might not be run to suit it so maybe worth laying if a single figure price, my money will be riding on BLUELLA 16/1 who usually stays on at the business end of a race and does look to be running into form and the stable is in good form at the present. 

Bluella 16/1 7th -1pt 

Lay bets Arzaak +1pt

Total 0pts 

NEWCASTLE 6.30 

A poor turnout of just 5 runners for this race where Alablaq might set the early pace and could be dangerous if allowed an easy lead as a longer trip might suit it better and is dropped in class to run at this level, I will look to lay Gowanlad 9/4 who might prefer a longer distance and this race might not be run to suit it plus its got poorish trainer stats with an 8% win ratio while the jockey is 2-31 and 0-18 on the stables older horses, my money will be riding on TATHMEEN 3/1 who usually tracks the leaders and then stays on strongly at the finish. 

Tathmeen 3/1 3rd -1pt 

Lay bet Gowanlad -2pts

Total -3pts

NEWCASTLE 8.00 

The pacesetter in this race is likely to e Joshua R and it could be dangerous if allowed to dominate and set its own slower early pace, Elzaal 15/2 comes out top rated but may need this run for fitness after a 136 days break, Amazing Amaya 9/2 could go well and make the frame but would need to improve a little time wise to win this race if others reproduce their previous best, I will be looking to back the top weight TANASOQ 7/1 who is a previous course and distance winner and the jockey has a 27% win ratio when riding for this stable, it should be staying on strongly in the closing stages of the race

Tanasoq 7/1 3rd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -7pts

12:30 Southwell Racing Tips (11th February)

SOUTHWELL 12.30 

There's 3 known front running types in this 9 runner race and it just might be won from the front, I will look to lay Toptime 8/1 who looks a better prospect when racing over further as its poor speed figure at this course shows, another one to lay is Brandy Station who hasn't shown anything worthwhile time wise for quite a while now including when finishing 3rd over this c/d last time out, Miss Seafire 9/1 and Brazen Arrow 4/1 could go well but the former is still a maiden after 8 runs and the latter's best rating comes from back in 2020, COOL SPIRIT 5/2 is my top rated on recent c/d speed figures and could try to lead all the way in this race and could do so but its jockey stats are relatively poor at 7% win ratio so maybe not one to back on its own, BLUELLA 22/1 at the bottom of the handicap is well weighted on its best form both at this course on recent runs and its best from Wolverhampton in 2021 so I will be backing it each way at the price but I will have to back them both to cover the angles. 

Bluella 22/1 3rd +3.4pts 

Cool Spirit 7/1 9th -1pt 

Lay bets Toptime +1pt 

Total +4.4pts

SOUTHWELL 1.00 

Lets start with something to lay in this 12 runner low class stakes race where they all carry the same weight, Louis Treize 5/1 will be trying to stay on at the finish but maybe a bit too late to win this race and isn't in my top 4 ratings but could make the frame if others falter and Captain Ryan 7/1 might not be able to lead and may then struggle so another for the lay list and finally Rhubarb 6/1 who usually stays on at the finish but again maybe too late to get up for the win, as for the winner I will be backing 2 horses, firstly BLACKCURRENT 5/2 who is a known front runner and could prove hard to catch for most of the field as it is my joint top rated on recent times at both Wolverhampton and Newcastle in 2021/22 and has good trainer/jockey stats it is also top rated on recent c/d times, I do have *LORNA COLE 11/2 with a higher rating from 2020 at Wolverhampton and has good trainer stats and usually stays on strongly at the finish over this distance so the 2 bets to cover the angles. 

Blackcurrent 5/2 5th -1pt 

Lay bet Louis Treize -3.5pts

Total -4.5pts

SOUTHWELL 4.25 

This is a poor poor race even for another low class stakes race, Dirchill could be the one to set the pace but has only poor form in its recent exertions and I think it will be an outsider, I'm not sure I could lay anything with any certainty as this race will not take much winning although I doubt Knockabout Queen 15/2 who is a hold up type can reach the front in time to win this race, INDEPENDENCE DAY 8/1 (EW) has a rating from Newcastle last year that would make it 8lb’s clear on my ratings and it did run ok last time out when finishing 3rd and has been found a good opportunity to get back to winning ways but my stakes wont be at full tilt because consistency isn't a keyword at this level and its trainer/jockey stats are nothing to write home about and stall 11 isn't ideal but if in the right mood could win this race cosily so I will be backing it and an each way price would be a bonus.

Independence Day 14/1 3rd +1.8pts 

Total +1.8pts

Total on the day +1.7pts

2:25 Southwell Racing Tips (27th Jauary)

SOUTHWELL 2.25 

I will look to lay Digital 12/1 if its value to do so because it struggles to stay this distance in a true run race, Tommy De Vito 3/1 will need to improve time wise on its Newcastle rating to win this race but when a horse wins it can bring about improvement so I cant put it up as a lay, Shallow Hal would have every chance if able to reproduce its best 2020 rating but hasn't been quite up to that level since then, MOHAREB 13/2 has the best rating on just recent c/d speed figures and being the only known front runner in the race it could go very well from the front and will be carrying some of my money but I will also be backing *ASTRO JAKK 12/1 who is a very close 2nd on recent c/d speed figures and comes out in top spot on figures from Newcastle and Wolverhampton and this one has good trainer/jockey stats. 

*NR

Mohareb 13/2 9th -1pts

Lay bet Digital +1pt, Tommy De Vito -2.75

Total -2.75pts

SOUTHWELL 2.55 

This race is hard to back down to a conclusion, Eye Of The Tiger 11/2 hasn't been in good form recently and one I will look to lay, *Decision Maker 10/1 may need this run for fitness so may be worth taking on with a lay bet, Inclement Weather 4/1 has a chance on my speed figures but the trainer is 0-3 at this course and the jockey is 0-24 for the stable so another one to consider laying, I will be covering the angles with 2 bets, TOPTIME 3/1 is one of 2 known front runners in this race it has good trainer/jockey stats and just top rated on c/d times on this new surface, the other bet is going to be on STORM OVER 20/1 also has good jockey stats but the trainer hasn't had a winner for the last 77 days but has the plum stall 1 draw and could go best of those coming from off the pace. 

*NR

Toptime 4/1 4th -1pt 

Storm Over 22/1 6th 1pt 

Lay bets Inclement Weather +1pt, Eye Of The Water +1pt

Total 0pts

SOUTHWELL 3.25 

This is a poor race with 3 known front 'runners and of that trio I will be hoping that JEANS MAITE 8/1 can do best and is 2nd top on just recent c/d times and it is only a fraction slower than GLORIOUS CHARMER 6/1 so it could be very close between the pair of them I have to add into the mix BLUELLA 16/1 who comes out top on Tapeta speed figures but from the other two courses, the trainer does quite well here but hasn't had a winner in 43 days from 20 runners, I'm not sure there is anything of value to lay and my stakes will be kept low in a race which wont take much winning. 

Jean's Maite 8/1 1st +8pts

Bluella  66/1 5th -1pt 

Glorious Charmer 8/1 7th -1pt 

Total +6pts

NEWCASTLE 6.30 

The early pace to this race could well be set by Barrington but I doubt it will be good enough for it to win but being my 4th top rated it could make the frame so maybe worth an each way bet if of value, I would look to lay Mrs Bagerran 13/2, Clear Angel 8/1 and Perfect Soldier 15/2 if they are single figure prices nearing the off, I will be splitting my bet between TELL’EM NOWT 4/1 and BERYL THE PERIL 7/2 the former will be trying to stay on at the finish as it races as though a longer trip might suit it better but has recorded what looks to be a decent speed figure on this new surface, the latter will be tracking the leaders and then stays on strongly at the finish and has good trainer/jockey stats. 

Tell'em Nowt 4/1 1st +4pts

Beryl The Peril 7/2 4th -1pt 

Lay bets Mrs Bagerran +1pt, Clear Angel +1pt

Total +5pts 

NEWCASTLE 7.00 

Only 7 runners but no obvious front runner in the field so maybe best to keep stakes low, both Porfin and Portelet Bay need to improve time wise and they both may need further to show their true merits, Blazing Hot won over c/d distance last time out but it wasn't a fast run race so maybe that result has flattered it and might be worth risking with a lay if its a short price, Tanasoq is 2nd top on my figures and will be trying to stay on at the finish but my money will be riding on TATHMEEN 5/1 who would this race if it reproduced its best 2021 speed figure and had an even better rating from 2020 which would see it winning this race a shade cosily.

Tathmeen 5/1 7th -1pt 

Lay bet Blazing Hot -2.5pts 

Total -3.5pts

Total on the day +4.75pts

2:15 Lingfield Racing Tips (7th January)

LINGFIELD 2.15 

A poor turnout of just five runner for this class 2 race, there is two front running types amongst them in the shape of Marnie James and Ornate and of the pair maybe the latter will do best of them as it does come out top on my ratings using a time from 2020 while the former comes out in 2nd top spot on just 2021/22 times, Strong Power won convincingly last time out and deserves a shot at this level, Shallow Hal might be worth taking on if a single figure price as its usually better over a longer distance, the top weight Tone The Barone 5/6 is giving a lot away in this race as its official figure is between 12 and 19 pounds higher than the others, it is forecast to be the hot favourite but I am not convinced so maybe taking this one on with a lay bet is the value call in this race as you lose very little laying a hot favourite. 

Lay bet Tone The Barone +1pt (good work from Eric laying an odds-on to lose) 

Total +1pt

WOLVERHAMPTON 4.00 

Only seven runners in this race and again there is two known front running types, Jessie Pye and Notoriously Risky who comes out 3rd best on my figures so should do best of the pair, I'm not sure if there is anything of value to lay in this race so I will be having a small wager on the top weight INEVITABLE OUTCOME 9/2 who is usually held up for a late run and this race could be run to suit it. 

Inevitable Outcome 9/2 1st +4.5pts

Total +4.5pts

WOLVERHAMPTON 5.30 

This is one of those class 6 stakes race for horses with an official rating of 50 or less so in other words the bottom of the barrel, one piece of advice if other races follow the same pattern, the form in these low class races from class 5 downwards are much more reliable than they are on turf, I've no idea of why unless its the varying going that makes them impossible to analyse. I think Final Verse 5/1 needs further to show its best so maybe worth laying in this race, Glen Rosa my 4th top rated is a possible pacesetter in this race, I've got joint 2nd top rated horses, Captain Ryan is another possible pacesetter but it only comes out 2nd top using a speed figure from 2019 so I'm not sure if it can repeat that figure as its best from last year was way below that level, the other 2nd top rated is BLUELLA 8/1 and that is using a 2021 time and should be staying on in the closing stages of the race but I do have BLACKCURRENT 6/1 rated higher but in this ones case the speed figure comes from Newcastle which it recorded last time out last month and if able to reproduce that figure it would be winning this race a shade cosily and does have good jockey stats.

Blackcurrent 6/1 1st (dht) +3pts  

Bluella 12/1 8th -1pt 

Lay bet Final Verse +1pt 

Total +3pts 

Total on the day +8.5pts 

6:00 Chelmsford Racing Tips (23rd October)

CHELMSFORD 6.00 

A twelve runner race where seven of them, Shanghai Rock, San Juan, Portias Pearl, Red Stripes, Tittleys Rock, Lady Susie and Tilsworth Valerie, are either out of form or not shown any worthwhile form to date, I would hope to lay Jaffathegaffa 7/1 who I think might need further to show its best and this race might not be run to suit it, Howzak 3/1 has been known to lead before but over 6 furlongs so I'm not sure if it will be away quick enough to lead now its dropped to 5 furlongs but could be staying on at the finish and its best speed figure recorded here over 6 furlongs would make it mt top rated but I'm not sure that figure can be used in the context of this shorter distance race so neither a lay or a bet but I am hoping it doesn't cope with this drop in distance although it looks as though the bookies think it will handle to drop to 5 furlongs but looks too short in my opinion to take that risk but whether I've got the heart to lay it just because of the poor value, Rockesbury 5/1 is my 3rd top rated and should be staying on at the finish as I think a longer distance suits it better but isn't my idea of an each way price, Swell Song 13/2 is my 2nd top rated and is the one I think will lead in this race and the stall 1 draw will certainly help its cause BUT the trainer is 0-12 in the last 2 weeks and this 5yo is still a maiden after having had 24 races, it has made the frame in 7 of those races so could make the frame again in this race, my money will be riding on BLUELLA 7/2 who has only had one previous run on a polytrack surface where it was held up and in a relatively slow run race couldn't make any inroads close home but still recorded a time that would give it every chance here and the apprentices 3lb claim could be what tips things in its favour and the trainer has a 2-10 strike rate at this course. 

Bluella 7/2 6th -1pt 

Total -1pt  

CHELMSFORD 7.00 

Eight runners in this five furlong dash with half the field having been known to lead before so it should be fast and furious but I think it will be set up for something coming from off the pace. I Am A Dreamer 14/1 has got stall 2 the nearest of the front runners to the rails but I'm not sure if this one will be away fast enough in this race to make the stall 2 draw count as it might be better when raced over further and may get outpaced at this distance on this fast surface but isn't any value to lay at the price, Maajdah 5/2 and Araifjan 9/2 could do best of those racing to the fore with the former being a 3yo and the latter being my 3rd top rated horse and this horse is usually a good yardstick when on song and could make the frame but isn't an each way price, the top weight YIMOU 4/1 is my top rated using just 2021 course and distance times which is usually a positive tick beside its name and another tick could be that it is dropped in class to what its usually faced recently so has to be given a good chance in this race but I do have GARTH ROCKETT 16/1 (EW) rated just 1lb higher using this ones best time form 2020 a tick in this ones favour is that it has good trainer, 19% and jockey, 35%, stats and I the main reason I will be backing it is because of the price which looks generous I do think it has a decent each way chance.

Yimou 4/1 3rd -1pt 

Garth Rockett 18/1 6th -2pts 

Lya bets: Araifjan -3.33, Maajdah +1pt 

Total -5.33pts 

Total on the day -6.33pts

2:15 Southwell Racing Tips (12th February)

SOUTHWELL 2.15 

Only up to 6 runners for this race I think the pace will be set by Requinto Dawn who comes out 3rd best on my figures, Too Shy Shy may prefer further before it performs to its best, Global Hope hasn't won from 3 previous c/d runs, Vape comes out 4th best but runs on at the finish as though a longer distance might be required, I've got joint top rated horses, EXCESSABLE 5/2 who likes to track the leaders and has won twice and placed 3 times from its 5 c/d runs and has good trainer/jockey stats, *NICK VEDDER 11/4 is the other joint top rated and is usually held up for a late run and also has good jockey stats, they are not big prices and I cannot split them so it might come down to which one of them gets the clearest run in the race and i will be backing them both. 

*NR 

Excessable 5/2 2nd (-1pt)

Total -1pt

SOUTHWELL 3.15 

In this field of 9 runners I can see 2 that like to lead and another that is versatile with its tactics and that does include leading, i think of the front runners that Blackcurrant may do best and after leading all the way to win last time out over this c/d but the pace it set wasn't that fast and the speed figure didn't register on my graphs, I think the opposition thought it would fade as it hadn't led before but it kept enough in reserve to repel the opposition, I doubt it will be allowed an easy time in this race, but it does come out 3rd best on my figures using a time from 2019 so could or should make the frame, Catapult is my 2nd top rated but that time also was recorded in 2019 and isn't a fan of a fast early pace but does usually stay on at the finish if the early pace isn't too hot, I will be putting my faith in BLUELLA 11/2 who finished 3rd behind Blackcurrant last time out but that race wasn't run to suit but i think with a faster pace it could pick it up this time.

Bluella 6/1 5th (-1pt) 

Total on the day: -2pts

5:30 Southwell Racing Tips & Lay Bets (20th January)

SOUTHWELL 5.30 

Only 5 runners and 4 of them have been known to lead so it will or should be a fast run race which makes me think that (Zapper Cass) may get outpaced or if it tries to go the pace then might not stay the distance so one to lay, Zylan and Requinto Dawn could run big races but I will be hoping that YOUNG JOHN 7/2 can away smartly and then gain control of the rails and if able to reproduce its best time from 2019 it could lead all the way and get back to winning ways. 

Young John 4/1 4th -1pt

Lay bet: Zapper Cass +1pt

Total: 0pts

SOUTHWELL 7.00 

This is a poor class 6 stakes race and it will not take much winning but the biggest problem is the lack of early pace although First Excel has been known to lead but only when nothing else wants to set the pace but has only slow times recently and i had to go back to 2019 to find its best time and that would be a few pounds shy of winning this race, Amazing Amaya is 2nd best on 2020/21 c/d times but drops back to joint 5th overall alongside Red Allure, Blackcurrant is joint 3rd best using a 2019 time while GEORGE THOMAS 12/1 (EW) the other joint 3rd top rated recorded its time in 2020 and it was good enough for top spot on recent times and has to be backed each way at the price, Leo Minor is 2nd best but that time was recorded at Chelmsford a completely different surface and the jockeys 0-13 is a little off-putting, the same applies to Dubai Paradise with a poor jockey stat of 0-12 but its time was also from Chelmsford, so I will stick to recent c/d times and the selections trainer does have a 19% win rate with their older horses. 

George Thomas 18/1 Unp -2pts

Total -2pts

SOUTHWELL 7.30 

This time its another class 6 race but quite good for the class, I have found 3 that could try to set the pace, Archimedes could lead but hasn't won for awhile now and the jockeys 0-13 record is off-putting although it has run well and finished in the frame on its last 2 runs and could make the frame again here, Brandy Station is 2nd top rated if using its best Newcastle time but its 2 c/d runs have produced only low speed figures, BLUELLA 16/1 is my 3rd top rated and could do best of those coming from off the pace and the apprentice jockey has a 21% win ratio for the stable, my other selection is ARCAVALLO 11/2 who is capable of leading and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch being my top rated it would have been my sole selection apart from the jockeys 0-5 record for the stable.

Arcavallo 6/1 2nd (-1pt)

Bluella 16/1 3rd (-1pt)

Total: -2pts 

Total on the day: -4pts

2:15 Southwell Racing Tips (17th December)

SOUTHWELL 2.15 

Slowmo might not like this surface so a lay, Arzaak is my 3rd top rated so could make the frame, Precious Plum has led before but outside my top 4 ratings, Suwaan not shown much time wise for quite awhile so a lay, Loulin just outside my top 4 ratings, Red Stripes could make all and my 2nd top rated, George Thomas 4th top on my list could make the frame if others falter, Gossip poor recent form and may prefer further, Tan outside my top 4 ratings and may like further, Bluella top on my speed figures and will b staying on at the finish. 

SUMMARY: There's a few I could lay if they are of any value to lay, I will be backing two horses, firstly there's RED STRIPES 13/2 who could possibly lead here and then be hard to catch and is only 1lb below BLUELLA 9/1 who is my top rated so this one would need a near perfect ride to catch the leader but its so close on my figures I cannot really split them.

Bluella 9/1 4th (-1pt)

Red Stripes 13/2 5th (-1pt) 

Total -2pts 

SOUTHWELL 5.45 

Spring Romance is in good form but mainly in relatively slow run affairs only 4th top on my figures, Little Red Socks hasn't any course form and needs to improve for the switch to this surface, Napping only slow c/d times and this course doesn't seem to suit it so one to lay, Bartat a known front runner but maybe better over further and not quick enough to lead here, Pearl Of Qatar versatile with its racing tactics and is my 2nd top rated, Antagonize no distance form on the AW not sure what to expect so no bet or lay, Dirchill slow time from a sole c/d run, could try to lead but is 0-16 on the AW not sure this surface will suit, The Golden Cue my 3rd top rated on a c/d time its win last time out was a slow run affair could make the frame, Archimedes another one that likes to lead and stall 2 looks ideal plus its my top rated, Pilgrims Pursuit only shown poor form recently, Alqaab also poor recent form. 

SUMMARY: A few I could lay depending on the betting but as for my bets to win this race I will again be backing two horses as they are too close to split, ARCHIMEDES 18/1(EW) who is a front runner is my top rated and also has stall 1 so could lead all the way and at the price has to be an each way bet as it has been known to bounce back to form without warning before, it is only 1lb above PEARL OF QATAR 7/1 and this one has very good trainer/jockey stats and from stall 4 it could lead or at least contest the lead from the off or sit on the rails just behind the leader ready to pounce.

 

Pearl Of Qatar 7/1 4th (-1pt)

Archimedes 40/1 8th (-2pts)

Total: -3pts 

Total on the day: -5pts

12:01 Southwell Racing Tips (6th December)

SOUTHWELL 12.01 5f Class 6 

SLOWMO 9/2 this possible front runner has won over this c/d before but in a slow run affair and looking at its overall form I don't think this surface suits it but it is trier and could make the frame but I am not sure it will be an each way price.

PEARL ACCLAIM 16/1 hasn't run for 672 days and usually needs a run to get it to fitness and its best figure from 2108 could see it make the frame at best I would look to lay it but I think it will be a biggish price.

RED STRIPES 14/1 a possible pacemaker who has a time from this year but before lockdown in March that would make it 2nd top rated overall but hasn't shown much recently so not for me and i think it will be an outsider.

LOULIN 4/1 always runs as though further would suit it better its best time from 2019 would see it just outside my top 3 ratings, I will look to lay it as I think it will be a shortish price just because it won its last race. 

NAJAVO DAWN 8/1 this 3yo has only slow c/d times to its name and its recent form has been poor and another who I think will be an outsider if not I will lay it.

CHARLES LE BRUN 4/1 this 3yo has never run on the AW before but it has won over this distance with cut in the ground on turf so this surface might suit so it could be a hidden danger TAN 125/1 hasn't shown much lately and its best from last year would still see it struggling to make the frame and will be a big outsider. 

TILSWORTH ROSE 9/1 hasn't only one slow run over this c/d to its name this year, looking at its best from 2019 would still leave it short and one I will look to lay if a single figure price.

AMAZING AMAYA 15/2 this one hasn't shown much at all since the first lockdown and even the time from early this year isn't quite good enough to win and might be worth laying.

BLUELLA 9/2 luckily the draw, stall 13, isn't a problem racing on the straight course here and if this front runner gets to the front in this race its capable of holding on for the win.

ARCHIMEDES 20/1 has been known to lead before but just lately its not shown much enthusiasm although it is my 3rd top rating if bouncing back to form. 

NELLIE FRENCH 50/1 the 3rd 3yo in the race it has only a slow time over this c/d and hasn't made the frame in all seven races its had to date and looks to be an outsider. 

WALTON THORNS 25/1 the 4th and final 3yo who is a maiden without making the frame in 8 previous races and looks to be another outsider.

ANGEL EYES 33/1 this 5yo is a maiden after 19 races it has made the frame twice but it looks another also ran in the race. 

SUMMARY: There are bad class 6 races and then there's this class 6 race, I've been trying to find something worthwhile to work with but its been a struggle and my stake in this race will be kept low, there's quite a few I could lay but I think some if not all will be big prices so I will stick with having 2 bets in the race, the 3yo CHARLES LE BRUN 4/1 looks as though it could be a danger and will be carrying some of my money as will BLUELLA 9/2 who could go well from the front and may prove hard to catch if getting the lead, so 2 bets to cover the angles.

Charles Le Brun 4/1 3rd (-1pt)

Bluella 17/2 Unp (-1pt) 

Lay bets: Slowmo 6/1 -6pts, Loulin +1pt, Navajo Dawn +1pt

Total on the day -6pts 

12:20 Southwell Racing Tips (17th November)

SOUTHWELL 12.20 5f Div I

There's 3 known front runners in this race, the top 3 in the handicap but its a low grade 6 affair, A Go Go from stall 9 might do best of them, Ustath has been in good form and comes out 2nd best on my figures but isn't big enough to back each way the same applies to Dark Side Dream who is a 3yo and my 3rd top rated, my money will be riding on AWAKE IN ASIA 14/1 (EW) who will be staying on strongly at the finish and with plenty of early pace in the race it might be run to suit it and looks worth an each way punt at the price. 

Awake In Asia 33/1 5th -2pts

Total: -2pts

SOUTHWELL 12.50 5f Div II

There's no known front runners in this 2nd division which always makes a race hard to analyse, I've got joint 3rd top rated horses in Raabeh and Loulin but both of themes best time was recorded in 2019, in 2nd top spot is Time To Reason 12/1 and might be worth an each way punt but my money will be on BLUELLA 5/1 who will hope there's a decent early pace as it likes to stay on strongly at the finish. 

Bluella 5/1 3rd - 1pt 

Total: -1pt

SOUTHWELL 3.50 6f 

The top weight Pearl Of Qatar is my 4th top rated and versatile when it comes to racing tactics, 3rd best on my figures is Global Humor who likes to track the leaders, Requited has a time from 2019 that would make it my top rated but its best from this year has been well below that level and its an outsider in the betting, i am hoping that KRAKA 7/1 from stall 9 can either lead or at least contest the lead and then prove hard to catch if getting to the front, it is my top rated on 2020 c/d times and 2nd top overall. 

Kraka 7/1 8th -1pt

Total: -1pt

NEWCASTLE 6.45 6f Div I

This 1st division is full of 3yo’s, seven in number and other lightly raced sorts and I was going to leave the race alone until I saw the betting, Kommander Kirkup 25/1 could be an each way bet if bouncing back to form, Kilconquaar is another that could go well but isn't really an each way price but I will be having a small each way punt on STAR CRACKER 14/1 (EW) who is a known front runner and could go better than the price suggests. 

Star Cracker 22/1 Unp  (-2pts)

Total: -2pts 

NEWCASTLE 7.15 6f Div II 

This 2nd division isn't much better with a limited amount of data to work with, Burtonwood has some form from last year and even better form from 2017 that would put it in the mix, Etikaal could also go well but I will be having a small bet on PHANTASMAL 9/1 (EW) and at the price it might be worth backing each way.